If current sea surface temperature and sea height anomalies including atmospheric condition over Western Pacific won’t change, then a possibility a warmer but wet summer likely to this year over Philippines.Latest images shows, sea surface temperature along near to equator up to 15N have some rapid build up, as deeper and warmer sea condition also observed along near Marianas island to Philippine sea with increase above 30cm over the area. Convection also persist over near equator to 13N both Western and South China Sea, with some series of small circulation observed for the past 6 weeks.
Vortices also continuously observed at low to moderate level along near equator as shear expected to increase over the area. Upper divergence also expected to reach negative as high pressure expected to dominate along the area.
This indicators supported by images, foresee that more early warmer temperature expected to felt most of the Philippines. Conditions over SST and height anomalies will lead some more moisture availability over above troposphere that could lead to multiple formations of Level 2-5 convection along the area.
Although, this coming March is considered having at least 1 tropical cyclone, A probability of having at least 2-3 before May might happen if to consider the current condition of Western Pacific. Only low shear and low level westerly wind including monsoon trough (ITCZ) are the missing content for tropical cyclogenesis up to this time.
Possibly, areas to have more rains within next 3 months are Mindanao mostly eastern part, Eastern Visayas. Some light to moderate rains might happen along rest of Mindanao and Visayas including Eastern Luzon and Bicol region. Light rain expected to felt over Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, as warmer but probably moist area likely to evolve to March-May.
(FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST THIS YEAR, I WILL RELEASE MY OWN OBSERVATION WITHIN 1ST WEEK OF APRIL)
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