WELCOME TO TYPHOON AND WEATHER IMAGERY. THIS BLOG CONTAINS REAL TIME WEATHER, TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES AND IMAGERY, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. CONTENTS OF DROP DOWN MENU CAN BE FOUND AFTER PHILIPPINE IMAGERY BELOW (SCROLL DOWNWARD). THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THIS SITE. YOU ARE FREE TO MAKE ANY COMMENT(S) OR FEEDBACK(S) ABOUT THIS BLOG.

ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

CLICK IMAGERIES TO REDIRECT ON COMPLETE IMAGERIES AND INFORMATIONS (Imageries will be seen after Philippines imagery below)

MORA

95W INVEST

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI DAYTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI 30MINUTES WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI HOURLY FUNKTOP LOOP IMAGERY (RAINFALL) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
HIMAWARI CLOUDTOP IMAGERY (THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY OF THAILAND METEOROLOGICAL DEPT.) (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
BACK TO THERMAL IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)

REAL TIME HOURLY SURFACE WIND AND RAINRATE WITH VALUE

CREDIT: VENTUSKY

Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.

DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

2011 FORECAST, WETTEST WEATHER AND MORE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED OVER PHILIPPINES

Disaster prone Philippines expected to face another wave of catastrophe if most of us wont be prepared. Current conditioning of both waters (South China sea and Philippines sea) triggering unseasonal weather such as stronger and longer thunderstorms, excess rainfall over most of the country, on and off cold and warm weather. Here are the current conditions, and possible climate conditioning that our country will have in the coming months including typhoon seasons.


List of Figures



SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
CIRCULATION
COLD PIXEL (CONVECTION)
SHEAR
INSTABILITY


MOISTURE


DIVERGENCE
EQUATORIAL TEMPERATURE/THERMOCLINE


OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION
SOI
150 M DEPTH

  • 2010-11 la nina is considered as one of the strongest and ranked number two between 1917-18, 1975-76, 1988-89 and 1998-2000.
  • -1.4C as of October-December anomalies.
  • Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains strongly positive at +26.2 during this month (January). SOI since april of 2010 were consistently positive. December 2010 SOI at +27.1, the strongest since June 1950 SOI of +26.9.
  • 150m Depth-average temperature anomaly (see figure above) shows higher at +4.0C observe along Western Pacific (130-140E) while lower at -4.6C over Eastern and Central Pacific.
  • Thermocline (Depth at which the rate of decrease of temperature with increase of depth is the largest) indicates (see figure above) a +4.5C high anomalies over Western Pacific with cooler at -5.1C over Central Pacific.
  • OLR (Outgoing longwave radiation) were negative over Philippines and Maritime continent, indicating that enhance rainfall persisted over the area.

Time Series along 100-150N (WESTERN PAC II: 100-120N/SOUTH CHINA SEA, WESTERN PAC III: 120-150N/PHILIPPINE SEA)

  • 850hpa Circulation: Above average over near western Philippines as near normal over the other side.
  • Sustained convection: Above average over both side of western pac II and III.
  • Vertical Shear: Below average over Western pac II as above average over III.
  • Instability: Above average over western Pacific II (produces more enhance thunderstorm) as below to near average over the other side.
  • Moisture over Mid and upper level: Well above average over Both side.
  • Horizontal divergence: near normal over South China sea as Above to near normal average over Philippine sea.
  • Surface Pressure: Lower surface Pressure over Both side.

FUTURE FORECAST

  • Monsoon break expected within the next 2-3 weeks after series of incessant rain over Philippines that resulted to flooding in different parts.
  • Warmer SST over Philippine sea expected to pump more moisture over the country.
  • This allow some convective formations linger each time frontal system appears.
  • February to mid- march is expected to be warmer with some instance of rainshower and/or thunderstorms in other area.
  • Mid- march to April, possible early transition towards rainy season as solar heating (due to longer day and shorter night) expected to pump more moisture over Philippines atmosphere and perhaps saturates quickly as mid- and upper level are completely saturated if current condition considered.
  • This considers the early arrival of pre-summer thunderstorms.
  • Tropical cyclone formations are possible during summer months (February-April).
  • Possible stronger Rainrate during southwest monsoon as lifespan of every convections to develop will be longer during the said period.
  • F0-F1 tornadoes also possible during rainy season (2008-09 moderate la-nina triggered series of tornadoes that touched down during strong monsoonal weather).

SUMMARY

Wet summer season is expected this year considering the current conditions mentioned above. This year is going to be the wettest since the last strong la-nina (1988-89). SOI index becomes strongest at +27.1, (Sustained positive SOI are associated with stronger trade winds and warmer than normal SST north of Australia, also known as La-nina episode while Sustained negative SOI are known to be El-nino episode) which resulted to flooding over Queensland, Brisbane due to above rainfall.
More strong to intense thunderstorms that might results to hail and even tornadoes expected mostly during pre-monsoon season.
Typhoon season on the other hand will become active after a record breaking last year of few tropical cyclone formation (14 named tropical cyclones).
Number of Tropical cyclone usually grew more in numbers mostly during la-nina and post la-nina
Chances of more tropical cyclones expected to hit land are good during early season (may-june) coming from South china sea.
During October-December, based on other la-nina years, most strong tropical cyclones developing and eventually most of them hitting land over Southern and Central Luzon including Bicol down to Visayas.





JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
Post a Comment

RAPID FIRE STATION

REAL TIME WEATHER NEAR MY PLACE



AYALA ALABANG

TWO FRAME RAINRATE IMAGERY


DMSP SSM/IS RAINRATE

AMSU RAINRATE

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN PACIFIC CENTRALPACIFIC
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH ATLANTIC
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
VORTICITY Percent Pixels Colder than -40°C 850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) Cloud-cleared Water Vapor Brightness Temperature (°C)MSLP (hPa)

HIMAWARI WESTERN PACIFIC IR TEMPERATURE IMAGERY

MY TWEETER

Academics

Lijit Search

GOOGLE SEARCH TOPIC

Search YouTube

Top Stories - Google News

Blog Archive

REFRESH TO UPDATE