WELCOME TO TYPHOON AND WEATHER IMAGERY. THIS BLOG CONTAINS REAL TIME WEATHER, TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES AND IMAGERY, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. CONTENTS OF DROP DOWN MENU CAN BE FOUND AFTER PHILIPPINE IMAGERY BELOW (SCROLL DOWNWARD). THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THIS SITE. YOU ARE FREE TO MAKE ANY COMMENT(S) OR FEEDBACK(S) ABOUT THIS BLOG.

ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

CLICK IMAGERIES TO REDIRECT ON COMPLETE IMAGERIES AND INFORMATIONS (Imageries will be seen after Philippines imagery below)

SAOLA

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME HOURLY SURFACE WIND AND RAINRATE WITH VALUE

CREDIT: VENTUSKY

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DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA REMAINED STATIONARY, NEW DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO DEVELOP


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NOV 29 2009

WESTERN PACIFIC WIND


SUPER TYPHOON NIDA WIND


SUPER TYPHOON NIDA THERMAL IR IMAGERY


SUPER TYPHOON NIDA RAIN ANALYSIS


WESTERN PACIFIC PRESSURE AND STEERING ENVIRONMENT


WESTERN PACIFIC IR IMAGERY


SUPER TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

SUPER TYPHOON (CATEGORY 4) STAGE

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 125kt GUST: 150kt (232-278kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 929MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 127KT (235KPH) MSLP: 915.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 127.0KT(235KPH) MSLP: 915.5MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -17.9C (LARGE EYE)

CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -65.4C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 120KT/222KPH


DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282141Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT SLIGHT EROSION OF CORE CONVECTION OVER THE EAST QUADRANT WITH AN EXPANDING, ROUND 50NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE MOST RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POLEWARD-ORIENTED, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF 22N; TY 26W IS LOCATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN, DOMINANT STR AND THE WESTERN STR, WHICH EXTENDS FROM HAINAN EASTWARD TO ABOUT 130E. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS HIGH ZONAL ACROSS ASIA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW (IN IMAGERY AS WELL). THE 28/21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ASIA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 150E; THIS HIGH HAS BUILT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF TY 26W. THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH THE RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM

FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS BULLETIN REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM A RE-CURVE SCENARIO TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
B. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS (UKMO, ECMWF, TC-LAPS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFS AND WBAR) NOW SUPPORT THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH GFDN STILL INDICATING A RE-CURVE TRACK. THE UKMO, ECMWF, JGSM, TC-LAPS AND GFS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DISSIPATION WHILE NOGAPS AND WBAR SHOW A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND DISSIPATION AROUND 27N 148E. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS BASED ON INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND WILL WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION AND THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUPPORTING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT (24HRS FORMATION) STAGE

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 23KT (43KPH) MSLP: 1006.9MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT(0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)

CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 0KT/0KPH




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NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

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