96W INTENSIFIED AND NAMED AS CRISING, 93/95W INTENSIFYING ALSO

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(AS OF 3P[06:30UTC] APRIL 30, 2009)

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MINIMAL DEPRESSION 96W/CRISING
POSITION: 13.4N, 117.3E
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT/56-74KPH
SLP: 1007.8MB
MOVEMENT: SE SLOWLY
POTENTIAL: MINIMAL STORM WITHIN 12HRS

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEVERE ALERT 93W/95W
POSITION: 13.9N,137.7E
WINDSPEED:20-30KT/37-56KPH
SLP:1008.1MB
MOVEMENT:NNW AT 7KT/13KPH
POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: GOOD

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALERT 94W
POSITION: 13.8N, 123.0E
WINDSPEED: 15KT/28KPH
SLP: 1010MB
MOVEMENT: WEST AT 5KT/9KPH
POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: FAIR

RAINRATE:18-19mm/hr

SYNOPSIS: MINIMAL DEPRESSION CRISING /96W AND ALERT 94W OVER LUZON; WEAK MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO.

96W intensified and now categorized as minimal depression named locally as Crising as remain almost stationary as it was steered Southeastward by high pressure ridging over over Japan (1026mb east and west). Crising expected to intensify into minimal storm overnight as both upper divergence and equatorial outflow remains good despite of suppressed pole ward outflow due to high pressure ridge. By 24hrs maximium windspeed might reach to 45kt/74kph and expected to slowly moves more Eastward. Meanwhile 94W intensified a bit as it was now over land based on vorticity wind. It is moving westward as it is expected to merge over Crising within 24hrs. Though at alert status due to improved LLCC and Convection potential for 24 hrs remain fair due to interaction over land.

93/95W in the meantime moves more poleward as it interact with frontal system over NE. 93/95W expected to developed as minimal depression due to excellent poleward outflow and low windshear and fair upper divergence and also warm SST. It is expected to accelerate more NE within 12-24hrs as the said frontal system pushes by the said ridge to the east.

AREAS MOSTLY PRECIPITATED BASED ON 3BR2RT TRMM IN THE PHILIPPINES

1 DAY
38.00 mm MANILA/LUZON ISLAND 14.58 120.98
38.00 mm NINOY AQUINO INTL 14.52 121.00
38.00 mm SANGLEY POINT AB 14.50 120.92
39.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65
41.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
48.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
60.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
62.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
66.00 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
79.00 mm CATARMAN/SAMAR ISL 12.48 124.63
79.00 mm MARINDUQUE ISLAND 13.37 121.83
86.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
93.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
105.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
111.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
115.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
124.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
124.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
126.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
127.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
240.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
255.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23

3 DAYS
101.00 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
103.00 mm MARINDUQUE ISLAND 13.37 121.83
104.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
106.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
111.00 mm COTABATO/MINDANAO 7.17 124.22
115.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65
118.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
126.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
131.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
136.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
136.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
145.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
183.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
196.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
255.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
255.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23

7 DAYS

209.96 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
209.96 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
224.61 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
224.61 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
229.49 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
253.91 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
268.55 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
371.09 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23