93W REMAIN WEAK AND DISORGANIZED

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(AS OF 3P[05:30UTC] APRIL 27, 2009)

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WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH 93W

7.5-8.0N, 133-136E

19KTS SLP 1010MB

WNW AT 3KTS

RAINRATE:20-21mm/hr

SYNOPSIS: WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS, WEAK MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO.

Tropical disturbance 93W continues to disorganize despite of good environment such as warm SST, OHC and low-moderate VWS however, upper divergence remain weak at 10kts. lack of poleward outflow and equatorial outflow (which is influenced by TC21 over South Pacific) cause its poor development as of the moment. However, latest vortices and wind analysis shows circulation of 93W remain intact despite of lack of consolidation over convective clouds near LLCC which is limited to tight Level 4. Still, 93W remain to be existing and watchful if reorganization will take place within 24hrs.

Meantime, SW windflow remain a primary weather system together with frontal system across Luzon and Western Visayas as Monsoon trough still weak as of the moment. Light-heavy scattered rain/TS expected over most of Luzon this late afternoon and evening.

Winds still strong at 63kph over Northern Luzon from NE becoming moderate at 28kph from SW to changeable elsewhere.

AREAS MOSTLY PRECIPITATED BASED ON 3BR2RT TRMM IN THE PHILIPPINES

1 DAY
39.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 14.63 121.02

45.00 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63

49.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

49.00 mm TUGUEGARAO/LUZON IL 17.62 121.73

50.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60

51.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90

55.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65

65.00 mm CASIGURAN/LUZON ISL 16.28 122.12

75.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
3 DAYS
100.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90

102.00 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63

115.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

131.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57

131.00 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57

137.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35

144.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
7 DAYS
200.20 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55

200.20 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38

200.20 mm DAGUPAN/LUZON ISL 16.05 120.33

200.20 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

214.84 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35

219.73 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57

234.37 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38

239.26 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90

244.14 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

268.55 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60