STORM KROVANH SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, 02C LIKELY TO ENTER WESTERN PACIFIC

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL STORM 12W KROVANH (STRONG)

STRUCTURE OF KROVANH

CLOSE UP NEAR THE CENTER OF KROVANH

TROPICAL STORM 12W/KROVANH (STRONG)

8-29-09

3P

LOCATION: 26.99N, 146.99E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 986.0MB
WINDSPEED: 50-65KT (93-120KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 984.0MB VMAX: 55KT/102KPH])
MOVEMENT: NNW 15KT/28KPH
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS (DVORAK: -69.31C)
NEXT 12HRS: 60KT/111KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (KROVANH) HAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED AND TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST PROVIDING POLEWARD VENTILA- TION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ITS PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXES HAS ALSO ACCOUNTED FOR THE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK TEMPERATURES ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGRESS CELSIUS. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED BUT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. THIS TRACK IS RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND RECURVES THE SYSTEM SOONER WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL JAPAN.

TROPICAL STORM KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A AND STEADILY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS AT TAU 36. BY TAU 48, IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MONGOLIA, DESCENDS INTO JAPAN AND CAUSES A BREAK/WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 72, TS 12W WILL COMMENCE ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION

AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS CYCLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND JGSM ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT PACKING WITH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE PACKING. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF CONSENSUS.


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

12W DEVELOPED OFF WESTERN PACIFIC, DEEPENING RAPIDLY

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W

STRUCTURE OF 12W

NEAR THE CENTER

8-28-09 1P

LOCATION: 22.60N, 148.02E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1000.0MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 998.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13.5KM HIGH 170KM RADIUS (DVORAK: -62.35C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO HAS TRACKEDNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AS BANDING HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE SYSTEM. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 26.1N 146.3E AND HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A TROUGH NEAR 22.7N 163.0E HAS CONTINUED TO ALLOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. SOUTH OF THE LLCC UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM.

CURRENTLY TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).AS A ID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN LIFTS NORTHWARD,THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER JAPAN CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VIGOROUS AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED, LEADING TO A SLOWER INTENISIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24. SST AND VWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW BASED ON POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION LEADING TO LIMITED GUIDANCE.

BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN BY TAU 120 AS THE STR CONTINUES BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT THE FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT TAU 120 ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAPAN.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

98W INVEST STILL UNDER UNFAVOURABLE CONDITION

IMAGERY OF 98W INVEST

8-26-09 1P

ALERT 98W INVEST (JMA: WEAK DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 20.4N, 136.3E (1450KM E EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON)
MSLP: 1005.3MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: N/A VMAX: N/A])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 6MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 14.5KM HIGH 85KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DISCUSSION:

RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD MID-LEVEL TURNING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS).HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS HINDERING OUTFLOW AND BRINGING COOLER, DRIER AIR.

AS OF AUG 26 2009 1:00P

COVERED (AUG 25-26 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
36.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
45.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
48.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
52.00 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57
55.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
66.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08

COVERED (AUG 23-26 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
131.00 mm CAGAYAN DE TAWI-TAWI 7.00 118.08

COVERED (AUG 19-26 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm and above rainfall

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON VAMCO WEAKENING

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON VAMCO

TYPHOON VAMCO STRUCTURE

EYE OF TYPHOON VAMCO


8-24-09 1P

LOCATION: 31.80N, 154.82E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 966MB
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 927.5MB VMAX:112.4KT/208KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.0KM HIGH 75KM RADIUS (DVORAK: +5.6C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 11W HAS STARTED A NORTHWARD TRACK. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE RAGGED EYE, WITH A SLIGHT ELONGATION IN THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS BEEN BROKEN BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11W. THE EASTERN OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SEPARATION OF 11W AND THE TUTT CELL INCREASES. OVERALL, VAMCO REMAINS BUFFERED FROM SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS COMPACT SIZE AND THE LACK OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 11W, BUT HAS YET TO PENETRATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE APPROACHING 28 C.

TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TY 11W RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 11W WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 WITH ET COMPLETION BY TAU 36. DECREASING SST VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 11W AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36, THE REMNANT LOW WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON VAMCO SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON VAMCO

TYPHOON VAMCO STRUCTURE (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

EYE OF TYPHOON VAMCO (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

8-22-09 3P

TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)

LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH

DISCUSSION:

8-22-09 3P

TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)

LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH


DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATION
IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED AND IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF EAST-WEST ELONG-
ATION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 5.0 FROM PGTW AND 5.5 FROM KNES, INDICATING
APPROXIMATELY 95 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY, HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWARD FLOW IN THE PAST 06 HOURS, SHIFTING A MAJORITY OF
THE OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF VAMCO.

