TROPICAL CYCLONE NESAT 20W (PEDRING) 2011 SUMMARY

TROPICAL CYCLONE NESAT 20W (PEDRING) SUMMARY

THERMAL IR IMAGERY		THERMAL IR IMAGERY (2)
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds		TRACK

SUMMARY


MAXIMUM WIND: 105kt AND GUST 130kt
LOWEST PRESSURE: 950mb
ACE: 13.12
DVORAK MAX WIND: 129.6kt
DVORAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 929.3mb


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON MEGI THREATHENS CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 17 2010 1109P (1509UTC)

STAGE: 14 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 5	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:155 GUST: 190	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 907
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 152	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 884.7	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 20.4	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -78.6
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 150	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 893.8	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 165

POSITION: 17.87N, 124.59E/310KM E OF TUGUEGARAO, CAGAYAN (MWS: 287KPH-352KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (17.09N, 123.51E/110KM E OF COASTAL AREA OF CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA)


NOTE: IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO 160-165KT MAX WIND (EQUIVALENT TO 296-306KPH) BEFORE LANFALL OVER CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA.


3 SCENARIO (BASED ON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONDITION)


1. MOVE WSW-SW (ENTRY POINT: CAGAYAN-ISABELA. EXIT POINT: ILOCOS SUR-PANGASINAN)


2. STRONGER HIGH EXPECTED TO MAKE A SW TRACK BEFORE LANDFALL (ENTRY POINT: ISABELA, EXIT POINT: PANGASINAN-NORTHERN ZAMBALES)


3. STRONGER HIGH EXPECTED TO SLOW IT DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE SW-SSW BEFORE LANDFALL (ENTRY POINT: SOUTHERN ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA, EXIT POINT: NORTHERN ZAMBALES)




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

94W AND 95W INVEST OVER LUZON NOT A POTENTIAL YET

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W INVEST JULY 31 2010 0900P (1300UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	0
DESCRIPTION	WARNING
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	15	GUSTINESS	20
(kph)	28	GUSTINESS	37
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1010
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	n/a	MSLP (mb)	n/a
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-0°C	DESCRIPTION	center
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-0°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+2.5
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	15 kt	STAGE:	0

POSITION: 15.8N, 122.4E/90KM E OF BALER, AURORA

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W INVEST JULY 31 2010 0908P (1308UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	0
DESCRIPTION	WARNING
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	15	GUSTINESS	20
(kph)	28	GUSTINESS	37
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	1010
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	0	MSLP (mb)	0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-0°C	DESCRIPTION	N/A
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-0°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+15
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	15 kt	STAGE:	0

POSITION: 14.2N, 117.8E/370KM WEST OF METRO MANILA

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC CONSON THREATHENS NORTHERN QUEZON, MMLA LIKELY TO BE DIRECT HIT

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE CONSON (BASYANG) JULY 13 2010 0245P (0645UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	7
DESCRIPTION	TYPHOON 1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	70	GUSTINESS	85
(kph)	130	GUSTINESS	157
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	970
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	64	MSLP (mb)	994.6
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	72.2	MSLP (mb)	973.0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-75.3°C	DESCRIPTION	IRREGULAR CDO
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-72.1°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+35
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	75kt	STAGE:	8

POSITION: 190km E of Mmla/40km Northern Coast of Camarines Sur

POSSIBLE DIRECT HIT AND ESTIMATE STRENGTH: 

5-6P NORTHERN COAST OF CAMARINES NORTE 120-130KPH MAX WIND

8-10P INFANTA QUEZON 120-130KPH MAX

11P-1A RIZAL: 95-105KPH MAX

2A-3A NORTHERN MMLA-BULACAN AREA: 85-95KPH MAX

4-6A SOUTHERN PAMPANGA: 85KPH MAX

7-9A ZAMBALES: 85KPH MAX

10-11A EXITED TO SOUTH CHINA SEA: 75-85KPH MAX

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC CONSON LIKELY TO REACH CATEGORY 1 WITHIN 6HRS, THREATENS CENTRAL LUZON

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE CONSON (BASYANG) JULY 13 2010 0945P (1345UTC)

CATEGORY	VALUE
STAGE	6
DESCRIPTION	INTENSE STORM
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)	60	GUSTINESS	75
(kph)	111	GUSTINESS	139
CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb)	978
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS (kt)	62	MSLP (mb)	996.8
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT) (kt)	72.2	MSLP (mb)	973.0
CENTRAL REGION TEMP:	-72.0°C	DESCRIPTION	CDO W CLOUD FILLED EYE
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP:	-72.1°C	RAINRATE (IN mm/hr)	+35
FORECAST (NEXT 12HRS)	75kt	STAGE:	8

POSITION: 323KM ENE OF CATANDUANES/653KM E OF MMLA MOVING WEST TO WNW AT 22KPH

PAGASA STORM SIGNAL : CLICK HERE

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON MIRINAE EXPECTED TO HIT MMLA TOMORROW 8-10A

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1030A OCTOBER 30, 2009)

TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W/SANTI)

EYE

RAIN ANALYSIS

PRESSURE

STRUCTURE

WIND

TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W/SANTI)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 14.54N, 125.34E (435KM E METRO MANILA)
MSLP: 956MB
WINDSPEED: 90-110KT (167-204KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW TO W 12KT/22KPH
RAINFALL: +35-50MM/HR (+0.58-0.83MM/MIN)
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -78.48C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-80.98C)
VORTICES: 150
NEXT 12HRS: 95KT/176KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 980.08MB VMAX: 67KT/124KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.1MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.5MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 982.0MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 958.9MB VMAX: 90KT/167KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 988MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 986MB VMAX: 67KT/124KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 90KT/167KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 150-185KPH

EXPECTED LANDFALL: BASED ON CURRENT SPEED (SUBJECT TO CHANGES)

SOUTHERN POLILIO IS: 12-2A TOMORROW

QUEZON: 3A-4A TOMORROW

NORTHERN LAGUNA: 4A-5A

METRO MANILA : 5A-6A

SOUTHERN BATAAN: 8A-9A

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON MIRINAE SLOWED ITS INTENSITY, THREATHERNS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 2P OCTOBER 29, 2009)

TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W/SANTI)

FORECAST

EYE
RAINANALYSIS

PRESSURE/STEERING INFLUENCE
STRUCTURE
WIND

TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W/SANTI)

CATEGORY 2
LOCATION: 15.93N, 130.98E (900KM E CASIGURAN, AURORA)
MSLP: 956MB
WINDSPEED: 90-110KT (167-204KPH)
MOVEMENT: W to WSW 17KT/31KPH
RAINFALL: +25-35MM/HR (+0.42-0.58MM/MIN)
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -37.86C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-63.65C)
VORTICES: 150
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 978.53MB VMAX: 69KT/128KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 981.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 981.8MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 983.3MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 959.5MB VMAX: 93KT/163KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 987MB VMAX: 66KT/102KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 978MB VMAX: 73KT/115KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 93KT/157KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 150-185KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MIRINAE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED ENTERS PAR TONIGHT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 28, 2009)

TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W/SANTI)

FORECAST

PRESSURE/STEERING INFLUENCE

EYE

STRUCTURE

TYPHOON MIRINAE (SANTI/23W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 16.29N, 137.93E (1595KM E CASIGURAN, AURORA [295KM E PAR])
MSLP: 967MB
WINDSPEED: 75-90KT (139-167KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 15KT/28KPH
RAINFALL: +35-50MM/HR (+0.58-0.83MM/MIN)
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -63.66C (CDO)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-76.73C)
VORTICES: 200
NEXT 12HRS: 85-90KT/157-167KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 983.62MB VMAX: 63KT/117KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 981.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 981.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 981.6MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 984.9MB VMAX: 66KT/122KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 989MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 983MB VMAX: 70KT/130KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 75KT/139KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 85-100KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOP AS LUPIT BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 2P OCTOBER 26, 2009)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W/PRE-SANTI)

ECMWF TRACK

RAINFALL ANALYSIS
WIND

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W/PRE-SANTI)

MINIMAL STAGE

LOCATION: 12.53N, 150.0E (MICRONESIA ISLAND [1500KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1002MB
WINDSPEED: 25-35KT (46-65KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 10KT/19KPH
RAINFALL: +25-35MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -33.24C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-57.86C)
VORTICES: 50
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1002.1MB VMAX: 35KT/64KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1002.4MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1000.6MB VMAX: 29KT/54KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1003.5MB VMAX: 39KT/72KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 1002MB VMAX: 42KT/78KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 1002MB VMAX: 38KT/70KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55KPH

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W/RAMIL)

MINIMAL STAGE

LOCATION: 29.15N, 135.69E (SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN)
MSLP: 993MB
WINDSPEED: 40-50KT (74-93KPH)
MOVEMENT: NE 18KT/33KPH
RAINRATE: +2.5MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +14.07C (SHEARED)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: DRIZZLE (+4.54C)
VORTICES: 200
NEXT 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 996.05MB VMAX: 40KT/74KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 1000.9MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 1001.7MB VMAX: 25KT/46KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 1001.5MB VMAX: 25KT/46KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 994.2MB VMAX: 53KT/98KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 988MB VMAX: 58KT/107KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 990MB VMAX: 53KT/98KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 40KT/74KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: N/AKPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

95W INVEST WILL DEVELOP, EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MMLA BY SAT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 4P OCTOBER 25, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) INFORMATION AND NEW FORECAST FOR NEW EXPECTED TC

FORECAST TRACK OF POSSIBLE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE (95W INVEST)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY

VORTICITY

RAINFALL ANALYSIS 95W INVEST

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

INTENSE STORM
LOCATION: 25.61N, 129.04E (105KM SE RYUKU IS)
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: NE 11KT/20KPH
RAINRATE: +20MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -20.18C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: MODERATE (-33.89C)
VORTICES: 200
NEXT 12HRS: 50-55KT/93-102KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 985.82MB VMAX: 53KT/98KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 991.8MB VMAX: 43KT/80KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 990.8MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 995.4MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 984.9MB VMAX: 58KT/107KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 975MB VMAX: 72KT/133KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 977MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/111KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: N/AKPH


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT STAGE
LOCATION: 11.4N, 153.8E (MICRONESIA ISLAND [1880KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (0C)
VORTICES: 0
NEXT 12HRS: 20-25KT/37-46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1006.5MB VMAX: 31KT/57KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1006.5MB VMAX: 31KT/57KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE:

95w invest which is expected to develop within this week is heading towards Luzon (near Metro manila) by this week based on ECMWF model

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT THREATHENS LUZON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 2P OCTOBER 19, 2009)

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

WIND
VORTICITY AND WATER VAPOR
FORECAST TRACK
STRUCTURE
RAIN ANALYSIS
PRESSURE AND EXPLANATION
EYE OF RAMIL
POSITION BASED ON ECMWF MODEL 12:00UTC OCTOBER 21
POSITION BASED ON ECMWF MODEL 12:00UTC OCTOBER 22

AS OF 130P

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 4

LOCATION: 19.00N, 133.28E (1130KM E CALAYAN IS.)
MSLP: 922MB
WINDSPEED: 135-165KT (250-306KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW TO W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +3.08C (EYE)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-73.73C)
VORTICES: 300
NEXT 12HRS: 135-140KT/250-259KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 913.32MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 906.9MB VMAX: 136KT/252KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 930MB VMAX: 126KT/233KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 925MB VMAX: 122KT/226KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 135KT/257KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT

LOCATION: 16.6N, 110.3E (230KM E NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1003.2MB VMAX: 22KT/41KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP: 1003.5MB VMAX: 23KT/43KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE: POSSIBLE SCENARIO WILL BE SEEN AT PRESSURE IMAGE PLEASE CLICK TO SEE HIGHER RESOLUTION.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 4... LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 TODAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 01, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)





SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)


CATEGORY 4 (5KT AWAY TO BECOME CATEGORY 5)
LOCATION: 12.27N, 129.89E (440KM E SAMAR)
MSLP: 926MB
WINDSPEED: 130-160KT (241-296KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C AT 13KM HIGH 95KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -37.45C (EYE)
CONVECTION: STRONG-SEVERE (-69.00C)
NEXT 12HRS: 140-145KT/259-269KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 934.2MB VMAX: 111KT/206KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 917.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 964.9MB VMAX: 82KT/152KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 920.2MB VMAX: 125KT/232KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 937.2MB VMAX: 107KT/198KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 175-225KPH



TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 13.58N, 152.74E (750KM ESE OF SOUTHERN GUAM [1770KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 974MB
WINDSPEED: 65-80KT (120-148KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 6KT/11KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 12.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -78.02C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.78C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-80KT/139-148KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 985.0MB VMAX: 58KT/108KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.9MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 988.2MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

NOTE:

There are 2 scenario over the movement of typhoon parma;

1. The high pressure ridge over NE china and Japan will strengthen and eventually build-up to become a dominant steering force for typhoon parma and moves more wnw to w towards central Luzon (Aurora-Isabela area or Aurora-Quezon area).

2. The high pressure area NE of China moves more Westward and allow a poleward channel over SW part of High over Japan to become a primary steering force and eventually allow a more NW movement towards Northern Luzon (northern tip of Cagayan or just 100km away from land) before high over China buildup and pushes typhoon parma more to the North.

Any of this is possible but as of the moment the 1st scenario dominates more.. Let us pray coz this typhoon is very dangerous as it expect to become a CATEGORY 5 with windspeed of 145-150kt (269-278kph) maximum with gust of up to 180kt (333kph).
Imagine what destruction it will create to us after the devastation of tropical storm ketsana (Ondoy)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK