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ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

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LOW 99W

LOW 90W

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME 3 HOURS UPDATED SURFACE WIND AND 3HRS RAIN. CLICK EARTH TO CHANGE VIEW. CLICK MAP TO KNOW VALUE/DATA
CREDIT: EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

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DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

PHILIPPINE WEATHER FORECAST

PHILIPPINE WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

METRO MANILA 
RAINFALL FORECAST (mm)   TEMPERATURE FORECAST (°C)   WINDSPEED FORECAST (km/hr)   MSLP FORECAST (mb)
Date [TIME] Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum   Minimum Mean Maximum
06.12.2016 00 0 0 0   24 24.2 24.3   7.56 8.28 8.64   1011.8 1012.5 1013.2
06.12.2016 06 0 0 0.1   26.1 26.4 26.5   13.32 14.04 14.76   1012.1 1012.8 1013.6
06.12.2016 12 0 0 0   30.5 31 31.6   17.64 18.72 19.8   1009.4 1010 1011
06.12.2016 18 0 0 0.1   25 25.3 25.6   11.16 11.88 12.96   1011.1 1011.7 1012.3
07.12.2016 00 0 0.1 1.2   24.2 24.5 24.7   7.92 9.36 10.44   1010.2 1010.9 1011.6
07.12.2016 06 0 0.1 0.3   25.7 26.4 26.6   11.52 13.32 14.76   1011.1 1011.8 1012.6
07.12.2016 12 0 0.1 0.7   29.7 30.6 31.4   14.4 16.56 18   1008 1008.5 1009
07.12.2016 18 0 0.1 0.3   25 25.4 25.8   7.2 9 10.08   1009.8 1010.3 1010.8
08.12.2016 00 0 0.2 1.2   23.6 24 24.4   6.12 6.84 7.92   1007.9 1008.6 1009.3
08.12.2016 06 0.1 0.7 1.8   24.9 26.2 26.8   7.92 9.36 10.44   1009.3 1010 1010.6
08.12.2016 12 0 0.9 3   28.2 30.8 32.2   8.28 10.8 13.32   1006.5 1007 1007.7
08.12.2016 18 0 0 0.3   24.6 25.2 25.6   6.84 8.28 9.36   1009 1009.6 1010.4
09.12.2016 00 0 0 0.3   23.2 23.6 24   4.68 5.76 6.48   1007.4 1008.3 1008.8
09.12.2016 06 0.2 0.7 1.3   25.6 26.1 26.4   5.4 6.84 8.28   1009.5 1010.3 1011.2
09.12.2016 12 0.2 1.8 4.3   30.6 31.9 33.8   3.6 7.2 10.08   1005.8 1006.8 1007.6
09.12.2016 18 0 0.3 2.1   24.3 24.9 25.6   5.04 7.2 9.36   1009.1 1009.8 1010.9
10.12.2016 00 0 0.1 0.5   23 23.4 23.6   5.04 6.12 7.2   1007.9 1009.3 1010.3
10.12.2016 06 0 0.4 1.6   25.5 25.8 26.3   5.04 7.92 10.08   1010.3 1011 1011.9
10.12.2016 12 0 0.8 3   29.3 31.3 32.7   6.12 10.08 13.32   1006.6 1007.6 1008.9
10.12.2016 18 0 0 0.3   24 25 25.6   6.12 7.56 9.36   1009.3 1010.1 1011
11.12.2016 00 0 0 0   22.4 23 23.5   4.32 5.4 7.56   1008.1 1008.8 1009.7
AVERAGE 0.0238 0.3000 1.0667   25.69 26.43 27.00   7.87 9.55 11.06   1009.06 1009.80 1010.59
LIGHT/DRIZZLE                        
MODERATE                        
HEAVY                        
VERY HEAVY                        
INTENSE                        
TORRENTIAL                        

DECEMBER 6, 2016 12AM (GOOD FOR 12HRS)

SYNOPSIS: STATIONARY FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON; BROAD NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION

850mb VORTICITY(×10-6/s): NO DATA AVAILABLE.

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR(in kt): NO DATA AVAILABLE (NO DATA AVAILABLE for the past 24hrs).

LOW LEVEL INFLOW (CONVERGENCE) VS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (DIVERGENCE): NO DATA AVAILABLE

TROPICAL MOISTURE % per -40°C: 50-90 over Visayas and Mindanao, moist-very moist

AVERAGE WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION (SURFACE): 15-20kt (NE) Luzon, 5-10kt (NE) over Visayas and 5-10kt (NE-N) over Mindanao

AVERAGE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SURFACE IN MB): 1009mb-1017mb

AVERAGE WEEKLY SST INDEX (EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC): -0.252°C (FALLING, -0.16°C)

MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION AMPLITUDE: +0.399 0.456 [(NON MJO) PHASE 1 WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND AFRICA going DOWN by 0.057]

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

1. Stationary front approaches Extreme Northern Luzon bringing some possible shower over Northern Luzon.
2. Equatorial trough meanwhile affects Visayas and Mindanao bringing mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshower and/or thunderstorms over the area
3. Overall, most of the country likely to have some shower activity becoming more pronounced over Visayas and Mindanao.
4. Winds will be moderate to strong over Extreme Northern Luzon becoming more light to moderate to the rest of the country.
5. Sea waters over Extreme northern luzon will be dangerous to small type of seacraft due to possible gale force wind over the area.

FORECAST MODELS

As of 1200Z, for the next 5 days, tropical disturbance code as 90W Invest developed over the said broad equatorial trough over Western Pacific. For the past 3 runs, Models remains consistent for possible development in the next 3-5days. Due to this, The author now raised a warning status for 90W.

BELOW ARE PHILIPPINE DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION, 10 DAY FORECAST AND SELECTED PHILIPPINE CITIES 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST



METRO MANILA STATION
BAGUIO STATION
APARRI STATION
SUBIC
TAGAYTAY
BALER STATION
VIRAC STATION
CEBU STATION
HINATUAN STATION
SOUTH COTABATO





10MIN CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (FOR THUNDERSTORM CLOUD)

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY



10 DAYS RAINFALL FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

PHILIPPINE CHART AND REALTIME WIND


SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WIND

10 DAYS WIND FORECAST


12HRS

24HRS

36HRS

48HRS

60HRS

72HRS

84HRS

96HRS

108HRS

120HRS

132HRS

144HRS

156HRS

168HRS

180HRS

192HRS

204HRS

216HRS

228HRS

240HRS

RELATIVE VORTICITY (UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS)

Vorticity is a measure of curvature in atmospheric flow. A positive value indicates counter clockwise motion in the northern hemisphere and lockwise motion in the southern hemisphere. A positive vorticity environment is conducive to storm development.


WESTERN PACIFIC ANIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER




DISCLAIMER: These are based on forecast models and realtime charts and imageries and not as an official update. Please don't use this as an official forecast unless official agencies issued warnings or updates. All informations and updates are supported by different data gathered from different agencies which well-analyzed by the author. All imageries are real time and only forecast is subject to changes by author.

CREDITS: weather-forecast.com, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA, WEATHER ONLINE, PAGASA-DOST, CNN WEATHER, CIMSS

Layout and Discussions Prepared by: Jermaine Christopher Gaines (© 2016 All rights reserved)

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AYALA ALABANG

TWO FRAME RAINRATE IMAGERY


DMSP SSM/IS RAINRATE

AMSU RAINRATE

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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