NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W DEVELOPING, MAY BECOME A BIG THREAT TO PHILIPPINES ANEW NEXT WEEK

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 14, 2009)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (22W) FORECAST

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT
LOCATION: 9.6N, 152.9E (OPEN NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1007MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (28-37KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: +30-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-INTENSE (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 25-30KT/37-46KPH

DVORAKMSLP : 1007.1MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1007.1MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE: THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS BASED ON ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS IN WILL ENTER PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN OCT 19-20 AS CATEGORY 1-2 SYSTEM AS IT HEADED MORE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 3-4 TYPHOON BY OCT 21-22 AND EXPECTED TO HIT LUZON ISLAND (AURORA-ISABELA OR ISABELA-CAGAYAN) BETWEEN OCT 22-23 AS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4. THIS WILL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGHT AND EXTENT OF THE SAID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING NOW BOTH OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN AND SIBERIA WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME A DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR 94W.


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

CRISING WEAKENS; 94W INTENSIFYING AS 93/95W DEVELOPING

IMAGES OF THE DAY

(AS OF 3P[06:30UTC] APRIL 30, 2009)

CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PHILIPPINES

LATEST CLOSE UP SATELLITE IMAGERY OF CONVECTION

LATEST CLOUD TOP IMAGERY

LATEST WIND IMAGERY

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEVERE ALERT 96W/CRISING
POSITION: 13.2N, 118.3E
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH
SLP: 1006.9MB

0.5C AT 12KM
MOVEMENT: ALMOST STATIONARY
POTENTIAL: REINTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12-24HRS

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEVERE ALERT 94W
POSITION: 13.4N, 123.3E
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH
SLP: 1007.3MB

0.5C AT 13KM
MOVEMENT: STATIOANARY
POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: GOOD

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SEVERE ALERT 93W/95W
POSITION: 14.0N,137.7E
WINDSPEED:20-25KT/37-46KPH
SLP:1005.4MB

0.5C AT 13KM
MOVEMENT:ERRATIC
POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: GOOD.

RAINRATE:22-23mm/hr

SYNOPSIS: SEVERE ALERT CRISING /96W AND SEVERE ALERT 94W OVER LUZON; WEAK MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO.

Minimal depression Crising/96W weakens for the past 6hrs as its convection and upper divergence weakens. Crising and 94W continues to interact with each other causing some erratic movement as high pressure ridge continues to dominate as primary steering influence that pushes more the 2 system equator ward. Shear begins to relax and improving convection spotted based on latest imagery as vortices continues to increase along the area of LLCC. Crising continues to struggle but slowly to re-intensify into minimal depression tonight as improving environmental factor such as wind shear, upper divergence and pole ward outflow fuels this intensification. Meanwhile, 94W intensified for the past 6 hrs as it is noving back to warmer water near east of bicol region as convection persisted at level 6 along LLCC. Latest vapor imagery shows poleward outflow slowly improving along the area in response over retreating high over Japan, however remain to slowly intensify due to interaction between Crising and 93/95W but possibility it may develop within 24 hrs are now upgraded to good as poleward and upper divergence improving.

93/95W continues to slowly intensify and now expected to developed into minimal depression within the next 24hrs. Based on vorticity imagery, It increases into high vorticity indicating further strengthening expected. Shear over the area remain low-moderate with average of 12.5kts. As poleward and upper divergence improves with warm SST and high OHC over the area, 93/95W likely to developed within 24hrs.

AREAS MOSTLY PRECIPITATED BASED ON 3BR2RT TRMM IN THE PHILIPPINES

1 DAY
39.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65
44.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
46.00 mm ILOILO/PANAY ISLAND 10.70 122.57
58.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 14.63 121.02
64.00 mm MANILA/LUZON ISLAND 14.58 120.98
64.00 mm NINOY AQUINO INTL 14.52 121.00
64.00 mm SANGLEY POINT AB 14.50 120.92
66.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
69.00 mm MAMBURAO/MINDORO IL 13.22 120.60
73.00 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
75.00 mm SAN JOSE/MINDORO IL 12.35 121.03
78.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
79.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
83.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
83.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
91.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
100.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
109.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
109.00 mm MARINDUQUE ISLAND 13.37 121.83
110.00 mm ROMBLON/TABLAS ISL 12.58 122.27
111.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
112.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
118.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
122.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
138.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
138.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
198.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23

3 DAYS
102.00 mm SAN JOSE/MINDORO IL 12.35 121.03
102.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
104.00 mm BACOLOD/NEGROS ISL 10.65 122.93
110.00 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
113.00 mm ROMBLON/TABLAS ISL 12.58 122.27
114.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
132.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
147.00 mm MACATAN 12.37 123.62
151.00 mm ROXAS/PANAY ISLAND 11.58 122.75
158.00 mm CALBAYOG/SAMAR ISL 12.07 124.55
159.00 mm MARINDUQUE ISLAND 13.37 121.83
166.00 mm SAN FRANCISCO 13.37 122.52
167.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
179.00 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
197.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
197.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
212.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
212.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
255.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
255.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
255.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23

7 DAYS

205.08 mm MARINDUQUE ISLAND 13.37 121.83
214.84 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 13.42 121.18
214.84 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65
219.73 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
244.14 mm TAYABAS 14.03 121.58
278.32 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
292.97 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
292.97 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
297.85 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
297.85 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
302.73 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
483.40 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23

2 MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCE LINGER AS 93(95W) INTENSIFYING

IMAGES OF THE DAY

(AS OF 3P[05:30UTC] APRIL 28, 2009)

CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PHILIPPINES

LATEST CLOSE UP SATELLITE IMAGERY OF CONVECTION

LATEST CLOUD TOP IMAGERY

LATEST WIND IMAGERY

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WARNING 93W/95W

POSITION: 7.2N, 137.2E

WINDSPEED: 15KTS/28KPH

SLP:1010MB

MOVEMENT: STATIONARY.

POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: GOOD.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WARNING 94W

POSITION: 15.6N, 123.6E

WINDSPEED: 15KTS/28KPH

SLP: 1010MB

MOVEMENT: STATIONARY.

POTENTIAL FOR 24HRS: FAIR.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WARNING UNNAMED.

POSITION: 13.0N, 116.0E

WINDSPEED: 15KTS/28KPH

SLP: 1010MB

MOVEMENT: WEST SLOWLY

POTENTIAL: WEAK

RAINRATE:13-14mm/hr

SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AND 94W OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS, WEAK MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) OVER VISAYAS AND MINDANAO.

Tropical disturbance 93W renamed to 95W consolidated this time good as both its wind circulation, upper divergence, vortices and convections improved a lot for the past 12hrs indicating its potentials within 24hrs very possible. Upper levl divergence inceased to 30kts indicating its pressure dropping this time. 93/95W currently under the steering influence of competing building High over China and frontal system over NE. Poleward outflow improved fairly this time. 93/95W expected to become a Severe alert within 12 hrs and probably become a Minimal depression within 24-36hrs.

Elsewhere, unexpected development of 94W brought rain most of the day today mostly over Luzon. 94W developed due to interaction of 2 different strong wind system, from NE due to High pressure ridge and SW windflow that produces some mesocyclone circulation over the area. 94W is expected to remain as warninng as shear remain moderate over the area but poleward outflow warm SST and good OHC will maintain its intensity and potential is fair despite of low vortices over the area.

Elsewhere, another developing over South China sea. TRopical disturbance unnamed continues to developed as convection slowly building but not yet consolidating. potential for unnamed is weak within 24hrs but possible improvement likely within those hours.

Rain and thunderstorm still expected most of Luzon and western Visayas as SW windflow and monsoon trough continues to affect the area. Winds still strong at 63kph over Northern Luzon becoming moderate at 28kph over the rest of the country.

AREAS MOSTLY PRECIPITATED BASED ON 3BR2RT TRMM IN THE PHILIPPINES

1 DAY
35.00 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
36.00 mm MANILA/LUZON ISLAND 14.58 120.98
36.00 mm NINOY AQUINO INTL 14.52 121.00
36.00 mm SANGLEY POINT AB 14.50 120.92
41.00 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
51.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
64.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65
80.00 mm COTABATO/MINDANAO 7.17 124.22

3 DAYS
102.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
103.00 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63
112.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
121.00 mm CASIGURAN/LUZON ISL 16.28 122.12
133.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
140.00 mm INFANTA/LUZON ISL 14.75 121.65

7 DAYS

200.20 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
205.08 mm AMBULONG/LUZON ISL 14.08 121.05
214.84 mm DAGUPAN/LUZON ISL 16.05 120.33
229.49 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
234.37 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57
239.26 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
239.26 mm TANAY 14.50 121.35
268.55 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60