TC DAVID CONTINUES TO LINGER

AS OF 2P DEC 29 2009

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DAVID

TC FORMATION ALERT STAGE (LEVEL 1/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 20kt GUST: 30kt (37-56kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1007MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 29KT (54KPH) MSLP: 1008.5MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: 0C (CENTER)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: 0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1

*No available data

CLICK NAME(S) FOR MOST UPDATED INFORMATIONS

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PARTIAL LUNAR ECLIPSE AND BLUE MOON EXCITES MORE THE NEW YEARS EVE IN THE PHILIPPINES

A combination of blue moon phenomena and a partial lunar eclipse makes more 2009 yearender exciting.

Blue moon a term used when moon becomes 100% illuminated happens twice in a month a rare occurrence as full moon happens once every month (approximately 29 and a half days apart). The last full moon happens last Dec 2 of this year and become full again on Dec 31. Together with this, a partial lunar eclipse which will be visible over Asia, Africa, Australia and Europe expected to happens, however, a tiny sliver of the Moon will be in the Earth's umbra shadow, but there should be a distinct darkening visible over the Moon's surface at greatest eclipse. Here in Manila, it will be observe on Jan 1, between 1.17am and 5.28am. It will start at 1.17am when the moon starts to pass the penumbra shadow of the Earth, however, the eclipse could only be observed when the moon starts passing the umbra (the darkest part of a shadow) at 2.53am until the maximum phase at 3.24am and will leave the Earth's umbra shadow at 4.53am. The partial lunar eclipse will end as moon exits the penumbra shadow at 5.28am before moonset.

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TC DAVID WEAKENING

AS OF 3P PHIL TIME

WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
ATLANTIC OCEAN: NONE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
NORTH AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: DAVID


TROPICAL CYCLONE DAVID (05S)

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 25KT (46KPH) MSLP: 1006MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 37.0KT (69KPH) MSLP: 998.6MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: +7.1C (CENTER)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -29.9C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1

NOTE: FINAL ADVISORY. RE-ISSUE IF RE-INTENSIFICATION TAKE PLACE

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

91W SHOWING WEAKNESS, TC DAVID SLOWLY INTENSIFYNG

AS OF 4P DEC 24 2009

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

WARNING STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 25KT (46KPH) MSLP: 1011.2MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


TROPICAL CYCLONE DAVID

INTENSE STORM STAGE (LEVEL 6/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 55kt GUST: 70kt (102-130kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 982MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 51KT (94KPH) MSLP: 996.9MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 69.8KT (129KPH) MSLP: 974.9MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -65.4C (CDO)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -71.3C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 60KT/112KPH/LEVEL 6-7

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE NOW OVER LAND, 91W STILL SURVIVING AS TC DAVID INTENSIFYING SLOWLY

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

ALERT STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 19KT (35KPH) MSLP: 1009.1MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1


TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (FINAL ADVISORY)

CATEGORY 1 STAGE (LEVEL 7/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 75kt GUST: 90kt (139-167kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 967MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 63KT (117KPH) MSLP: 978.9MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (LANDFALL)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 55KT/102KPH/LEVEL 6


TROPICAL CYCLONE DAVID (05S)

STRONG STORM STAGE (LEVEL 5/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 45kt GUST: 55kt (83-102kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 989MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 41KT (76KPH) MSLP: 1000.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 55KT (102KPH) MSLP: 985.0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -79.2C (CDO)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -77.9C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 55KT/102KPH/LEVEL 6

*NO AVAILABLE DATA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, 91W INVEST SHOWING INTENSIFICATION, 05S RE-INTENSIFY

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

ALERT STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 24KT (45KPH) MSLP: 1008.1MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1



TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE

CATEGORY 3 STAGE (LEVEL 10/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 100kt GUST: 125kt (185-232kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 948MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 103KT (191KPH) MSLP: 943.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 140KT (259KPH) MSLP: 899.5MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -12.9C (EYE)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -81.1C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 130KT/241KPH/LEVEL 12

NOTE:
TC LAURENCE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND LIKELY TO REACH CATEGORY 4 BEFORE LANDFALL.


TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S

MINIMAL STORM STAGE (LEVEL 4/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 35kt GUST: 45kt (65-83kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 996MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 38KT (70KPH) MSLP: 1009.3MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 43KT (80KPH) MSLP: 992.2MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -18.5C (CENTER)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -33.2C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 45KT/83KPH/LEVEL 5

*NO AVAILABLE DATA
CLICK NAMES TO SEE UPDATED LIVE IMAGERY(S)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE RE-INTENSIFY, 91W INVEST SLOWLY ORGANIZING, TC 05S STRUGGLE

DEC 19 2009 TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN: 91W
SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN: LAURENCE
ATLANTIC OCEAN: NONE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
NORTH AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: 05S



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

ALERT STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 24KT (45KPH) MSLP: 1008.1MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1


TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE

MINIMAL STORM STAGE (LEVEL 4/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 35kt GUST: 45kt (65-83kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 996MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 36KT (67KPH) MSLP: 1005.4MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 49KT (91KPH) MSLP: 990.5MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -80.9C (CDO)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -66.1C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 50KT/93KPH/LEVEL 5-6


TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINAL UPDATE)

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 22KT (41KPH) MSLP: 1010.6MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2


*NO AVAILABLE DATA
NOTE: TC LAURENCE likely to re-intensify more to a category 1 as it moves back to warmer water.


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

PHILIPPINES SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULE

2010-2100 PHILIPPINES SOLAR ECLIPSE SCHEDULE

CLICK TO SEE IN GOOGLE MAP (WITH MAGNITUDE OF ECLIPSE)

JAN 15 2010 PARTIAL
MAY 20 2012 PARTIAL
MAY 10 2013 PARTIAL
MARCH 9 2016 PARTIAL
DEC 26 2019 TOTAL (BAYAN NG SARANGANI, SOUTHERN MINDANAO)
JUNE 21 2020 PARTIAL
APRIL 20 2023 PARTIAL
JUL 22 2028 PARTIAL
JUN 01 2030 PARTIAL
MAY 21 2031 PARTIAL
NOV 3 2032 PARTIAL
SEPT 2 2035 PARTIAL
JULY 13 2037 PARTIAL
DEC 26 2038 PARTIAL
OCT 25 2041 PARTIAL
SEPT 20 2042 TOTAL (PALAWAN, PANAY, SOUTHERN MINDORO, CAMARINES PROV, CATANDUANES, MASBATE,)
OCT 14 2042 PARTIAL
FEB 5 2046 PARTIAL
JAN 26 2047 PARTIAL
NOV 25 2049 PARTIAL
SEPT 22 2052 PARTIAL
MAR 20 2053 PARTIAL
JULY 1 2057 PARTIAL
SEPT 3 2062 PARTIAL
FEB 28 2063 ANNULAR (MINDANAO)
AUG 24 2063 PARTIAL
FEB 17 2064 PARTIAL
MAY 31 2068 PARTAL (MINDANAO ONLY)
APRIL 11 2070 TOTAL (ITBAYAT, BATANES GROUP)
FEB 7 2073 PARTIAL (NORTHERN LUZON ONLY)
JAN 27 2074 PARTIAL
JULY 24 2074 ANNULAR (CAVITE, BATANGAS, SOUTHERN QUEZON, CAMARINES PROV., CATANDUANES)
JULY 13 2075 PARTIAL (NORTHERN LUZON ONLY)
MAY 22 2077 PARTIAL (MINDANAO ONLY)
SEPT 3 2081 PARTIAL
AUG 24 2082 TOTAL (TAWI-TAWI)
JUNE 22 2085 PARTIAL
DEC 6 2086 PARTIAL (LUZON ONLY)
OCT 4 2089 PARTIAL
NOV 27 2095 PARTIAL
MAY 22 2096 TOTAL (MINDANAO)
NOV 15 2096 ANNULAR (TAWI-TAWI)

2100-2200 SCHEDULE OF PHILIPPINES SOLAR ECLIPSE (TOTAL/ANNULAR)

SEPT 26 2136 TOTAL (ZAMBALES, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, POLILIO, NORTHERN QUEZON)
AUG 5 2157 ANNULAR (NORTHERN LUZON)
MAY 25 2161 ANNULAR- GREATEST ECLIPSE 1M12S DURATION (PANGASINAN, AURORA, NUEVA VISCAYA)
MAR 23 2164 HYBRID (MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN QUEZON, ALBAY)
APR 23 2172 ANNULAR (BATANES GRP)
OCT 29 2190 HYBRID (NORTHERN LUZON)

SOURCE: NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA)

NOTE:
There are four types of solar eclipses:

• A total eclipse occurs when the Sun is completely obscured by the Moon. The intensely bright disk of the Sun is replaced by the dark silhouette of the Moon, and the much fainter corona is visible. During any one eclipse, totality is visible only from at most a narrow track on the surface of the Earth.
• An annular eclipse occurs when the Sun and Moon are exactly in line, but the apparent size of the Moon is smaller than that of the Sun. Hence the Sun appears as a very bright ring, or annulus, surrounding the outline of the Moon.
• A hybrid eclipse (also called annular/total eclipse) transitions between a total and annular eclipse. At some points on the surface of the Earth it is visible as a total eclipse, whereas at others it is annular. Hybrid eclipses are comparatively rare.
• A partial eclipse occurs when the Sun and Moon are not exactly in line and the Moon only partially obscures the Sun. This phenomenon can usually be seen from a large part of the Earth outside of the track of an annular or total eclipse. However, some eclipses can only be seen as a partial eclipse, because the umbra never intersects the Earth's surface, passing above the Earth's polar regions.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE FINAL ADVISORY; 91W AND 92W INVEST OVER PACIFIC; 05S STILL SURVIVING

AS OF 130P PHIL TIME DEC 18 2009

WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN: 91W; 92W
SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN: LAURENCE
ATLANTIC OCEAN: NONE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
NORTH AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: 05S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 15KT (28KPH) MSLP: 1009.0MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W INVEST

WARNING STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
*SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+5MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


**TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (FINAL ADVISORY)

MINIMAL STORM STAGE (LEVEL 4/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 35kt GUST: 45kt (65-83kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 996MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 32KT (59KPH) MSLP: 1004.7MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (LANDFALL)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2


TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 23KT (43KPH) MSLP: 1012.5MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2


*NO AVAILABLE DATA
**OVER LAND


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE WEAKENS; 91W INVEST DEVELOPES; 05S STRUGGLE

LIST OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE(S)

WESTERN PACIFIC: 91W
SOUTHERN PACIFIC: LAURENCE
ATLANTIC: NONE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC: NONE
NORTH AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: 05S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

WARNING STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 15KT (28KPH) MSLP: 1008.4MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE

INTENSE STORM STAGE (LEVEL 6/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 55kt GUST: 70kt (102-130kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 982MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 46KT (85KPH) MSLP: 993.7MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (LANDFALL)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH/LEVEL 5-4


TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 29KT (54KPH) MSLP: 1010.4MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1

*NO AVAILABLE DATA

FOR LIVE UPDATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER INFORMATION JUST CLICK THE NAMES

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

EL NINO MATURING

EL NINO ADVISORY
DEC 10 2009

Mature El Niño conditions continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific remain at levels not seen since the El Niño events of 2002-03 and 1997-98, with values more than 2°C above normal in places along the equator. Leading climate models continue to suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds into the new year, though most indicate the El Niño will decline after the southern hemisphere summer.# The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains significantly warmer than the long-term average in central and eastern areas.

# The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific remains warmer than the long-term average. The eastern Pacific has cooled slightly in the last two weeks.
# The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −9; the monthly value for November was −7. The SOI increased in value in the second half of November, but is currently falling once again.
# Trade winds are close to normal across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. A strong westerly wind burst has weakened the Trades significantly in the western Pacific.
# Cloudiness near the date-line has increased over the past fortnight.
# Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict that El Niño conditions will persist through the southern hemisphere summer, but decline thereafter

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the tropical Pacific Ocean remained above normal for the month of November. The SST anomaly map for November is available here; the map shows warm anomalies in excess of +1°C covering most of the tropical Pacific east of 160°E, with anomalies exceeding +2°C in parts of the central Pacific. The map also shows near-normal SSTs covering most of the western Pacific and northern waters around Australia. The monthly NINO indices for November were +1.3°C, +1.7°C and +1.5°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. Each of the NINO regions has warmed when compared with October values; NINO3 by approximately 0.4°C, NINO3.4 by 0.6°C and NINO4 by 0.2°C.

In terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +1.5°C, +1.7°C and +1.3°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with two weeks ago NINO3 and NINO3.4 have risen slightly, while NINO4 has recorded a change of −0.3°C. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies in excess of +1°C covering most of the tropical Pacific east of the dateline. When compared with anomalies observed two weeks ago, there is little change in terms of sea surface temperatures. An animation of recent SST changes is available.

