TROPICAL CYCLONE NESAT 20W (PEDRING) 2011 SUMMARY

TROPICAL CYCLONE NESAT 20W (PEDRING) SUMMARY

THERMAL IR IMAGERY		THERMAL IR IMAGERY (2)
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds		TRACK

SUMMARY


MAXIMUM WIND: 105kt AND GUST 130kt
LOWEST PRESSURE: 950mb
ACE: 13.12
DVORAK MAX WIND: 129.6kt
DVORAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 929.3mb


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL CYCLONE MERBOK 12W 2011 SUMMARY

TROPICAL CYCLONE MERBOK 12W SUMMARY

THERMAL IR IMAGERY		THERMAL IR IMAGERY (2)
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds		TRACK

SUMMARY


MAXIMUM WIND: 80kt AND GUST 95kt
LOWEST PRESSURE: 980mb
ACE: 7.8025
DVORAK MAX WIND: 97.2kt
DVORAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 951.6mb


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC MEGI FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 90-105KT; 16W SHEARED; 17W; CATEGORY 2 GIRI; MINIMAL STORM RICHARD

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 22 2010 0942A (0142UTC)

STAGE: 10 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:105 GUST: 130	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 944
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 115.0	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 928.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -14.9	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -64.1
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 101	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 942.27	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 90

POSITION: 20.99N, 118.26E/415KM W OF BATANES GRP. (MWS: 194KPH-241KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (21.23N, 118.38E/400KM W OF BATANES)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W OCTOBER 22 2010 0952A (0152UTC)

STAGE: 2	CATEGORY: MINIMAL DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 25 GUST: 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1004
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 997.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 15.61	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -6.11
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 28	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1001.2	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 30

POSITION: 17.30N, 138.84E/425KM E OF PAR

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (17.30N, 138.12E/345KM E OF PAR)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W OCTOBER 22 2010 0957A (0157UTC)

STAGE: 3	CATEGORY: STRONG DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 30 GUST: 40	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1000
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 997.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -7.24	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -20.82
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 34	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1000.23	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 35

POSITION: 21.26N, 155.25E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (21.62N, 154.53E/OPEN PACIFIC)


OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE GIRI


NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM RICHARD



PROGNOSIS OF WEATHERGAINES:

TY megi continues to move more to the N for the past 6hrs in response over the competing influence of H over NE and strong trough to the north... both are likely to become a primary steering force but still compete which is dominant.. this now affect currently the status of TD 16W which is sandwich with this environment together with much stronger TD 17W... because of this 16W is most likely to have minimal strengthening within the next 2-3days but most likely to attain category 1 system after 2-3days... its movement will be depending on the strength of the said ridge and how will trough compete... so overall, 16W will generally move more to the W with little jog to either side (WSW-WNW) within the next 2days after that movement of 16W.


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MEGI MOVES MORE POLEWARD, 95W AND 98W NEXT POTENTIAL, TC 19L DEVELOP OFF CARIBBEAN

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 21 2010 0941A (0141UTC)

STAGE: 9 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:100 GUST: 125	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 952
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 117.4	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 925.8	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 5.35	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -73.03
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 106	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 939.57	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 90

POSITION: 19.61N, 117.61E/400KM W OF CALAYAN GRP (MWS: 185KPH-232KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (20.69N, 118.45E/395KM W OF BATANES)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TCFA 95W/PRE-16W OCTOBER 21 2010 1022A (0222UTC)

STAGE: 1	CATEGORY: TCFA	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 20 GUST: 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1004
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 47	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 989.6	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -23.32	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -42.45
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 31	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1001.1	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 25

POSITION: 16.68N, 142.89E/875KM E OF PAR

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (16.68N, 140.97E/663KM E OF PAR)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W OCTOBER 21 2010 1033A (0233UTC)

STAGE: 1	CATEGORY: TCFA	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 20 GUST: 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1007
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 34	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 997.6	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 12.74	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -28.88
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 29	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1003.87	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 25

POSITION: 19.29N, 159.63E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (19.89N, 158.43E/OPEN PACIFIC)




OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:


NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19L




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MEGI WEAKENS A BIT BUT THREATEN SOUTHERN CHINA; 95W LIKELY TO BECOME NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 21 2010 1245A (1645UTC)

STAGE: 10 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:110 GUST: 135	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 941
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 104.6	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 939.9	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 9.69	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -67.07
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 111	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 934.9	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 100

POSITION: 18.74n, 117.36E/350KM W OF ILOCOS SUR (MWS: 204KPH-250KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (19.22N, 117.36E/405KM W OF CALAYAN GRP)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TCFA 95W/PRE-16W OCTOBER 21 2010 0100A (1700UTC)

