MARING NOW OVER VIETNAM, NANDO THREATHENS LUZON AS NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W DEVELOPED

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 12, 2009

LATEST IR IMAGERY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MINIMAL)

9-12-09 3P

LOCATION: 14.45N, 152.40E (660 KM E MARIANAS ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: 0MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -49.03C
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 999.8MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1001.8MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 997.6MB VMAX: 34KT/63KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.0MB VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112117Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SITTING UNDERNEATH THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 112330Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 112349Z TRMM IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY UTILIZES DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW (T1.5) AND KNES (T2.0)

TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE DATE LINE AND EXTENDS TOWARDS EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL-CHANNEL, UPPER-LEVEL OUFLOW. THE TUTT AND TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BETWEEN TAU'S 72 AND 120, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND CONTINUE ITS INTENSITY TREND AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE. THERE IS LIMITED INTENSITY GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT, SO THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR THE TRACK, THIS FORECAST IS SIDING WITH THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMF SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN THE NOGAPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A POLEWARD BIAS THIS SEASON*

SEVERE ALERT 91W (NANDO)

LOCATION: 16.1N, 125.9E (370KM E CASIGURAN, AURORA)
MSLP: 1004.7MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 12.9KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 25-30KT/46-56KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP :0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55KPH

DISCUSSION:

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 127.1E TO 19.4N 119.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112212Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112157Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SHOWED AN IMPROVED, STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEARTHE CENTER. STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK ARE SHOWN BUT ARE SUSPECT SINCE THEY ARE SURROUNDED BY RAINFLAGGED DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION (A8ME4) WEST OF THE CENTER AT 111900Z INDICATED 22 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD*

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W /MUJIGAE (MARING)


LOCATION: 20.01N, 105.45E (NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 13MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 11KM HIGH 175KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/A
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MLSP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP :N/A VMAX: N/A KPH

*SOURCE: NOAA

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