TC LAURENCE NOW OVER LAND, 91W STILL SURVIVING AS TC DAVID INTENSIFYING SLOWLY

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

ALERT STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 19KT (35KPH) MSLP: 1009.1MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH/LEVEL 1


TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (FINAL ADVISORY)

CATEGORY 1 STAGE (LEVEL 7/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 75kt GUST: 90kt (139-167kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 967MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 63KT (117KPH) MSLP: 978.9MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (LANDFALL)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 55KT/102KPH/LEVEL 6


TROPICAL CYCLONE DAVID (05S)

STRONG STORM STAGE (LEVEL 5/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 45kt GUST: 55kt (83-102kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 989MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 41KT (76KPH) MSLP: 1000.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 55KT (102KPH) MSLP: 985.0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -79.2C (CDO)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -77.9C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 55KT/102KPH/LEVEL 6

*NO AVAILABLE DATA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC LAURENCE FINAL ADVISORY; 91W AND 92W INVEST OVER PACIFIC; 05S STILL SURVIVING

AS OF 130P PHIL TIME DEC 18 2009

WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN: 91W; 92W
SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN: LAURENCE
ATLANTIC OCEAN: NONE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN: NONE
NORTH AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: 05S

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W INVEST

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 15KT (28KPH) MSLP: 1009.0MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W INVEST

WARNING STAGE (LEVEL 0/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1010MB
*SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+5MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH/LEVEL 0


**TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE (FINAL ADVISORY)

MINIMAL STORM STAGE (LEVEL 4/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 35kt GUST: 45kt (65-83kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 996MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 32KT (59KPH) MSLP: 1004.7MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (LANDFALL)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2


TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S

MINIMAL DEPRESSION STAGE (LEVEL 2/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 25kt GUST: 35kt (46-65kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1004MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 23KT (43KPH) MSLP: 1012.5MB
*ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT (0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
*CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
*CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+25MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH/LEVEL 2


*NO AVAILABLE DATA
**OVER LAND


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

UNSETTLED LONG RANGE FORECAST REMAINS OVER WESTERN PACIFIC

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
NOV 19 2009

NOV 22-29 FORECAST

IMAGERY

It is still unsetteled this time as 12hrs forecast remain changeable due to multiple pre-disturbance existing over the area however, 92w invest now developing, another potential development of invest now sighted near east of Mindanao and sooner become an invest. Long range forecas vary depending on the steering mechanism available over northern hemisphere during those periods. Stay up-to-date over this forecast within the next 24-72hrs.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

EL-NINO INTENSIFYING STRONGER THAN 2002 AND 2006 CONDITION

EL NINO ADVISORY (AS OF 5P NOVEMBER 12, 2009)

IMAGES AND GRAPHS OF LATEST CONDITION OVER EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC

DISCUSSION

Central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past two weeks, and are now at their highest levels since at least the El Niño event of 2002. Similarly, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index is lower than at any time since 2005. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds into the first quarter of 2010. A sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October and early November enabled central Pacific equatorial temperatures to rise up to 2°C above normal. However, average to stronger than average Trade Winds currently over the western Pacific may curtail any further warming during the next fortnight. The distribution of tropical cloud has similarities to the patterns observed in the 2002 and 2006 El Niño events, while recent rainfall patterns over Australia are typical of mature El Niño conditions. The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions. Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event. Ocean surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have continued to warm and now exceed levels typical of an El Niño event by their greatest margin since the start of the year. The SST anomaly map for October is available here; the map shows warm anomalies in excess of +1°C covering most of the tropical Pacific east of 160°E, with anomalies exceeding +2°C in parts of the central Pacific. While the central Pacific warmed in October, the far western Pacific west of about 160°E cooled steadily. Until recently, warm SST anomalies had persisted in this region, which was atypical for an El Niño. The map shows near-normal SSTs covering most of the western Pacific and northern waters around Australia. The monthly NINO indices for October were +0.9°C, +1.1°C and +1.3°C for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 respectively. When compared with September values, NINO4 warmed by approximately +0.5°C and NINO3.4 by approximately +0.2°C. NINO3 remained similar in magnitude. n terms of weekly data, the most recent NINO indices are +1.4°C, +1.7°C and +1.5°C for NINO3, NINO3.4, and NINO4 respectively. When compared with two weeks ago, all NINO indices have warmed; NINO3 by approximately 0.4°C, NINO3.4 by approximately 0.5°C and NINO4 by approximately 0.1°C. All three NINO indices currently have their highest weekly value for 2009. The 7-day SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies in excess of +1°C covering most of the tropical Pacific east of 160°E, with anomalies exceeding +2°C on a weekly scale across most of the central tropical Pacific. When compared with anomalies observed two weeks ago, the ocean surface has warmed in both the central and eastern Pacific. An animation of recent recent SST changes is available. The sub-surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has also continued to warm in the last two weeks. A large volume of warmer than normal water is now well established beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific. A four-month sequence of Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly is available here. The sequence shows cooling of the sub-surface from July through September followed by a relatively rapid warming during October. This warming has continued into November. A recent map for the 5 days ending 9 November shows a large volume of sub-surface water more than 3°C warmer than normal for this time of the year extending across much of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies in excess of 6°C are now evident between 150°W and 120°W on a weekly scale. When compared with two weeks ago, the sub-surface has warmed strongly in the central Pacific, related to a strong westerly wind burst in the western Pacific during October. This warming has propagated eastwards during recent weeks. An animation of recent sub-surface changes is available. Cloudiness near the date-line over the equatorial Pacific is another important indicator of El Niño conditions, as it typically increases near and to the east of the dateline during these episodes. Cloudiness near the date-line has generally been slightly below average in recent weeks. However, there has been significant enhanced cloudiness to the west of the date-line, a pattern which is unusual when compared with typical El Niño events, but not unprecedented as such conditions were also observed during the recent 2006 El Niño event and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event. Cloudiness over Indonesia and much of northern and eastern Australia has been below average over the last few months, which is consistent with typical El Niño conditions.

