TYPHOON PARMA/PEPING NEARS PAR; TS 18W LASHED SOUTHEN GUAM AS NEW TS MELOR APPROACHES SOUTHEN GUAM ANEW

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P SEPTEMBER 30, 2009)


TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)

CATEGORY 1

LOCATION: 9.47N, 136.34E (840KM E MINDANAO [130KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 974MB
WINDSPEED: 65-80KT (120-148KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 12KT/22KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13.5KM HIGH 110KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -74.07C (CDO)
CONVECTION: STRONG-SEVERE (-70.07C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-80KT/139-148KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 983.1MB VMAX: 62KT/114KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.1MB VMAX: 63KT/117KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 987.5 MB VMAX: 55KT/102KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 95-120KPH


TROPICAL STORM 18W

LOCATION: 13.49N, 144.92E (WSW SOUTHERN GUAM [990KM E PAR])
MSLP: 996MB
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT (65-83KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 15KT/28KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 13KM HIGH 450KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +7.59C (SHEARED)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-12.87C)
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.6MB VMAX: 36KT/67KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1000.2MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 999.0MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1002.1 MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

LOCATION: 12.06N, 154.99E (920KM ESE OF SOUTHERN GUAM [2000KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 993MB
WINDSPEED: 40-50KT (74-93KPH)
MOVEMENT: NW 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 13.5KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -63.00C
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-63.20C)
NEXT 12HRS: 45-50KT/83-93KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 987.7MB VMAX: 53KT/98KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 991.1 MB VMAX: 47KT/50KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 986.1MB VMAX: 57KT/72KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.9 MB VMAX: 55KT/57KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1001.9 MB VMAX: 38KT/54KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH



JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON KETSANA (ONDOY) AND THE TRIPLET SYSTEM (PARMA/PEPING, 18W AND 90W INVEST)

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P SEPTEMBER 29, 2009)

LATEST IMAGERY OF KETSANA AND THE TRIPLET

TYPHOON KETSANA (17W/ONDOY)

CATEGORY 2
LOCATION: 15.45N, 109.15E (15KM E VIETNAM)
MSLP: 955MB
WINDSPEED: 90-105KT (167-194KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW-W 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: 25MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +5C AT 13KM HIGH 125KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -51.86C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-73.35C)
NEXT 12HRS: 90KT/167KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 955.7MB VMAX: 90KT/167KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 954.1MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 954.0MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 959.1MB VMAX: 87KT/161KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 947.6 MB VMAX: 93KT/172KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: N/A KPH


TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W/PEPING)

LOCATION: 8.24N, 139.23E (CAROLINE ISLANDS [425KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 994MB
WINDSPEED: 40-50KT (74-93KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 15KT/28KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 12.5KM HIGH 190KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -66.75C
CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-59.47C)
NEXT 12HRS: 45-50KT/83-93KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 995.0MB VMAX: 38KT/71KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 995.8MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 995.8MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 993.4MB VMAX: 41KT/76KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 998.9 MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 55KPH



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W

LOCATION: 10.74N, 151.32E (CAROLINE IS [1630KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 19MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 13.5KM HIGH 220KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -33.63C
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-31.83C)
NEXT 12HRS: 35-40KT/65-74KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 997.5MB VMAX: 41KT/76KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 997.5MB VMAX: 41KT/76KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 997.5MB VMAX: 41KT/76KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1002.5 MB VMAX: 29KT/54KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH



SEVERE ALERT 90W INVEST

LOCATION: 9.3N, 161.6E (CAROLINE ISLANDS [2660KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC
CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40-45KT/74-83KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1004.5 MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON KETSANA APPROACHES VIETNAM, TWIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHES PHILIPPINES ANEW

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P SEPTEMBER 28, 2009)



TYPHOON KETSANA/17W (ONDOY)

CATEGORY 1 STAGE
LOCATION: 9.51N, 155.17E (CAROLINE IS [2017KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: SW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 19MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +10.95C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5-6 (-41.14C)
NEXT 12HRS: 35-40KT/65-74KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.65MB VMAX: 38KT/70KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 999.0MB VMAX: 39KT/72KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.3MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W

STRONG STAGE
LOCATION: 9.51N, 155.17E (CAROLINE IS [2017KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: SW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 19MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +10.95C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5-6 (-41.14C)
NEXT 12HRS: 35-40KT/65-74KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.65MB VMAX: 38KT/70KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 999.0MB VMAX: 39KT/72KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.3MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W

STRONG STAGE
LOCATION: 9.45N, 143.73E (CAROLINE ISLANDS [870KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +68.93C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5-6 (-57.90C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40-45KT/74-83KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 996.7MB VMAX: 36KT/66KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1000MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 993.4MB VMAX: 41KT/76KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : N/A MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

REASON OF FLOODINGS AT METRO MANILA IN THE HEIGHT OF TROPICAL STORM KETSANA/ONDOY

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL STORM ONDOY

For those who still want to know how and why a never seen before flooding over metro manila, Rizal and other nearby provinces, take a look for all imagery below.

TOTAL 24 HOUR RAINFALL
a high of 900mm or more established by TRMM TOVAS over Metro manila, cavite, bataan, Zambales, Rizal, Bulacan.


