LUPIT LIKELY TO SPARE NORTHERN LUZON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 930P OCTOBER 21, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 19.49N, 125.52E (320KM ESE BASCO, BATANES)
MSLP: 963MB
WINDSPEED: 80-100KT (148-185KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW 7KT/13KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -19.06C (EYE)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-66.55C)
VORTICES: 250
NEXT 12HRS: 80-90KT/148-167KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 967.2MB VMAX: 79KT/146KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.2MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 982.3MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 983.8MB VMAX: 57KT/117KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 963.0MB VMAX: 86KT/170KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 944MB VMAX: 112KT/189KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 948MB VMAX: 99KT/170KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 80KT/148KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

NOTE: Lupit expected to spare Cagayan and the rest of northern Luzon as low pressure trough expected to weakens the high pressure ridge over North and thus again expected to slow down lupit before moving pole ward. This is based on latest models including ECMWF which shows a more poleward movement beginning saturday and sunday.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK