TYPHOON LUPIT LIKELY TO SPARE CAGAYAN, BATANES-TAIWAN AREA MOSTLY TO BE HIT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 21, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

OCTOBER 23, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 24, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 25, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 26, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 27, 2009 12:00UTC

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 19.99N, 126.76E (475KM ESE BASCO, BATANES)

MSLP: 963MB

WINDSPEED: 80-100KT (148-185KPH)

MOVEMENT: WSW 9KT/17KPH

RAINRATE: +30MM/HR

CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)

DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY (-66.95C)

VORTICES: 250

NEXT 12HRS: 80-90KT/148-167KPH

DVORAK

MSLP : 967.08MB VMAX: 78KT/144KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:

(JTWC): MSLP : 982.1MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH

(RSMC): MSLP : 982.0MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH

(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.8MB VMAX: 63KT/117KPH

(RAMMB-CIRA): 954.6MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH

(AMSU): MSLP: 951MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH

(SATCON): MSLP: 954MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH

(MIMIC): VMAX: 80KT/148KPH

(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

NOTE: Based on new forecast by ECMWF shows that lupit is most likely to spare Cagayan region by direct hit rather a possible weakness of high over north of it will eventually shift the system more westward towards Batanes-Taiwan area. However, stormy weather still expected over those areas over northern luzon by friday-saturday. It is more likely to weakens further as drier air entraping to its circulation.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK