WESTERN PACIFIC SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
NOV 18 2009

LATEST ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS TWIN SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK OVER WESTERN PACIFIC, ONE NEAR EAST OF MINDANAO. THOUGH NO TROPICAL INVEST EXISTING AS OF THE MOMENT, ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL AS 2 WEAK CIRCULATION SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS PRE-DISTURBANCE EXIST, THEN THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY TO HAPPEN THOUGH EVERY 12 HRS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MORE RAINS EXPECTED AS 2 TROPICAL DISTURBANCES (92W AND 93W) APPROACHES PHILIPPINES

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PHILIPPINES

LATEST CLOSE UP SATELLITE IMAGERY OF CONVECTION

LATEST CLOUD TOP IMAGERY

LATEST WIND IMAGERY

IMAGES OF THE DAY

(AS OF 7P[09:30UTC] APRIL 22, 2009)

CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WARNING 92W

15.4N, 119.4E

10KTS SLP 1010MB

NE 11KTS

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WARNING 93W

3.1N, 144.5E

10KTS SLP 1010MB

W 7KTS

RAINRATE:22-23mm/hr

SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS, MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO.

Tropical disturbance 92w remain weak but send torrential shower for most of the part of the country as it is now embedded under renewed frontal system. 92W will likely to be weak due to proximity over land but light to heavy shower and thunderstorm still expected over Luzon and Western Visayas as Southwesterly wind flow remains a dominant weather system affecting out country.

Meanwhile, another area of disturbance named 93W now slowly showing some consolidation along caroline is as it is moving W at 7kts. 93W is embedded under monsoon trough. 93W likely to intensify within 24hrs and could reach an alert status so we are watching it closely.

Most of the country is expected to have thunderstorm tonight and tomorrow with winds at 28kph from SW expected over Luzon and Western Visayas while 37kph from SE-S elsewhere.

This could be a sign that onset of rainy season begins this early.

AREAS MOSTLY PRECIPITATED BASED ON 3BR2RT TRMM IN THE PHILIPPINES

1 DAY
39.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55

42.00 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55

42.00 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38

46.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97

52.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90

57.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97

59.00 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57

62.00 mm TANDAG/MINDANAO ISL 9.07 126.17

63.00 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62

64.00 mm BUGSUK ISLAND 8.18 117.30

64.00 mm DAGUPAN/LUZON ISL 16.05 120.33

66.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32

66.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

76.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60

77.00 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63

80.00 mm TUGUEGARAO/LUZON IL 17.62 121.73

89.00 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

111.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
3 DAYS
100.00 mm CLARK AFB/LUZON ISL 15.18 120.55

100.00 mm CROW VALLEY GNRY RG 15.32 120.38

101.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60

105.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63

107.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32

107.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

109.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97

118.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38

121.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90

128.00 mm BUGSUK ISLAND 8.18 117.30

158.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
7 DAYS
205.08 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38

209.96 mm ILIGAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.15 124.22

244.14 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

253.91 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63

268.55 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63

288.09 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55