IMAGERY OF TYPHOON VAMCO
8-22-09 3P
TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)
LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH
DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATION
IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED AND IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF EAST-WEST ELONG-
ATION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 5.0 FROM PGTW AND 5.5 FROM KNES, INDICATING
APPROXIMATELY 95 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY, HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWARD FLOW IN THE PAST 06 HOURS, SHIFTING A MAJORITY OF
THE OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF VAMCO.
THROUGH TAU 36, VAMCO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. IN THE SHORT TERM, VAMCO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCES
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PRIOR TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER VAMCO. EASTWARD OUTFLOW WILL HELP TO PREVENT QUICK
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS VAMCO TRACKS NORTHWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING VAMCO TO MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND CAUSE IT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TRACK SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.
COVERED (AUG 21-22 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
41.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
43.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
47.00 mm MALABANG/MINDANAO 7.62 124.07
49.00 mm PAGADIAN/MINDANAO 7.83 123.47
COVERED (AUG 19-22 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
103.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
COVERED (AUG 15-22 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm and above rainfall
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
8-22-09 3P
TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)
LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH
DISCUSSION:TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)
LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH
8-22-09 3P
TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 2)
LOCATION: 24.69N, 156.35E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 938.1MB
WINDSPEED: 95-120KT (176-222KPH [DVORAK: 105KT/194KPH])
MOVEMENT: N 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C 13.2KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 95-105KT/176-103KPH
DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATION
IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED AND IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF EAST-WEST ELONG-
ATION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 5.0 FROM PGTW AND 5.5 FROM KNES, INDICATING
APPROXIMATELY 95 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY, HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWARD FLOW IN THE PAST 06 HOURS, SHIFTING A MAJORITY OF
THE OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF VAMCO.
THROUGH TAU 36, VAMCO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
MENTIONED IN PARA 2.A. IN THE SHORT TERM, VAMCO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCES
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PRIOR TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER VAMCO. EASTWARD OUTFLOW WILL HELP TO PREVENT QUICK
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS VAMCO TRACKS NORTHWARD. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING VAMCO TO MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND CAUSE IT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TRACK SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSITY.
COVERED (AUG 21-22 00:00UTC) 1 DAY
41.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
43.00 mm MALAYBALAY/MINDANAO 8.15 125.08
47.00 mm MALABANG/MINDANAO 7.62 124.07
49.00 mm PAGADIAN/MINDANAO 7.83 123.47
COVERED (AUG 19-22 00:00UTC) 3 DAYS
103.00 mm BAGUIO/LUZON ISLAND 16.42 120.60
COVERED (AUG 15-22 00:00UTC) 7 DAYS
no 200mm and above rainfall
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
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