THROUGH TAU 36, VAMCO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. IN THE SHORT TERM, VAMCO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCES
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PRIOR TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER VAMCO. EASTWARD OUTFLOW WILL HELP TO PREVENT QUICK
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS VAMCO TRACKS NORTHWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING VAMCO TO MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND CAUSE IT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TRACK SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.



COVERED (AUG 21-22 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
41.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
43.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
47.00 mm MALABANG/MINDANAO 7.62 124.07
49.00 mm PAGADIAN/MINDANAO 7.83 123.47

COVERED (AUG 19-22 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
103.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60

COVERED (AUG 15-22 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm and above rainfall

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON VAMCO INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 3 NEARING AT CATEGORY 4

TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 3)

LOCATION: 18.94N, 157.19E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 934.2MB
WINDSPEED: 105-135KT (194-250KPH [DVORAK: 110KT/204KPH])
MOVEMENT: N SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C 13.5KM HIGH 110KM RADIUS

NEXT 12HRS: 105-115KT/194-213KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
NEXT 24HRS: POSSIBLE 120KT/222KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AS THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY
11W HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL INTO THE
MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM
TY 11W INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS WELL
DEFINED AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
HELPED TO INCREASE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS REMAINED LOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE HELPED TO FUEL THE RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD

TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND GET
ABSORBED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD WESTWARD
INCREASING TRACK SPEED FOR TY 11W BEYOND TAU 48. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, CREATING A WEAKNESS
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING A TURN NORTHWARD. THE VWS AND SST WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN IN A DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HELPING TO ENHANCE AND SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF TY 11W THROUGH TAU 72

AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE STR, CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW, HELPING TO SLOW THE WEAKENING OF TY 11W THROUGH
TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE TO BREAK IN
THE STR ALLOWING TY 11W TO RECURVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. INCREASED VWS, DECREASED SST VALUES, AND LESS FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ARGREE-
MENT WITH THE FORECAST REASONING. -BY NOAA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

EL-NINO SLOWED DOWN

EL-NINO REPORT
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

SST ANOMALIES

SST IMAGERY

The El Niño pattern across the Pacific has not intensified during the past fortnight. Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this.

However, the Trade Winds are weakening over a broad area and this may promote renewed warming. In addition, leading climate models continue to predict further development of the El Niño, although not as emphatically as a month or two back. Therefore, the odds remain strongly in favour of 2009 being recognised as an El Niño year.

July and August have seen below average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, with particularly dry conditions through Queensland and northern NSW. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

In addition, conditions have recently been very warm for the time of year across Australia, with maximum temperatures consistently more than 4°C above normal over wide areas.

The most recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is near zero. The Bureau's POAMA model suggests the DMI should remain neutral over the coming months.

See IOD forecasts, DMI values.

SUMMARY

• The sea surface remains significantly warmer than the long-term average across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, exceeding El Niño thresholds in central to eastern areas.
• The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific cooled through July and August. However, a large volume of the sub-surface water still remains significantly warmer than the long-term average.
• The latest 30-day SOI value is −4; the monthly value for July was +2. These SOI values are near neutral and do not show an El Niño trend.
• While Trade Winds have been consistently weaker than normal across the western equatorial Pacific in recent months, they have fluctuated over the central to eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening observed recently.
• Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been slightly below average. Cloudiness near the date-line is usually greater than average during El Niño events.
• Six of the seven leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2009

SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, EL-NINO WATCH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

3 TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST THIS WEEK OVER WESTERN PACIFIC

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 330P[06:30UTC] AUG 8, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

UPPER DIVERGENCE

IR IMAGERY

850HPA CIRCULATION


10W WIND AND CONVECTION

VORTICES


09W MORAKOT WIND AND CONVECTION


08W GONI WIND AND CONVECTION


8-8-09 330P

MINIMAL STORM 08W/GONI (JOLINA)

LOCATION: 18.8N, 107.8E (200KM E OF NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 993.4MB
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT (65-83KPH [MSLP CHART: 38KT/70KPH])
MOVEMENT: SSW SLOWLY
EYE TEMP: 1C AT 13.5KM HIGH AT 380KM
RADIUS RAINRATE: 14-15MM/HR
NEXT 12HRS: 45-55KT GULF OF TONKIN


STRONG STORM 09W/MORAKOT (KIKO)

LOCATION: 24.8N, 120.7E (NW COAST TAIWAN)
MSLP: 975.7MB
WINDSPEED: 45-55KT (83-102KPH [MSLP CHART: 65KT/120KPH])
MOVEMENT: NNW 5KT/9KPH
EYE TEMP: 6C AT 12.5KM HIGH 50KM
RADIUS RAINRATE: 7-8MM/HR
NEXT 12HRS: 45-50KT/83-92KPH 25.4N, 120.0E (COAST OF SE CHINA)


STRONG DEPRESSION 10W

LOCATION: 24.6N, 139.1E (SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN)
MSLP: 1003.8MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH [MSLP CHART: 28KT/51KPH])
MOVEMENT: NNW 15KT/28KPH
RAINRATE: 14-15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: 2C AT 13KM HIGH AT 120KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 35-40KT/64-74KPH 25.9N, 138.3E

COVERED (AUG 6-7 21:00UTC) 1 DAY
39.00 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53
133.00 mm BASCO RADAR 20.43 121.95
133.00 mm BASCO/BATAN ISLAND 20.45 121.97
170.00 mm ITBAYAT ISLAND 20.80 121.85

COVERED (AUG 5-7 21:00UTC) 3 DAYS
114.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
138.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
143.00 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55
143.00 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38
157.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97
212.00 mm BASCO RADAR 20.43 121.95
212.00 mm BASCO/BATAN ISLAND 20.45 121.97
225.00 mm ITBAYAT ISLAND 20.80 121.85

COVERED (AUG 1-7 21:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
205.08 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97
214.84 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
239.26 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
249.02 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
253.91 mm ITBAYAT ISLAND 20.80 121.85
263.67 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63
278.32 mm BASCO RADAR 20.43 121.95
278.32 mm BASCO/BATAN ISLAND 20.45 121.97
322.27 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53
351.56 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

09W/MORAKOT/KIKO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 08W/GONI/JOLINA WILL BE BACK TO WATER

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 1P[04:30UTC] AUG 6, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

RAIN ANALYSIS OF MORAKOT


8-6-09
1P

CATEGORY 1 09W/MORAKOT (KIKO)
LOCATION: 23.1N, 128.0E (650KM E TAIWAN)
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [SLP CHART: 96KT/178KPH])
SLP: 946.4MB
MOVEMENT: WNW 9KT/17KPH
EYE TEMP: 6C AT 12.2KM
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH 23.5N, 125.5E (430KM E TAIWAN)

DISCUSSION BASED ON JTWC:

TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MORAKOT) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIONWRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052137Z37 GHZ SSMI IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE DEVELOPING WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERYINDICATES WELL ESTABLISHED RADIAL OUTFLOW IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. CONFIDENCE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, IS FAIR. THE VAST 34-KNOT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM VARIES FROM 120 NM ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT TO 200 NM ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS IS VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM RODN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 36 KNOTS, 213 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. WINDS ALSO VERIFY WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN DOTSTAR AIRCRAFTTY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONDITIONS FAVOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DUE TOFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DUAL OUFLOW CONDITIONS ENHANCEDBY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEARENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 36, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILLALSO MILDLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE SLIGHTLYNORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FORECAST TAKES TY 09W OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN BY TAU 36 AND INTO MAIN-LAND CHINA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO NOGAPS TRACKING NORTHWARD WHILE UKMO TRACKS TY 09W RAPIDLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. WBAR AND COAMPS ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND GFS TAKES TY 09W ACROSS SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INTO MAINLAND CHINA NEAR FUZHOU. THEREFORE, LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFDN, JGSM, AND ECMWF

SEVERE ALERT 08W/GONI (JOLINA)
LOCATION: 22.1N, 111.4E (LANDFALL AT SOUTHERN CHINA)
WINDSPEED: 20-30KT (37-56KPH [SLP CHART: 35KT/65KPH])
SLP: 995.9MB
MOVEMENT: WSW 5KT/9KPH
EYE TEMP: 2C AT 12KM
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT BACK TO WATER
DISCUSSION BASED ON JTWC:
NONE

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