MINIMAL DEPRESSION 98W (FERIA) RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING THREATHENS BICOL REGION

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 6P[6:30UTC] JUNE 14, 2009)
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TRACT

WIND ANALYSIS

RAIN RATE

PRESSURE

SHEAR

98W INVEST

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

RAIN ANALYSIS

CONVECTION/CLOUDTOP

MINIMAL DEPRESSION 98W/RE-FERIA

LOCATION: 13.0N, 127.3E (APPROXIMATELY 363KM EAST OF BICOL REGION)
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT/46-65KPH
SLP: 1008.4MB
MOVEMENT: NW AT 7KT/13KPH
VORTICES: HIGH
EYE TEMP: 0.5C
SHEAR: 7.5KT
UPPER DIVERGENCE: EXCELLENT AT 40KT
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE DEPRESSION/MINIMAL STORM (30-40KT)

Rapid deepening of pressure expected within 12-24hrs as excellent upper divergence with good equatorial outflow and slowly developing poleward outflow observed over the area. Also, 98w has a very warm SST and good OHC and deep warm sea height anomalies. It is more likely to induce slowly Southwest monsoon as it barely move NW along SW periphery of High pressure ridge located over Western Pacific which acts as a primary steering influence over this system.

COVERED (JUNE 13-14 3:00UTC) 1 DAY
36.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
41.00 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62
42.00 mm MACTAN INTL(CIV/AF) 10.30 123.97
44.00 mm PAGADIAN/MINDANAO 7.83 123.47
48.00 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63
64.00 mm DUMAGUETE/NEGROS IL 9.30 123.30

COVERED (JUNE 12-14 3:00UTC) 3 DAYS
NO 100MM ABOVE RAINFALL

COVERED (JUNE 8-14 3:00UTC) 7 DAYS
NO 200MM ABOVE RAINFALL