IMAGERY OF TYPHOON VAMCO
TYPHOON VAMCO STRUCTURE
EYE OF TYPHOON VAMCO
8-24-09 1P
LOCATION: 31.80N, 154.82E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 966MB
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 927.5MB VMAX:112.4KT/208KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.0KM HIGH 75KM RADIUS (DVORAK: +5.6C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH
TYPHOON VAMCO STRUCTURE
EYE OF TYPHOON VAMCO8-24-09 1P
LOCATION: 31.80N, 154.82E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 966MB
WINDSPEED: 80-95KT (148-176KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 927.5MB VMAX:112.4KT/208KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.0KM HIGH 75KM RADIUS (DVORAK: +5.6C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH
DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 11W HAS STARTED A NORTHWARD TRACK. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE RAGGED EYE, WITH A SLIGHT ELONGATION IN THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS BEEN BROKEN BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11W. THE EASTERN OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SEPARATION OF 11W AND THE TUTT CELL INCREASES. OVERALL, VAMCO REMAINS BUFFERED FROM SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS COMPACT SIZE AND THE LACK OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 11W, BUT HAS YET TO PENETRATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE APPROACHING 28 C.
TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TY 11W RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 11W WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 WITH ET COMPLETION BY TAU 36. DECREASING SST VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 11W AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36, THE REMNANT LOW WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 11W HAS STARTED A NORTHWARD TRACK. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE RAGGED EYE, WITH A SLIGHT ELONGATION IN THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS BEEN BROKEN BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11W. THE EASTERN OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SEPARATION OF 11W AND THE TUTT CELL INCREASES. OVERALL, VAMCO REMAINS BUFFERED FROM SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS COMPACT SIZE AND THE LACK OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE PERIMETER OF 11W, BUT HAS YET TO PENETRATE INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ARE APPROACHING 28 C.
TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE STEERING TY 11W RE-ORIENTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 11W WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 11W WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 24 WITH ET COMPLETION BY TAU 36. DECREASING SST VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 11W AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36, THE REMNANT LOW WILL MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
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