Typhoon #Rolly (Goni) now a Category 5 Super typhoon, heading towards Luzon

⚠ BULLETIN October 30, 2020 5PM TROPICAL CYCLONE CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: GONI LOCAL NAME: #RollyPH STAGE: Category 5 Super Typhoon COORDINATES: 16.21°N, 131.30°E LOCATION: 970km East of Casiguran, Aurora DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY US [06UTC(1min aver.)]: 278km/hr; GUST: 343km/hr JAPAN-JMA[06UTC (10min aver.)]: 185km/hr; GUST: 259km/hr PAGASA[06UTC (10min aver.)]: 185km/hr; GUST: 230km/hr HONGKONG-HKO(06UTC): 241km/hr CHINA-NMC(06UTC): 224km/hr TAIWAN-CWB(06UTC): 183km/hr; GUST: 226km/hr SOUTH KOREA-KMA(06UTC): 176km/hr AVERAGE WINDSPEED: 235.5km/hr MIN. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 911mb TRACK: West-Southwest at 20km/hr SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 227.8km/hr (940.4mb) RAINRATE: ≥75mm/hr AUTOMATED DVORAK: 264.8km/hr (920.1mb) CLOUD TEMPERATURE: -76.3°C EYE/CENTER TEMPERATURE: +20.7°C SCENE TYPE: EYE ESTIMATED RADIUS OF MAX. WIND BASED ON IR: 11km SEA SURFACE TEMP.: 30°C (very warm) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT: very high and influx RELATIVE VORTICITY: Extreme (increased) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (average): 9.4kt/17.4km/hr (light, increased) STEERING WIND: Deep-layer subtropical ridge (STR) over West-NorthWest DISCUSSION: TY Goni undergo 2nd phase of rapidly intensification (25kt/6hrs) and now a category 5 super typhoon (the strongest so far in Western Pacific this year) and start to move more equatorward (WSW to SW) in response to large deep-layer subtropical ridge over West-Northwest which now act as a primary steering influence. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a very impressive, compact system with a sharp 9 nm eye, which has continued to rapidly intensify over the past six hours with microwave image showing very intense convection surrounding the very compact core. Robust radial outflow with the poleward outflow being enhanced as it taps into an upper-level mid latitude trough passing by to the north with low and decreased vertical windshear (VWS), very warm sea surface temperature with very high and influx value of ocean heat content are very conducive continues intensification. For the next 24hrs, STY Goni is expected to move more on a equatorward trackas steering mechanism now shifts to the Subtropical ridge centered over Southern China which will assume as a primary steering influence for the said system chances it may intensify to its peak before a possible eyewall replacement cycle after 24hrs to 285km/hr or a bit higher. LANDFALL OR NEAR THE EYE: none as of the moment BASED ON 5PM PAGASA BULLETIN TCWS#1: Catanduanes For realtime imagery visit the following link below: Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html GONI/#RollyPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Goni.html ASTANI realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Astani.html Kindly visit, subscribe and share this youtube channel to keep updated for latest weather bulletin, advisory and forecast. Just click the link below https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfvT2t7-KClwjJZXrIV0AYg/