Deepest and intense convection (thunderclouds), started to develop ese of polilio island.

As it nears land, this intense thunderclouds build more and eventually growing after an hr along polilio island.

1 hr before landfall, deepest and intense convection (average rainrate, 40-50mm/hr) still building up and eventually affects polilio is., Northern Quezon and Laguna.


a white color you see in the imagery was a deepest and intense convection (thunderstorm) (very strong and very high cloudtop which almost overshoot near troposhere). Along this area where a heaviest rainfall rate at +50mm/hr or more with strongest and violent thunderstorms can be felt here.

Despite of landfall over the highest mountain range in Eastern Luzon (Sierra Madre) this intense thunderstorms unusual to exist for the next 2-3hrs.

For complete imagery see looping satelite imagery below

LOOPING IMAGERY BEFORE-DURING-AFTER IT HIT LAND:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=WP172009&starting_image=2009WP17_4KMIRIMG_200909251530.GIF&ending_image=2009WP17_4KMIRIMG_200909260830.GIF


Note: A golden yellow and dark gray color already indicates severe thunderstorms along the area (heavy rainfall at rate of +40mm/hr rain). This tropical storm already established as one of most severe and intense system ever developed in terms of rainfall (same with tropical storm uring that hits Leyte november of 1991 which killed thousands of people in ormoc).



JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (ONDOY) THREATHENS QUEZON-AURORA AREA, LIKELY TO INTENSIFY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (ONDOY)

LOCATION: 14.15N, 128.27E (675KM E NORTHERN QUEZON)
MSLP: 998MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 11KT/20KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 9KM HIGH 25KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +17.22C (SHEARED)
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5-6 (+8.67C)
NEXT 12HRS: 30-35KT/56-65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1002.4MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1003.0MB VMAX: 25KT/46KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1001.8MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1003.2MB VMAX: 28KT/52KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55KPH


ALERT 98W INVEST

LOCATION: 8.2N, 164.6E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1010MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +0C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 3-4 (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 20-25KT/37-46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1006.7MB VMAX: 18KT/33KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


SEVERE ALERT 95W INVEST

LOCATION: 17.0N, 107.4E (VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 13MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +0C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 4-6 (0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1004.7MB VMAX: 24KT/44KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

SEVERE ALERT 97W INVEST (JMA: DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 28.2, 139.8E (SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN)
MSLP: 1008MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: N SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 2MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13KM HIGH 350KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +0C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 1-2 (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 20-25KT/37-46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 1007.3MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


ALERT 99W INVEST

LOCATION: 6.0N, 149.5E (CAROLINE ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1008MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +0C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 4-6 (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 20-25KT/37-46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WEAKENING FURTHER MOVING MORE POLEWARD

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 18, 2009

WIND STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

CLOUD STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

EYE OF CHOI-WAN


TYPHOON CHOI-WAN/15W (CATEGORY 3)*

LOCATION: 23.77N, 138.78E
MSLP: 941MB
WINDSPEED: 110-140KT (204-259KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW 7KT/13KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +8C AT 13KM HIGH 50KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +4.49C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 4-5 (-54.11C)
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 941.2MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 927.1MB VMAX: 120KT/222KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

*Downgraded from super tyhoon status (category 4)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

CHOI-WAN WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS DANGEROUS, THREATHENS IWO-JIMA ISLANDS

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 17, 2009

WIND STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

EYE AND EYEWALL OF CHOI-WAN

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN/15W (CATEGORY 4)

LOCATION: 20.78N, 140.47E
MSLP: 922MB
WINDSPEED: 135-165KT (250-306KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +8C AT 13KM HIGH 55KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +10.60C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5 (-69.25C)
NEXT 12HRS: 130-135KT/241-250KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 908.6MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 908.6MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 908.6MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 908.6MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 896.6MB VMAX: 144KT/269KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

CHOI-WAN REACHED CATEGORY 5

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 16, 2009

STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

EYE OF CHOI-WAN


SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN/15W (CATEGORY 5)

LOCATION: 18.96N, 142.72E (310 KM W MARIANAS ISLANDS)
MSLP: 918MB
WINDSPEED: 140-170KT (259-315KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +5C AT 13KM HIGH 60KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +14.73C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 5 (-72.26C)
NEXT 12HRS: 145-150KT/269-278KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 915.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 915.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 915.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 915.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

SUPER TYPHOON (CATEGORY 4) CHOI-WAN LASHING MARIANAS ISLAND

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 15, 2009

STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

EYE OF CHOI-WAN NEARS MARIANAS IS

SUPER TYPHOON (CATEGORY 4) CHOI-WAN/15W

LOCATION: 17.51N, 146.02E (20 KM E MARIANAS ISLANDS)
MSLP: 929MB
WINDSPEED: 125-155KT (232-287KPH)
MOVEMENT: NW 6KT/11KPH
RAINRATE: 11MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +4C AT 13.1KM HIGH 50KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +14.51C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 6 (-75.06C)
NEXT 12HRS: 140KT/260KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 907.5MB VMAX: 134KT/248KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 906.4MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 909.6MB VMAX: 132KT/245KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 906.4MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 141944Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. TY 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION WAS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW MECHANISMS ALOFT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 142330Z INFRARED IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
RISE IN PEAK INTENSITY FOLLOWING THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION

TY CHOI-WAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, ALBEIT LESS RAPIDLY, AS IT MOVES THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM WATERS. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE TRACK OF TY 15W WILL NO LONGER SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, CHOI-WAN WILL START TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR MENTIONED.

