TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W INVEST AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST MONSOON EXPECTS TO BRING MORE RAINS TOMORROW

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 4p[6:30UTC] MAY 31, 2009)
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UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAINRATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

PRESSURE

WIND ANALYSIS

92W INVEST WIND ANALYSIS

92W INVEST CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP


WATCH 92W INVEST
LOCATION: 13.6N, 119.2E
WINDSPEED: 15KT/28KPH
SLP: 1006.0MB
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
VORTICES: FAIR
EYE TEMP: 0.0C
SHEAR: 20KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: POOR

COVERED (MAY 30-31 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
45.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
52.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
53.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
53.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23
58.00 mm CORON/CALAMIAN GRP 12.00 120.20
61.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
64.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
64.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
67.00 mm CUYO ISLANDS 10.85 121.03
74.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
107.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32

COVERED (MAY 29-31 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
131.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
133.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
133.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
147.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
173.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02

COVERED (MAY 25-31 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm above rainfall

91W DEVELOPED, SHEAR RELAXES OVER SOUTHCHINA SEA, MONSOON SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 1p[3:30UTC] MAY 29, 2009)
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VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAIN RATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

WIND ANALYSIS

91W WIND

91W CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP


WARNING 91W

LOCATION: 7.2N, 131.1E
WINDSPEED: 15KT/28KPH
SLP: 1010.0MB
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
VORTICES: FAIR
EYE TEMP: 0.0C
SHEAR: 7.5KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: FAIR

91W expected to intensify as warm SST and low windshear and good upper divergence and pole ward outflow supports its intensification.



COVERED (MAY 27-28 21:00UTC) 1 DAY
No 30mm above rainfall


COVERED (MAY 25-28 21:00UTC) 3 DAYS
106.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97


COVERED (MAY 22-28 21:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm above rainfall

HIGH SHEAR TOAR DEEP CONVECTIONS, OVERCAST SKIES MORE LIKELY

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 11A[2:30UTC] MAY 28, 2009)
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WIND ANALYSIS

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR


RAINRATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE PRESENT AS OF THE MOMENT

FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LUZON, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS, WEAK MONSOON TROUGH OVER MINDANAO

High vertical windshear (high of 50kt) over South China sea inhibit some formation of deep convection along the area resulted to more overcast skies as evident of many cirrus clouds over the area. The said shear will remain high over the next 2-3days afterward expected to relax as broad low shear over SW China expected to move more Eastward that will lead to more deep convection along South China sea.

COVERED (MAY 26-27 18:00UTC) 1 DAY
38.00 mm ILIGAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.15 124.22
56.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
57.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
60.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

COVERED (MAY 25-27 18:00UTC) 3 DAYS
no 100mm above rainfall

COVERED (MAY 21-27 18:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm above rainfall

SOUTHWEST MONSOON APPROACHING, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED STARTING TODAY

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 3P[6:30UTC] MAY 27, 2009)
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WIND ANALYSIS

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAINRATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE AND/OR WEATHER DISTURBANCE AS OF THE MOMENT

FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LUZON, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS, WEAK MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER MINDANAO

Broad frontal system associated by low pressure trough near Taiwan expected to enhance SW windflow over Luzon and western Visayas that will brings light-heavy rains/thunderstorm starting today. Within the next 2-3days SW monsoon will arrived that will bring occassional rain/TS over Luzon and Western Visayas.

COVERED (MAY 25-26 18:00UTC) 1 DAY

36.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

39.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97

50.00 mm DIPOLOG/MINDANAO IL 8.60 123.35

COVERED (MAY 24-26 18:00UTC) 3 DAYS

no 100mm above rainfall

COVERED (MAY 20-26 18:00UTC) 7 DAYS

no 200mm above rainfall

RIDGE OF HIGH CONTINUES, HOT WEATHER EXPECTED

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 10P[13:30UTC] MAY 26, 2009)
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WIND ANALYSIS

VORTICES

RAIN RATE


RAIN ANALYSIS

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED AS OF THE MOMENT

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LUZON AND VISAYAS

Though ridge of high still persist, a long wave trough expected to weakens this ridge which will allow slowly SW windflow to prevail within the next 3-5 days.

RIDGE OF HIGH BRINGS HOT AND CLEAR WEATHER

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 10P[13:30UTC] MAY 25, 2009)
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WIND

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAINRATE

RAINANALYSIS

CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE PRESENT AS OF THIS TIME

NO RAINFALL ABOVE 30-200MM

Ridge of high over Luzon which extend over Visayas bring clearer skies for the next 2 days.

99W INTENSIFYING, 90W STRUGGLE

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 1P[3:30UTC] MAY 22, 2009)
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TRACT

WIND

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAIN RATE

RAIN ANALYSIS

99W CONVECTION

90W CONVECTION

99W WIND

90W WIND

ALERT 99W
LOCATION: 15.5N, 112.4E
WINDSPEED: 15KT/28KPH
SLP: 1008.2MB
MOVEMENT: NW AT 10KT/19KPH
VORTICES: FAIR
EYE TEMP: 1.0C
SHEAR: 7.5KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: FAIR

WARNING 90W
LOCATION: 3.1N, 135.2E
WINDSPEED: 10-15KT/19-28KPH
SLP: 1008.7MB
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
VORTICES: FAIR
EYE TEMP: 0.5C
SHEAR: 10KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: WEAK AT 10KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: POOR

COVERED (MAY 20-21 21:00UTC) 1 DAY
no 30mm above rainfall

COVERED (MAY 19-21 21:00UTC) 3 DAYS
no 100mm above rainfall

COVERED (MAY 15-21 06:00UTC) 7 DAYS
234.37 mm BUTUAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.93 125.52