TYPHOON PARMA WEAKENS TO CATEGORY 2, SUPER TYPHOON MELOR EXPECTS TO CROSS NORTH OF SAIPAN LATE AFTERNOON

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 3P OCTOBER 03, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) AND SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

WIND

RAINFALL

CLOSE UP NEAR THE EYE

CONVECTION (ENHANCED IR)




TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W
CATEGORY 2
LOCATION: 17.73N, 122.07E (LANDFALL, 50KM ENE OF CAGAYAN)
MSLP: 956MB
WINDSPEED: 90-115KT (167-213KPH)
MOVEMENT: NW 11KT/20KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +4C AT 12KM HIGH 30KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -81.38C (CENTER)
CONVECTION: INTENSE (-78.14C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 975.5MB VMAX: 68KT/126KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 981.2MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 981.2MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 981.2MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 958.3MB VMAX: 90KT/167KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 175-210KPH





SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 16.27N, 146.45E (65KM ENE OF SAIPAN, GUAM [1145KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 937MB
WINDSPEED: 115-145KT (213-269KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C AT 12.5KM HIGH 40KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -51.33C (EYE)
CONVECTION: INTENSE (-78.24C)
NEXT 12HRS: 120-130KT/222-241KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 933.1MB VMAX: 114KT/212KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 951.2MB VMAX: 95KT/207KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 948.6MB VMAX: 97KT/217KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 956.5MB VMAX: 90KT/185KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 926.2MB VMAX: 120KT/222KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH


NOTE:

FIRST LANDFALL AT AROUND 12-1P AT 17.54N, 122.0 OR EAST COAST OF CAGAYAN (ALONG CORDILLERA MOUNTAINS)

SECOND LANDFALL AT AROUND 2:30-3:30P AT 17.73N, 122.07 STILL EAST COAST OF CAGAYAN (ALONG CORDILLERA MOUNTAINS).

THE SAID MOUNTAIN RANGE AFFECTS THE MOVEMENT OF TYPHOON PARMA AS IT JUMPING BACK TO WATER .

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