TC 01W WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN VIETNAM

AS OF 10A JAN 20 2010 PHIL TIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01W

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 25KT (46KPH) MSLP: 1007.4MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 37KT (69KPH) MSLP: 995.8MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: +16.6C (SHEARED)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -7.6C (+2.5MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2

DISCUSSION:

12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON A 191030Z WINDSAT PASS. A 191137Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE WANING CONVECTION AND EXPOSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS

FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER MARGINAL WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE VWS, TD 01W WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF EGRR WHICH DEPICTS A DUE WEST TRACK, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W INVEST

WARNING STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: +0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0

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