TC MEGI FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 90-105KT; 16W SHEARED; 17W; CATEGORY 2 GIRI; MINIMAL STORM RICHARD

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 22 2010 0942A (0142UTC)

STAGE: 10 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 3	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:105 GUST: 130	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 944
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 115.0	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 928.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -14.9	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -64.1
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 101	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 942.27	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 90

POSITION: 20.99N, 118.26E/415KM W OF BATANES GRP. (MWS: 194KPH-241KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (21.23N, 118.38E/400KM W OF BATANES)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W OCTOBER 22 2010 0952A (0152UTC)

STAGE: 2	CATEGORY: MINIMAL DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 25 GUST: 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1004
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 997.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 15.61	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -6.11
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 28	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1001.2	RAINRATE (MM): +25	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 30

POSITION: 17.30N, 138.84E/425KM E OF PAR

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (17.30N, 138.12E/345KM E OF PAR)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W OCTOBER 22 2010 0957A (0157UTC)

STAGE: 3	CATEGORY: STRONG DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 30 GUST: 40	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1000
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 997.0	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -7.24	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -20.82
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 34	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1000.23	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 35

POSITION: 21.26N, 155.25E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (21.62N, 154.53E/OPEN PACIFIC)


OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE GIRI


NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM RICHARD



PROGNOSIS OF WEATHERGAINES:

TY megi continues to move more to the N for the past 6hrs in response over the competing influence of H over NE and strong trough to the north... both are likely to become a primary steering force but still compete which is dominant.. this now affect currently the status of TD 16W which is sandwich with this environment together with much stronger TD 17W... because of this 16W is most likely to have minimal strengthening within the next 2-3days but most likely to attain category 1 system after 2-3days... its movement will be depending on the strength of the said ridge and how will trough compete... so overall, 16W will generally move more to the W with little jog to either side (WSW-WNW) within the next 2days after that movement of 16W.


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