For more information click this link: WEEKLY EL-NINO REPORT.

COURTESY:
NOAA/NWS/CPC
AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGY

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MARING NOW OVER VIETNAM, NANDO THREATHENS LUZON AS NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W DEVELOPED

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2009

LATEST IR IMAGERY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MINIMAL)

9-12-09 3P

LOCATION: 14.45N, 152.40E (660 KM E MARIANAS ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: 0MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -49.03C
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.8MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1001.8MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 997.6MB VMAX: 34KT/63KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.0MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112117Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SITTING UNDERNEATH THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 112330Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 112349Z TRMM IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY UTILIZES DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW (T1.5) AND KNES (T2.0)

TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE DATE LINE AND EXTENDS TOWARDS EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL-CHANNEL, UPPER-LEVEL OUFLOW. THE TUTT AND TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BETWEEN TAU'S 72 AND 120, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND CONTINUE ITS INTENSITY TREND AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE. THERE IS LIMITED INTENSITY GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT, SO THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR THE TRACK, THIS FORECAST IS SIDING WITH THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMF SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN THE NOGAPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A POLEWARD BIAS THIS SEASON*

SEVERE ALERT 91W (NANDO)

LOCATION: 16.1N, 125.9E (370KM E CASIGURAN, AURORA)
MSLP: 1004.7MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 12.9KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 25-30KT/46-56KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55KPH

DISCUSSION:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 127.1E TO 19.4N 119.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112212Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112157Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SHOWED AN IMPROVED, STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEARTHE CENTER. STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK ARE SHOWN BUT ARE SUSPECT SINCE THEY ARE SURROUNDED BY RAINFLAGGED DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION (A8ME4) WEST OF THE CENTER AT 111900Z INDICATED 22 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD*

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W /MUJIGAE (MARING)


LOCATION: 20.01N, 105.45E (NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 13MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 11KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MLSP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP :N/A VMAX: N/A KPH

*SOURCE: NOAA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

12W DEVELOPED OFF WESTERN PACIFIC, DEEPENING RAPIDLY

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W

STRUCTURE OF 12W

NEAR THE CENTER

8-28-09 1P

LOCATION: 22.60N, 148.02E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1000.0MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 998.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13.5KM HIGH 170KM RADIUS (DVORAK: -62.35C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO HAS TRACKEDNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AS BANDING HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE SYSTEM. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 26.1N 146.3E AND HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A TROUGH NEAR 22.7N 163.0E HAS CONTINUED TO ALLOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. SOUTH OF THE LLCC UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM.

CURRENTLY TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).AS A ID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN LIFTS NORTHWARD,THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER JAPAN CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VIGOROUS AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED, LEADING TO A SLOWER INTENISIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24. SST AND VWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW BASED ON POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION LEADING TO LIMITED GUIDANCE.

BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN BY TAU 120 AS THE STR CONTINUES BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT THE FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT TAU 120 ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAPAN.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

98W INVEST STILL UNDER UNFAVOURABLE CONDITION

IMAGERY OF 98W INVEST

8-26-09 1P

ALERT 98W INVEST (JMA: WEAK DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 20.4N, 136.3E (1450KM E EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON)
MSLP: 1005.3MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: N/A VMAX: N/A])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 6MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 14.5KM HIGH 85KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DISCUSSION:

RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD MID-LEVEL TURNING AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS).HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IS HINDERING OUTFLOW AND BRINGING COOLER, DRIER AIR.

AS OF AUG 26 2009 1:00P

COVERED (AUG 25-26 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
36.00 mm KALIBO/PANAY ISLAND 11.68 122.38
45.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
48.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
52.00 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57
55.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
66.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08

COVERED (AUG 23-26 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
131.00 mm CAGAYAN DE TAWI-TAWI 7.00 118.08

COVERED (AUG 19-26 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm and above rainfall

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON VAMCO WEAKENING

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON VAMCO

TYPHOON VAMCO STRUCTURE

EYE OF TYPHOON VAMCO


8-24-09 1P

LOCATION: 31.80N, 154.82E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 966MB
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 927.5MB VMAX:112.4KT/208KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.0KM HIGH 75KM RADIUS (DVORAK: +5.6C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 11W HAS STARTED A NORTHWARD TRACK. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE RAGGED EYE, WITH A SLIGHT ELONGATION IN THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS BEEN BROKEN BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11W. THE EASTERN OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SEPARATION OF 11W AND THE TUTT CELL INCREASES. OVERALL, VAMCO REMAINS BUFFERED FROM SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS COMPACT SIZE AND THE LACK OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 11W, BUT HAS YET TO PENETRATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE APPROACHING 28 C.

TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TY 11W RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 11W WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 WITH ET COMPLETION BY TAU 36. DECREASING SST VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 11W AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36, THE REMNANT LOW WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

EL-NINO SLOWED DOWN

EL-NINO REPORT
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

SST ANOMALIES

SST IMAGERY

The El Niño pattern across the Pacific has not intensified during the past fortnight. Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this.

However, the Trade Winds are weakening over a broad area and this may promote renewed warming. In addition, leading climate models continue to predict further development of the El Niño, although not as emphatically as a month or two back. Therefore, the odds remain strongly in favour of 2009 being recognised as an El Niño year.

July and August have seen below average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, with particularly dry conditions through Queensland and northern NSW. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

In addition, conditions have recently been very warm for the time of year across Australia, with maximum temperatures consistently more than 4°C above normal over wide areas.

The most recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is near zero. The Bureau's POAMA model suggests the DMI should remain neutral over the coming months.

See IOD forecasts, DMI values.

SUMMARY

• The sea surface remains significantly warmer than the long-term average across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, exceeding El Niño thresholds in central to eastern areas.
• The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific cooled through July and August. However, a large volume of the sub-surface water still remains significantly warmer than the long-term average.
• The latest 30-day SOI value is −4; the monthly value for July was +2. These SOI values are near neutral and do not show an El Niño trend.
• While Trade Winds have been consistently weaker than normal across the western equatorial Pacific in recent months, they have fluctuated over the central to eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening observed recently.
• Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been slightly below average. Cloudiness near the date-line is usually greater than average during El Niño events.
• Six of the seven leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2009

SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, EL-NINO WATCH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

07W/MOLAVE WILL HIT HONGKONG, 95W INVEST DEVELOPING OFF EASTERN VISAYAS

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 5P[08:30UTC] JULY 18, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

07W WIND AND CONVECTION


95W INVEST WIND AND CONVECTION


96W WIND AND CONVECTION

SHEAR

RAINRATE

WIND

UPPER DIVERGENCE

VORTICES



AS OF 5P

SEVERE STORM 07W/MOLAVE (ISANG)
LOCATION: 21.7N, 117.2E (430KM WEST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON);
WINDSPEED: 55-70KT/102-130KPH;
SLP: 983.3MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: VERY HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 3.0C AT 13KM;
SHEAR: 20KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE STORM 50-55KT/92-102KPH AT 22.5N, 115.0E

ALERT 95W INVEST
LOCATION: 12.4N, 131.6E (610KM EAST OF VISAYAS);
WINDSPEED: 15-20KT/28-37KPH;
SLP: 1008.1MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 5KT/9KPH;
VORTICES: LOW;
EYE TEMP: 0.0C AT 10KM;
SHEAR: 15KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: ALERT AT 15-20KT

ALERT 96W INVEST
LOCATION: 23.6N, 155.8E (OPEN PACIFIC);
WINDSPEED: 15-20KT/28-37KPH;
SLP: 1004.2MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 5KT/9KPH;
VORTICES: LOW-MODERATE;
EYE TEMP: 3.0C AT 17KM;
SHEAR: 25KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: WEAK AT -10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: ALERT AT 15-20KT

07W is expected to made landfall near HongKong late tonight or early morning as severe storm at 50-55kt wind maximum.

