95W INVEST WILL DEVELOP, EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MMLA BY SAT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 4P OCTOBER 25, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) INFORMATION AND NEW FORECAST FOR NEW EXPECTED TC

FORECAST TRACK OF POSSIBLE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE (95W INVEST)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY

VORTICITY

RAINFALL ANALYSIS 95W INVEST

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

INTENSE STORM
LOCATION: 25.61N, 129.04E (105KM SE RYUKU IS)
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: NE 11KT/20KPH
RAINRATE: +20MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -20.18C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: MODERATE (-33.89C)
VORTICES: 200
NEXT 12HRS: 50-55KT/93-102KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 985.82MB VMAX: 53KT/98KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 991.8MB VMAX: 43KT/80KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 990.8MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 995.4MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 984.9MB VMAX: 58KT/107KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 975MB VMAX: 72KT/133KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 977MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/111KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: N/AKPH


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT STAGE
LOCATION: 11.4N, 153.8E (MICRONESIA ISLAND [1880KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (0C)
VORTICES: 0
NEXT 12HRS: 20-25KT/37-46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1006.5MB VMAX: 31KT/57KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1006.5MB VMAX: 31KT/57KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE:

95w invest which is expected to develop within this week is heading towards Luzon (near Metro manila) by this week based on ECMWF model

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