The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the last two weeks. However, the sub-surface still remains significantly warmer than the long-term mean and shows a clear El Niño pattern. A four-month sequence of Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly is available here. The sequence shows cooling of the sub-surface through August and September followed by a relatively rapid warming through October and November, particuarly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A recent map for the 5 days ending 6 December shows a large volume of sub-surface water more than 2°C warmer than normal for this time of the year extending across much of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies in excess of 5°C are evident between 140°W and 100°W on a weekly scale. When compared with two weeks ago, the western and central sub-surface has cooled slightly. This is related to the return to normal Trade wind conditions. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available.

An archive of past SST and sub-surface temperature charts is available.

Trade winds remain at relatively normal conditions across most of the tropical Pacific. A westerly wind burst has emerged in the western equatorial Pacific warming the underlying ocean. The latest weekly wind anomalies are shown in the TAO/TRITON map (small image above) for the five days ending 6 December.

The SOI increased through November, but has been decreasing again since the start of December. This follows the rapid fall in the value of the SOI during October. The latest (7 December) approximate 30-day SOI value is −9; the monthly value for November was −7, after October was −15. The SOI remains at values typical of an El Niño event SOI graph, SOI table).

Cloudiness near the date-line over the equatorial Pacific is another important indicator of ENSO conditions. Cloudiness near the dateline has been mostly above average since July, consistent with a developing El Niño. Negative OLR anomalies have increased during the last two weeks while cloudiness over Indonesia and much of northern Australia has remained below average during this period.

Most international computer models are predicting that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern hemisphere summer. Five of six international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology forecast SSTs to remain above threshold levels into early 2010. A majority of computer models are predicting that Pacific Ocean SSTs will start to cool by March next year, which is the typical timing for the decay of El Niño events. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a continuation of warming with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into 2010, peaking over the summer months


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TROPICAL CYCLONE NIDA WEAKENS; 97W LIKELY TO ABSORB NIDA'S REMNANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
DEC 3 2009

NIDA WIND ANALYSIS

97W WIND ANALYSIS

97W THERMAL IR IMAGERY

NIDA THERMAL IMAGERY

WESTERN PACIFIC IR IMAGERY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (VINTA/26W)

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 34KT (63KPH) MSLP: 1000.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 26KT(48KPH) MSLP: 1003.2B
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: +10.9C (SHEAR)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: +4.4C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/19KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AT 0600Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEARLY ONE DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF INCREASINGLY SHEARED CONVECTION. BY 1200Z CONVECTION HAD BEGUN TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE EXPOSED LLCC AS THE CONVECTIVE MASS ENLARGED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CONVECTION HAS LEFT THE LLCC MOSTLY OBSCURED AND INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AS WELL. THIS WEAKENING SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MAY BE MORE A CONSEQUENCE OF INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION RATHER THAN THE ACTUAL STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS, A BLEND OF A 3.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) FROM PGTW AND A 3.0 FROM RJTD. ANALYSIS OF AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE WARM CORE HAS CONTRACTED WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC, AND IT HAS DROPPED SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET INTO THE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE

FORECAST REASONING.

A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, BUT RATHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER OPEN WATER DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). VWS HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC, HAD LEFT THE LLCC FULLY EXPOSED 6 TO 8 HOURS AGO, AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AS THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC, THE LLCC WILL TEND TO TRACK MORE WEST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF (NORTH)EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE CURRENT TRACK SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TREND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE PREVIOUS 6-HOUR MOTION.

B. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS VWS ELEVATES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. AT THIS TIME RECURVATURE STILL SEEMS LESS LIKELY BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED FROM ITS CONVECTION AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION REBUILDS AND SUSTAINS NEAR THE CENTER (THOUGH UNLIKELY DUE TO VWS), THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BECOME MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL TRACK. AS FORECASTED THE STORM WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (PRE-28W)

SEVERE ALERT (6-12HRS FORMATION) STAGE

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 20kt GUST: 25kt (37-46kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1007MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 27KT (50KPH) MSLP: 1004.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT(0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 142.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030012Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 030007Z ASCAT PASS DID NOT COVER THE ENTIRE LLCC, HOWEVER IT HAD COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF, AND IT INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 021900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS

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