95W expected to be watch though it is poorly organized however, it is expected to become a severe alert within 24hrs.

96W meantime still organizing but 25kt shear inhibit its intensification, thus it is likely to remain as alert within 24hrs.


COVERED (JULY 17-18 03:00UTC) 1 DAY
36.00 mm BUTUAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.93 125.52
36.00 mm TACLOBAN/LEYTE ISL 11.25 125.00
43.00 mm OZAMIS/MINDANAO ISL 8.18 123.85
49.00 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62
53.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
57.00 mm ILIGAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.15 124.22
59.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97
62.00 mm LUMBIA AIRPORT 8.43 124.28
63.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
63.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33
69.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
71.00 mm CAGAYAN DE ORO 8.48 124.63
106.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
131.00 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

COVERED (JULY 16-18 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
101.00 mm CALAPAN/MINDORO ISL 14.63 121.02
108.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
113.00 mm MANILA/LUZON ISLAND 14.58 120.98
113.00 mm NINOY AQUINO INTL 14.52 121.00
113.00 mm SANGLEY POINT AB 14.50 120.92
115.00 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
132.00 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63
135.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
135.00 mm IBA/LUZON ISLAND 15.33 119.97
140.00 mm TUGUEGARAO/LUZON IL 17.62 121.73
150.00 mm SANTO-TOMAS MTN 16.33 120.57
178.00 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53
179.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
182.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
217.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
224.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
243.00 mm CASIGURAN/LUZON ISL 16.28 122.12

COVERED (JULY 12-18 03:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
205.08 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
209.96 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
209.96 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33
224.61 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53
229.49 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
249.02 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
249.02 mm CASIGURAN/LUZON ISL 16.28 122.12

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

07W (ISANG) THREATHENS NORTHERN LUZON, SOUTHWEST MONSOON GET STRONGER

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 3P[06:30UTC] JULY 16, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

94W CONVECTION

07W CONVECTION

94W WIND

07W WIND

VORTICES

UPPER DIVERGENCE

SHEAR

RAINRATE

AS OF 3P

MINIMAL STORM 07W (ISANG)

LOCATION: 17.0N, 125.1E (APPROXIMATELY 260KM EAST OF ISABELA);
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT/65-83KPH;
SLP: 999.9MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 8KT/15KPH;
VORTICES: VERY HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 2.0C;
SHEAR: 20KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: STRONG STORM 40-45KT

SEVERE ALERT 94W INVEST

LOCATION: 19.2N, 107.3E (APPROXIMATELY 180KM EAST OF NORTHERN VIETNAM);
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH;
SLP: 1001.7MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 1.0C AT 8KM;
SHEAR: 5KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE ALERT 20KT

COVERED (JULY 15-16 03:00UTC) 1 DAY
35.00 mm NAULA POINT/LUZON 15.70 119.97
39.00 mm APARRI RADAR 18.37 121.62
39.00 mm APARRI/LUZON ISLAND 18.37 121.63
40.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
40.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
42.00 mm LEGAZPI/LUZON ISL 13.13 123.73
47.00 mm ALABAT ISLAND 14.08 122.02
47.00 mm DAET/LUZON ISLAND 14.13 122.98
53.00 mm BALER RADAR 15.75 121.63
53.00 mm MUNOZ/LUZON ISLAND 15.72 120.90
55.00 mm NAGA/LUZON ISLAND 13.58 123.27
55.00 mm PILI 13.57 123.27
62.00 mm CABANANATUAN/LUZON 15.48 120.97
63.00 mm VIRAC/CATANDUANES 13.58 124.23
76.00 mm BALER/LUZON ISLAND 15.77 121.57
82.00 mm TUGUEGARAO/LUZON IL 17.62 121.73
88.00 mm CASIGURAN/LUZON ISL 16.28 122.12
COVERED (JULY 14-16 03:00UTC) 3 DAYS
142.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
142.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