STAGE: 1	CATEGORY: TCFA	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 20 GUST: 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1007
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 24	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1007.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 22	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1007.0	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 25

POSITION: 16.5N, 145.6E/1175KM E OF PAR

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W OCTOBER 21 2010 0102A (1702UTC)

STAGE: 0	CATEGORY: WARNING	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 15 GUST: 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1010
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 25	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1007.3	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1008.65	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 15

POSITION: 15.0N,163.1E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MEGI SLOWLY MOVING, THREATENS HONGKONG THIS TIME

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 20 2010 1234A (1634UTC)

STAGE: 10 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:100 GUST: 125	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 948
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 102	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 943.2	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -23.32	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -68.43
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 103	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 946.0	RAINRATE (MM): +50	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 110

POSITION: 16.87N, 117.72E/295KM W OF ILOCOS SUR (MWS: 185KPH-232KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (16.51N, 116.82E/408KM W OF ILOCOS SUR)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W OCTOBER 20 2010 1243A (1643UTC)

STAGE: 0	CATEGORY: WARNING	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 15 GUST: 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1010
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 18	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1009.2	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 17	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1009.6	RAINRATE (MM): +5	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 15

POSITION: 9.7N, 139.7E/520KM E OF PAR


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON FANAPI THREATHENS TAIWAN; HURRICANE KARL NEARS MEXICO AS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, HURRICANE IGOR, HURRICANE JULIA

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FANAPI [LOCAL: INDAY] SEPTEMBER 17 2010 1006A (0206UTC)

STAGE: 1	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 1	INTENSITY(kt): MAX: 70 GUST: 85	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 970
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 72.2	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 970.5	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -68.2	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -60.6
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 73	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 970.1	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 80

POSITION: 22.61N, 127.79E/700KM E OF TAIWAN

OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IGOR

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE JULIA

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE KARL

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

FANAPI SHOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION; IGOR MAINTAIN CATEGORY 4, JULIA WEAKENS TO CATEGORY 3, KARL NOW OVER MEXICO

KARL WHILE OVER LAND

FANAPI

250M CLOSEUP OF IGOR

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FANAPI/12W/[LOCAL: INDAY] SEPTEMBER 16 2010 0948A (0148UTC)

STAGE: 6	CATEGORY: INTENSE STORM	INTENSITY(kt): MAX: 55 GUST: 70	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 989
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 53	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 986.3	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -70.8	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -63.9
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 53	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 988.9	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 65

POSITION: 21.40N, 127.49E/610KM ENE OF BASCO, BATANES

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W SEPTEMBER 16 2010 1000A (0200UTC)

STAGE: 0	CATEGORY: WARNING	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 15 GUST: 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1010
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 13	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1011.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 14	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1010.5	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 15

POSITION: 11.4N, 161.1E/ OPEN PACIFIC

OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM

NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN:

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IGOR

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIA

MINIMAL STORM KARL

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC EDZANI WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES COLDER SST

AS OF JAN 10 2010 330P PHIL TIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

CATEGORY 3 STAGE (LEVEL 10/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 100kt GUST: 125kt (185-232kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 948MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 157KT (219KPH) MSLP: 967.5MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 82.2KT (152PH) MSLP: 962.2MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -66.5C (CDO)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -65.9C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 85KT/157KPH/LEVEL 9

NOTE:
Although it re-intensify into 100kt, it is expected to weakens as it approaches colder SST.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC EDZANI INTENSIFIED AT 100KT IN 15HRS ONLY

AS OF 10P JAN 7 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI (07S)

CATEGORY 3 STAGE (LEVEL 10/15)

CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 100kt GUST: 125kt (185-232kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 948MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 91KT (169KPH) MSLP: 964.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 97.2KT (180PH) MSLP: 949.1MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -2.46C (EYE)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -74.08C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 115KT/213KPH/LEVEL 11

NOTE: CLICK NAME FOR UPDATED INFORMATIONS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDZANI RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FOR THE PAST 15HRS FROM 40KT AT 6A (PHIL TIME) TO 100KT AT 10P (PHIL TIME)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON NIDA STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 48HRS, 97W INVEST SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NOV 30 2009

WIND IMAGERY

THERMAL IR IMAGERY

STEERING WIND/PRESSURE

RAINFALL IMAGERY ANALYSIS

WESTERN PACIFIC IR IMAGERY

TYPHOON NIDA (26W)

TYPHOON (CATEGORY 3) STAGE
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 100kt GUST: 125kt (185-232kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 948MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 100KT (185KPH) MSLP: 946.3MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 99.6KT(184KPH) MSLP: 944.9B
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -12.5C (EYE)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -61.0C (+15MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 90KT/167KPH

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THEPAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTSWEAKENING CONVECTION OVER ALL QUADRANTS WITH A RAGGED 50NM EYE. TY 26W HAS, IN FACT, REMAINED QS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND IS LIKELY WEAKENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT (DAE) AND COLD WATER UPWELLING. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS INDICATE DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH A WEDGE OF DRY AIR (25-40MM) WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 292032Z SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICTS EYEWALL EROSION TO THE SOUTH AS DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED INTO THE CORE, AND A ROUND 50NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION DUE TO THE ERRATIC SLOW TRACK AND LARGE EYE, HOWEVER, 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS BOTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. THE 29/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH TY 26W POSITIONED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WEST WITH STRONG MIDLATITUDE (ZONAL) WESTERLIES NORTH OF 25N. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS HIGH ZONAL ACROSS ASIA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW (IN IMAGERY AS WELL). THE 30/00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ENTRENCHED NORTH AND WEST OF TY 26W.

A. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

B. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH TWODISTINCT CLUSTERS; NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR STILL FAVOR A RECURVATURESCENARIO AND TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARDRAPIDLY, WHILE JGSM, TC-LAPS, UKMO, ECMWF, AND GFS FAVOR A SLOWERWESTWARD TRACK WITH DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THESLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT WITH DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEMWEAKENS, STEERING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND TY 26WIS LIKELY TO TRACK WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLYFLOW. THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS BASED ON INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS DAE AND COOL WATER UPWELLING.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION AND THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK CYCLONICALLY AND GET ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING STORM NEAR OR NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W INVEST
SEVERE ALERT (12-24HRS FORMATION) STAGE
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 15kt GUST: 20kt (28-37kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1006MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 28KT (52KPH) MSLP: 1005.8MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 0KT(0KPH) MSLP: 0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -0C (N/A)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -0C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 0KT/0KPH

DISCUSSION:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 160.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF TROUGHING WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGHING. CURRENTLY THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SINGULAR CIRCULATION DEVELOPING, WITH MULTIPLE REGIONS OF TURNING IDENTIFIED IN THE IMAGERY. A 292329Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CHUUK TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGHING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGHING WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SPORADIC CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WEAKENING FURTHER MOVING MORE POLEWARD

IMAGERY OF THE DAY
SEPTEMBER 18, 2009

WIND STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

CLOUD STRUCTURE OF CHOI-WAN

EYE OF CHOI-WAN


TYPHOON CHOI-WAN/15W (CATEGORY 3)*

LOCATION: 23.77N, 138.78E
MSLP: 941MB
WINDSPEED: 110-140KT (204-259KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW 7KT/13KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +8C AT 13KM HIGH 50KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +4.49C
CONVECTION: LEVEL 4-5 (-54.11C)
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 941.2MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 941.1MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 927.1MB VMAX: 120KT/222KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

*Downgraded from super tyhoon status (category 4)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON VAMCO INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 3 NEARING AT CATEGORY 4

TYPHOON VAMCO/11W (CATEGORY 3)

LOCATION: 18.94N, 157.19E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 934.2MB
WINDSPEED: 105-135KT (194-250KPH [DVORAK: 110KT/204KPH])
MOVEMENT: N SLOWLY
RAINRATE: 12MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C 13.5KM HIGH 110KM RADIUS

NEXT 12HRS: 105-115KT/194-213KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED
NEXT 24HRS: POSSIBLE 120KT/222KPH MAXIMUM WINDSPEED

DISCUSSION:

TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AS THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TY
11W HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL INTO THE
MID-LEVEL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM
TY 11W INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH REMAINS WELL
DEFINED AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
HELPED TO INCREASE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS REMAINED LOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) HAVE HELPED TO FUEL THE RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD

TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND GET
ABSORBED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD WESTWARD
INCREASING TRACK SPEED FOR TY 11W BEYOND TAU 48. AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, CREATING A WEAKNESS
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING A TURN NORTHWARD. THE VWS AND SST WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN IN A DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HELPING TO ENHANCE AND SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF TY 11W THROUGH TAU 72

AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE STR, CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STR
AROUND TAU 72 ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW, HELPING TO SLOW THE WEAKENING OF TY 11W THROUGH
TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE TO BREAK IN
THE STR ALLOWING TY 11W TO RECURVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. INCREASED VWS, DECREASED SST VALUES, AND LESS FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ARGREE-
MENT WITH THE FORECAST REASONING. -BY NOAA

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