04082022 - Tropical Cyclone Update and Weather Forecast

⚠ BULLETIN
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APRIL 08, 2022 2PM

DISCUSSION:
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TROPICAL CYCLONE MALAKAS

SATELLITE: A relatively elongated and disorganized circulation, with flaring convection extending in a linear fashion from northwest to southeast of the assessed low level center.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS: Moderate westward outflow, offsetting the effect of moderate easterly vertical windshear.
LOW LEVEL ANALYSIS: Excellent at warm sea surface temperature with very high value of ocean heat content.
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE: Southern periphery of deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) position over North.
NEXT 24HRS: For the next 24hrs, TS Malakas will intensify into severe tropical storm to a category 1 Typhoon with wind ma of 115-130km/hr*
*Subject to changes
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SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED ALONG INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AFFECTING VISAYAS AND MINDANAO; NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDFLOW OVER LUZON.
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MADALAS NA ULAN O THUNDERSTORMS: Silangang Visayas, Hilagang Mindanao, CARAGA Region (katamtaman hanggang sa napakalakas).
MATAAS NA TSANSA NG ULAN O THUNDERSTORMS: Natitirang bahagi ng Mindanao maliban sa SOCCSKSARGEN, Gitnang Visayas, Masbate, Timog ng Panay, Isabela, Aurora (mahina hanggang malakas).
KATAMTAMAN NA TSANSA NG ULAN O THUNDERSTORMS: Natitirang bahagi ng bansa maliban sa Ilocos region (mahina hanggang katamtaman).
MABABA O WALANG TSANSA NG ULAN O THUNDERSTORMS: Ilocos region (mahina lamang o wala halos ulan).
METRO MANILA: katamtamang tsansa ng mahinang ulan o thunderstorms.
LAGAY NG KARAGATAN: maalon sa hilaga Luzon - 3 metro (delikado sa maliit na sasakyang pandagat), banayad hanggang katamtamang alon - 2 metro (ligtas sa lahat ng sasakyang pandagat).
SAMA NG PANAHON: Invest 94W, 360km Silangan ng Surigao city, 30km/hr (1005mb); Invest 96W, 170km Kanluran-hilagang Kanluran ng Kota Kinabalu, 30km/hr (1007mb).
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS: 75-100% sa susunod na 24-48 na oras; 50% sa susunod na 24-48 na oras

(FREQUENT RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS: Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, CARAGA Region (moderate to very heavy).
HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS: Rest of Mindanao except SOCCSKSARGEN, Central Visayas, Masbate, South Panay, Isabela, Aurora (light to heavy).
MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS: Rest of the country except Ilocos region (light to moderate).
LOW OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS: Ilocos region (only light or almost no rain).
METRO MANILA: moderate chance of light rain or thunderstorms.
SEA CONDITIONS: rough in northern Luzon - 3 meters (dangerous for small vessels), mild to moderate - 2 meters (safe for all vessels).
WEATHER DISTURBANCE: Invest 94W, 360km East of Surigao city, 30km/hr (1005mb); Invest 96W, 170km West-Northwest of Kota Kinabalu, 30km/hr (1007mb).
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS: 75-100% over the next 24-48 hours; 50% over the next 24-48 hours
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Para naman sa realtime imagery bisitahin ang link sa ibaba
(For realtime imagery visit the following link below:)
Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html
TROPICAL CYCLONE MALAKAS: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2022/04/Tropical-Cyclone-Malakas.html
INVEST 94W: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2022/04/Tropical-Disturbance-94W.html
INVEST 96W: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2022/04/Tropical-Disturbance-96W.html

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HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST:
LAOAG CITY AT 34°C (02PM 04/08/2022)
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HIGHEST HEAT INDEX FORECAST:
DAGUPAN CITY AT 42.3°C (02PM 04/08/2022)
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HIGHEST TEMPERATURE AVER. FORECAST:
NCR SOUTH AT 28.8°C
LAOAG CITY AT 28.7°C
SANGLEY POINT AT 28.3°C
SUBIC AT 28.2°C
DAGUPAN AT 28.0°C
DAVAO CITY AT 27.6°C
CABANATUAN CITY AT 27.5°C
NCR NORTH AT 27.4°C
AMBULONG, BATANGAS AT 27.2°C
IBA, ZAMBALES AT 27.2°C
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HIGHEST HEAT INDEX AVER. FORECAST:
DAGUPAN AT 33.5°C
NCR SOUTH AT 32.5°C
SANGLEY POINT AT 32.5°C
DAVAO CITY AT 31.9°C
LAOAG CITY AT 31.5°C
CALAPAN CITY AT 30.9°C
CABANATUAN CITY AT 30.7°C
SUBIC AT 30.4°C
ALABAT AT 30.3°C
IBA, ZAMBALES AT 30.0°C
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HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE PER 3HRS FORECAST:
MALAYBALAY AT 16mm [05PM-08PM (04/08/2022)]
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HIGHEST TOTAL RAINFALL IN 24HRS FORECAST:
CAGAYAN DE ORO AT 52.4mm
BORONGAN CITY AT 49.0mm
MALAYBALAY CITY AT 48.8mm
SURIGAO CITY AT 40.5mm
CASIGURAN, AURORA AT 30.0mm
ZAMBOANGA CITY AT 26.5mm
VIRAC RADAR AT 26.4mm
DUMAGUETE CITY AT 26.1mm
TAGBILARAN CITY AT 22.4mm
HINATUAN AT 21.4mm
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HIGHEST MIN. AVERAGE WINDSPEED AND WAVE HEIGHT
BASCO AT 26.7km/hr; SLIGHT (≤1.25m)
CEBU CITY AT 15.4km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
ILOILO CITY AT 14.9km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
MANAPLA, NEGROS OCC AT 13.6km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
TANAY AT 12.8km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
LAOAG CITY AT 12.3km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
SUBIC AT 12.2km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
PANDAN, ANTIQUE AT 11.6km/hr; SMOOTH (≤0.5m)
PUERTO PRINCESA AT 10.8km/hr; CALM - RIPPLED (0.1m)
VIRAC RADAR AT 10.4km/hr; CALM - RIPPLED (0.1m)
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HIGHEST AVERAGE WINDGUST AND WAVE HEIGHT
BASCO AT 52.5km/hr; VERY ROUGH - SURGE (≤6.0m)
CEBU CITY AT 38.8km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
ILOILO CITY AT 36.9km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
SUBIC AT 33.1km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
MANAPLA, NEGROS OCC AT 33.1km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
PUERTO PRINCESA AT 32.5km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
PANDAN, ANTIQUE AT 31.3km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
TANAY AT 30.6km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
LAOAG CITY AT 29.4km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
CATARMAN CITY AT 28.8km/hr; MODERATE (≤2.5m)
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SUNRISE: 5:47AM (82°E)
SUNSET: 6:09PM (278°W)
SOLAR NOON: 11:58AM (82.6°)
DAYLENGTH: 12:21:48HRS (0.48 sec. longer than yesterday)

MOONRISE: 10:45AM (04/08/2022 AT 62°ENE)
MOONSET: 12:07AM (04/09/2022 AT 298°WNW)
ILLUMINATION: 39.3% to 41.7% (WAXING CRESCENT)

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Para sa mga datos/impormasyon, iclick ang video sa ibaba
(for more data/information click video below)


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IMAGE CREDIT TO THE FOLLOWING:
Weathernerds; Meteologix; CIMSS; RAMMBCIRA; SSEC/NOAA; Easterlywave; PAGASA; TIDE-FORECAST; WINDY.COM; JMA; JTWC; Tropical Tidbits; Typhoon2000.com; Thailand Met. Dept.; Time and date