COVERED (JULY 10-16 03:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
200.20 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33
288.09 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
385.74 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

07W (ISANG) THREATHENS NORTHERN LUZON

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 3P[06:30UTC] JULY 15, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

94W WIND

94W CONVECTION

MINIMAL DEPRESSION 07W (ISANG) WIND

MINIMAL DEPRESSION 07W (ISANG) CONVECTION

RAINRATE

WIND

SHEAR

UPPER DIVERGENCE

VORTICES

AS OF 3P

MINIMAL DEPRESION 07W (ISANG)

LOCATION: 14.6N, 127.7E (APPROXIMATELY 320KM EAST OF CATANDUANES);
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT/46-65KPH;
SLP: 1005.4MB;
MOVEMENT: NORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 1.0C;
SHEAR: 7.5KT; UPPER DIVERGENCE: GOOD AT 20KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: MINIMAL STORM 35-40KT

SEVERE ALERT 94W INVEST

LOCATION: 18.9N, 113.4E (APPROXIMATELY 290KM EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA);
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH;
SLP: 1003.2MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 0.5C;
SHEAR: 15KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: POOR AT 5KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: SEVERE ALERT 20KT

07W expected to intensify as deep convective band started to improved as TUTT developing over NE expected to provide some poleward outflow as upper divergence improved also.

It is under the steering influence of SW quandrant of High over Pacific and expected to move more NW to WNW within 24-48hrs

COVERED (JULY 14-15 03:00UTC) 1 DAY
40.00 mm CATANDUANES RADAR 13.98 124.32
47.00 mm BORONGAN/SAMAR ISL 11.62 125.43

COVERED (JULY 13-15 00:03UTC) 3 DAYS
119.00 mm TANDAG/MINDANAO ISL 9.07 126.17
143.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
143.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

COVERED (JULY 9-15 03:00UTC) 7 DAYS
200.20 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
200.20 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33
322.27 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
380.86 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

06W/HUANING DISSIPATING; 91W EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA

IMAGES OF THE DAY
(AS OF 2P[05:30UTC] JULY 14, 2009)
CLICK IMAGES TO SEE CLOSE UP VIEW

06W WIND

SEVERE ALERT 91W WIND

SEVERE ALERT 91W CONVECTION
continues to wrapped along LLCC

06W CONVECTION
showing some dissipation due to land interaction

SHEAR

UPPER DIVERGENCE

RAIN RATE

VORTICES

another watchful broad moderate-strong vortices observedly approaching western Luzon

WIND

another developing circulation near western Luzon


AS OF 2P
MINIMAL DEPRESSION 06W (HUANING)

LOCATION: 26.0N, 119.0E (SE CHINA);
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT/46-64KPH;
SLP: 999.4MB;
MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 0.5C;
SHEAR: 20KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: DISSIPATING (15-20KT)

SEVERE ALERT 91W INVEST (JMA: MINIMAL DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 8.0N, 131.6E (APPROXIMATELY 690KM EAST OF MINDANAO);
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT/37-46KPH;
SLP: 1003.9MB;
MOVEMENT: WESTNORTHWEST AT 10KT/19KPH;
VORTICES: MODERATE-HIGH;
EYE TEMP: 0.5C;
SHEAR: 7.5KT;
UPPER DIVERGENCE: FAIR AT 10KT;
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12HRS: MINIMAL DEPRESSION 25KT

Another area of convection over South China sea will be monitored as vortices continuesly intensifying and wind circulation began develop over the area.

91w expected to develop into depression between 6-18hrs and threathens eastern Visayas and bicol region.

06w on the other hand expected to dissipate within 6-12hrs due to land interaction

COVERED (JULY 13-14 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
39.00 mm SURIGAO/MINDANAO IL 9.80 125.50
40.00 mm BUTUAN/MINDANAO ISL 8.93 125.52
52.00 mm CALAYAN ISLAND 19.27 121.47
101.00 mm TANDAG/MINDANAO ISL 9.07 126.17
125.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
125.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

COVERED (JULY 12-14 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
113.00 mm TANDAG/MINDANAO ISL 9.07 126.17
131.00 mm BISLIG/MINDANAO ISL 8.22 126.32
131.00 mm HINATUAN/MINDANAO 8.37 126.33

COVERED (JULY 8-14 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
322.27 mm VIGAN/LUZON ISLAND 17.57 120.38
380.86 mm LAOAG INTL(PH-ARMY) 18.18 120.53

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK