TD 90W STRENGTHEN AT THE COAST OF VIETNAM; 99W NOW OVER INDIAN OCEAN; TOMAS THREATENS HAITI

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 90W


WTPN22 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 110.7E TO 12.8N 108.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 032030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION).
THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF
VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK,
RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 042100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 99W


WTIO21 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 031054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS), THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE
WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041500Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S


040900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 94.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS NO LONGER MEETS THE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SYSTEMS. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON FALLING T-
NUMBERS FROM PGTW. CURRENTLY PGTW IS REPORTING A 2.0/2.5, WHICH
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO 30 - 35 KNOTS. MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS HIGHER VWS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS


040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 75.2W OR APPROX 256NM SW OF PORT AU
PRINCE, HAITI. 12 FT SEAS: 060NM NE, 060NM SE, 000NM SW, 000NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040902Z, 041502Z, 042102Z AND 050302Z.//
BT
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