 |
| 3 different condition of SST along western pacific (2007, 2009-2010). Warmer SST condition remains over east of Mindanao |
 |
| 850 mb shows above climatological condition an indication that vorticity continuously developing. |
 |
| Depth 26C shows warmer and deeper themocline over western pacific (2007, 2009-2010) |
 |
| Equatorial thermocline shows colder water remained declining over eastern Pacific, whereas, warmer are observe along most of Philippines mostly over Eastern Mindanao |
 |
| Tropical cyclone formation probabilities remain active based on climatological condition |
 |
| This figure shows high and deeper convective formation over Philippines resulted to warm SST and lower shear |
 |
| For graphical understanding |
 |
| Sea height anomalies remains deeper and warmer (2007, 2009-2010). Warming are much higher compared to last La-nina (2007) |
 |
| Recent SST and condition of La-nina |
 |
| Vertical instability remain almost below climatological rate however, chances are high for becoming above climatological rate |
 |
| Shear almost normal but showing some below climatological rate |
 |
| High moisture content are available as it remains below climatological rate (rising means drier condition) |
 |
| lower SST anomalies remains over Eastern Equatorial pacific |
- Overall, based on above figures, conditions favors for above to high rainfall conditions expected over Eastern section of the country (mostly Mindanao and Visayas) while out of season rainfall expected over the rest including Metro manila.
- Deep and strong convective formations are likely as abundant moisture over all level of atmosphere persist due to warmer SST and deeper high thermocline east of Philippines observe.
- Wetter December are likely including some out of season tropical disturbances including tropical cyclones.
- La-nina remains strong and even getting stronger as evidence of stronger easterly wind almost most of Pacific.
SOURCE:
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment