TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 3)
LOCATION: 18.94N, 157.19E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 934.2MB
WINDSPEED: 105-135KT (194-250KPH [DVORAK: 110KT/204KPH])
MOVEMENT: N SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C 13.5KM HIGH 110KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 105-115KT/194-213KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
NEXT 24HRS: POSSIBLE 120KT/222KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AS THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY
11W HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL INTO THE
MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM
TY 11W INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS WELL
DEFINED AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
HELPED TO INCREASE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS REMAINED LOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE HELPED TO FUEL THE RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND GET
ABSORBED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD WESTWARD
INCREASING TRACK SPEED FOR TY 11W BEYOND TAU 48. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, CREATING A WEAKNESS
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING A TURN NORTHWARD. THE VWS AND SST WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN IN A DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HELPING TO ENHANCE AND SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF TY 11W THROUGH TAU 72
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE STR, CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW, HELPING TO SLOW THE WEAKENING OF TY 11W THROUGH
TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE TO BREAK IN
THE STR ALLOWING TY 11W TO RECURVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. INCREASED VWS, DECREASED SST VALUES, AND LESS FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ARGREE-
MENT WITH THE FORECAST REASONING. -BY NOAA
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
MSLP: 934.2MB
WINDSPEED: 105-135KT (194-250KPH [DVORAK: 110KT/204KPH])
MOVEMENT: N SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C 13.5KM HIGH 110KM RADIUS
NEXT 12HRS: 105-115KT/194-213KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
NEXT 24HRS: POSSIBLE 120KT/222KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AS THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY
11W HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL INTO THE
MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM
TY 11W INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS WELL
DEFINED AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
HELPED TO INCREASE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS REMAINED LOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE HELPED TO FUEL THE RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND GET
ABSORBED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD WESTWARD
INCREASING TRACK SPEED FOR TY 11W BEYOND TAU 48. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, CREATING A WEAKNESS
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING A TURN NORTHWARD. THE VWS AND SST WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN IN A DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HELPING TO ENHANCE AND SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF TY 11W THROUGH TAU 72
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE STR, CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW, HELPING TO SLOW THE WEAKENING OF TY 11W THROUGH
TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE TO BREAK IN
THE STR ALLOWING TY 11W TO RECURVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. INCREASED VWS, DECREASED SST VALUES, AND LESS FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ARGREE-
MENT WITH THE FORECAST REASONING. -BY NOAA
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment