TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL) NEARS CATEGORY 1 STAGE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 16, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

VORTICES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACT
RAIN ANALYSIS
CLOSEUP IMAGES

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

AS OF 1P

INTENSE STAGE

LOCATION: 13.35N, 136.40E (1190KM E BICOL REGION[140KM E PAR])
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-73.43C)
NEXT 12HRS: 70-75KT/130-139KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 994.6MB VMAX: 43KT/79KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.5MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 991.2MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/111KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 75-90KPH

NOTE:

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN TEMPORARILY ALLOWS LUPIT (RAMIL) TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVES MORE NW WARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24HRS (OCTOBER 17) HOWEVER, A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXTEND TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THUS BECOME A PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR LUPIT (RAMIL) CAUSING IT TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACT TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 AT MAXIMUM OF 125-130KT (232-241KPH) WINDS PRIOR ITS LANDFALL BY OCTOBER 22-23 DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, HIGH SST, GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THAT TIME AIDED BY A TUTT TO THE NE OF LUPIT (RAMIL). IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PHIL. AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN 8-9P TODAY.

THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL NUMERICAL MODELS SEEN ON MAIN WEB PAGE. (PLEASE SEE LUPIT OTHER CLICK LINK).

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK