NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W DEVELOPING, MAY BECOME A BIG THREAT TO PHILIPPINES ANEW NEXT WEEK

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 14, 2009)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (22W) FORECAST

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT
LOCATION: 9.6N, 152.9E (OPEN NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1007MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (28-37KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: +30-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-INTENSE (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 25-30KT/37-46KPH

DVORAKMSLP : 1007.1MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1007.1MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE: THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS BASED ON ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS IN WILL ENTER PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN OCT 19-20 AS CATEGORY 1-2 SYSTEM AS IT HEADED MORE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 3-4 TYPHOON BY OCT 21-22 AND EXPECTED TO HIT LUZON ISLAND (AURORA-ISABELA OR ISABELA-CAGAYAN) BETWEEN OCT 22-23 AS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4. THIS WILL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGHT AND EXTENT OF THE SAID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING NOW BOTH OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND SIBERIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME A DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR 94W.


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