AFTER TAU 72, CHOI-WAN WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING
NORTH KOREA WILL ERODE THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, WITH JGSM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE FAR WEST AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AIDS INCONSISTENT ON TRACK SPEED. AFTER TAU 48, THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE MODELS COUPLE TRACK SPEED INCONSISTENCIES WITH RECURVATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES, ATTRIBUTED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO TRACK, AND IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO CORRECT FOR KNOWN CONSENSUS TENDENCIES IN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MARING NOW OVER VIETNAM, NANDO THREATHENS LUZON AS NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W DEVELOPED

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2009

LATEST IR IMAGERY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MINIMAL)

9-12-09 3P

LOCATION: 14.45N, 152.40E (660 KM E MARIANAS ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: 0MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -49.03C
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.8MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1001.8MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 997.6MB VMAX: 34KT/63KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.0MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112117Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SITTING UNDERNEATH THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 112330Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 112349Z TRMM IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY UTILIZES DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW (T1.5) AND KNES (T2.0)

TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE DATE LINE AND EXTENDS TOWARDS EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL-CHANNEL, UPPER-LEVEL OUFLOW. THE TUTT AND TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BETWEEN TAU'S 72 AND 120, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND CONTINUE ITS INTENSITY TREND AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE. THERE IS LIMITED INTENSITY GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT, SO THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR THE TRACK, THIS FORECAST IS SIDING WITH THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMF SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN THE NOGAPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A POLEWARD BIAS THIS SEASON*

SEVERE ALERT 91W (NANDO)

LOCATION: 16.1N, 125.9E (370KM E CASIGURAN, AURORA)
MSLP: 1004.7MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 12.9KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 25-30KT/46-56KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55KPH

DISCUSSION:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 127.1E TO 19.4N 119.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112212Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112157Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SHOWED AN IMPROVED, STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEARTHE CENTER. STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK ARE SHOWN BUT ARE SUSPECT SINCE THEY ARE SURROUNDED BY RAINFLAGGED DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION (A8ME4) WEST OF THE CENTER AT 111900Z INDICATED 22 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD*

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W /MUJIGAE (MARING)


LOCATION: 20.01N, 105.45E (NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 13MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 11KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MLSP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP :N/A VMAX: N/A KPH

*SOURCE: NOAA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

DUJUAN/LABUYO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING MOVING SLOWLY AWAY

9-4-09 1P

TROPICAL STORM 13W/DUJUAN (LABUYO)

LOCATION: 17.74N, 129.45E (745KM E TUGUEGARAO, CAGAYAN)
MSLP: 992.0MB
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT (65-83KPH)
MOVEMENT: NE SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 22MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C AT 13KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -71.63C
NEXT 12HRS: 40-45KT/74-83KPH

DVORAK
MLSP :992.46MB VMAX: 42KT/78KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP: 997.0MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(RSMC): MSLP: 988.2MB VMAX: 49KT/91KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP: 992.2MB VMAX: 43KT/80KPH


SEVERE ALERT 95W (JMA: MINIMAL DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 15.7N, 109.4E (40KM E OF NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1001.0MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 11.9KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH

DVORAK
MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A
(RSMC): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A
(CIMSS): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A


WARNING 97W INVEST

LOCATION: 8.0N, 154.0E (CAROLINE ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1010.0MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
DVORAK: MSLP: N/A VMAX: N/A
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A
(RSMC): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A
(CIMSS): MLSP :N/A VMAX: N/A

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

93W INVEST/ LABUYO THREATHENS NORTHERN LUZON

IMAGERY OF 93W INVEST (LABUYO)

WESTERN PACIFIC OUTLOOK

93W (LABUYO) STRUCTURE

93W (LABUYO) CLOSE UP



93W INVEST (LABUYO)

PAGASA: TROPICAL STORM
JMA/RSMC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JTWC: ACTIVE INVEST

9-3-09 1P
LOCATION: 18.26N, 129.84E (764KM E APPARI, CAGAYAN)
MSLP: 998.0MB
WINDSPEED: 20-30KT (37-56KPH)
DVORAK: MSLP: 997.0 VMAX: 35KT (65KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 19MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 12KM HIGH 350KM RADIUS
DVORAK: -19.64C
NEXT 12HRS: 30-35KT/56-65KPH


SEVERE ALERT 95W INVEST

LOCATION: 16.5N, 111.0E (400KM E OF NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1002.0MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
DVORAK: MSLP: N/A VMAX: N/A
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 19MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 11KM HIGH 430KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH

WARNING 97W INVEST

LOCATION: 8.2N, 150.3E (CAROLINE ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1010.0MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
DVORAK: MSLP: N/A VMAX: N/A
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 23MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK