LUPIT STILL WEAKENING, SLOWLY MOVING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 23, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

EYE
RAIN ANALYSIS
STRUCTURE
WIND

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

INTENSE STAGE

LOCATION: 18.63N, 123.12E (110KM ENE APARRI, CAGAYAN)
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: W 3KT/6KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-68.68C)
VORTICES: 250
NEXT 12HRS: 60-65KT/111-120KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 972.95MB VMAX: 71KT/132KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 965.3MB VMAX: 80KT/148KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 965.3MB VMAX: 80KT/148KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 982.5MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 978.7MB VMAX: 67KT/124KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/120KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 120-150KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON LUPIT SLOWED DOWN BEGINNING ITS POLEWARD MOVEMENT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 230P OCTOBER 22, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

72-120HR FORECAST TRACK

PRESSURE
RAIN ANALYSIS
VORTICITY AND VAPOR IMAGERY

WIND

OCT 29-31 ECMWF FORECAST FOR NEW DISTURBANCE

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 1

LOCATION: 18.80N, 124.56E (255KM E CALAYAN GROUP)
MSLP: 963MB
WINDSPEED: 80-100KT (148-185KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW 5KT/9KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -61.07C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-58.34C)
VORTICES: 200
NEXT 12HRS: 80-85KT/148-157KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 969.2MB VMAX: 75KT/139KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.5MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 982.4MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 982.4MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 957.1MB VMAX: 87KT/161KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 954MB VMAX: 98KT/181KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 957MB VMAX: 88KT/163KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 80KT/148KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 160-195KPH

NOTE:

Lupit expected to moves more poleward after 72 hours as the said ridge likely to break and thus allow poleward channel to developed over to the NE quandrant of Lupit. This is the reason why Lupit slowly moving and eventually remain stationary for the next 24-48hrs.

Another tropical cyclone likely to develop from oct 29-31 based on ECMWF model.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

LUPIT LIKELY TO SPARE NORTHERN LUZON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 930P OCTOBER 21, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 19.49N, 125.52E (320KM ESE BASCO, BATANES)
MSLP: 963MB
WINDSPEED: 80-100KT (148-185KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW 7KT/13KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -19.06C (EYE)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-66.55C)
VORTICES: 250
NEXT 12HRS: 80-90KT/148-167KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 967.2MB VMAX: 79KT/146KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.2MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 982.3MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 983.8MB VMAX: 57KT/117KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 963.0MB VMAX: 86KT/170KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 944MB VMAX: 112KT/189KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 948MB VMAX: 99KT/170KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 80KT/148KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

NOTE: Lupit expected to spare Cagayan and the rest of northern Luzon as low pressure trough expected to weakens the high pressure ridge over North and thus again expected to slow down lupit before moving pole ward. This is based on latest models including ECMWF which shows a more poleward movement beginning saturday and sunday.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON LUPIT LIKELY TO SPARE CAGAYAN, BATANES-TAIWAN AREA MOSTLY TO BE HIT

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 21, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

OCTOBER 23, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 24, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 25, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 26, 2009 12:00UTC

OCTOBER 27, 2009 12:00UTC

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 19.99N, 126.76E (475KM ESE BASCO, BATANES)

MSLP: 963MB

WINDSPEED: 80-100KT (148-185KPH)

MOVEMENT: WSW 9KT/17KPH

RAINRATE: +30MM/HR

CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)

DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY (-66.95C)

VORTICES: 250

NEXT 12HRS: 80-90KT/148-167KPH

DVORAK

MSLP : 967.08MB VMAX: 78KT/144KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:

(JTWC): MSLP : 982.1MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH

(RSMC): MSLP : 982.0MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH

(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.8MB VMAX: 63KT/117KPH

(RAMMB-CIRA): 954.6MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH

(AMSU): MSLP: 951MB VMAX: 102KT/189KPH

(SATCON): MSLP: 954MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH

(MIMIC): VMAX: 80KT/148KPH

(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

NOTE: Based on new forecast by ECMWF shows that lupit is most likely to spare Cagayan region by direct hit rather a possible weakness of high over north of it will eventually shift the system more westward towards Batanes-Taiwan area. However, stormy weather still expected over those areas over northern luzon by friday-saturday. It is more likely to weakens further as drier air entraping to its circulation.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON LUPIT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES MORE WSW DIRECTION

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 2P OCTOBER 20, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

WIND

STRUCTURE

RAIN ANALYSIS

PRESSURE

EYE

FORECAST OCT 22, 2009 12:00UTC

FORECAST OCT 23, 2009 12:00UTC

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 20.24N, 129.66E (765KM E BASCO, BATANES)
MSLP: 952MB
WINDSPEED: 95-115KT (176-213KPH)
MOVEMENT: W TO WSW 8KT/15KPH
RAINRATE: +30-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -72.83C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-INTENSE (-70.12C)
VORTICES: 300
NEXT 12HRS: 120-125KT/222-232KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 950.08MB VMAX: 96KT/177KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 960.0MB VMAX: 85KT/157KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 957.6MB VMAX: 87KT/162KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 955.1MB VMAX: 90KT/167KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 929.8MB VMAX: 105KT/194KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 948MB VMAX: 106KT/196KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 950MB VMAX: 100KT/185KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 95KT/176KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 195-230KPH

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W INVEST

ALERT

LOCATION: 17.5N, 110.2E (180KM ESE HAINAN, CHINA)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15-20KT (28-37KPH)
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: +30MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC
CONVECTION: HEAVY (N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP: 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT THREATHENS LUZON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 2P OCTOBER 19, 2009)

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

WIND
VORTICITY AND WATER VAPOR
FORECAST TRACK
STRUCTURE
RAIN ANALYSIS
PRESSURE AND EXPLANATION
EYE OF RAMIL
POSITION BASED ON ECMWF MODEL 12:00UTC OCTOBER 21
POSITION BASED ON ECMWF MODEL 12:00UTC OCTOBER 22

AS OF 130P

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 4

LOCATION: 19.00N, 133.28E (1130KM E CALAYAN IS.)
MSLP: 922MB
WINDSPEED: 135-165KT (250-306KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW TO W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +3.08C (EYE)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-73.73C)
VORTICES: 300
NEXT 12HRS: 135-140KT/250-259KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 913.32MB VMAX: 132KT/244KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 906.0MB VMAX: 135KT/250KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 906.9MB VMAX: 136KT/252KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 930MB VMAX: 126KT/233KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 925MB VMAX: 122KT/226KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 135KT/257KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 175-210KPH

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT

LOCATION: 16.6N, 110.3E (230KM E NORTHERN VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1003.2MB VMAX: 22KT/41KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP: 1003.5MB VMAX: 23KT/43KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE: POSSIBLE SCENARIO WILL BE SEEN AT PRESSURE IMAGE PLEASE CLICK TO SEE HIGHER RESOLUTION.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON LUPIT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY SLOWED DOWN

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 17, 2009)

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

STEERING FORCE

VORTICES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACT

RAINFALL ANALYSIS

EYE AND EYEWALL

AS OF 1P

TYPHOON LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 15.35N, 132.66E (1120KM E BALER, QUEZON)
MSLP: 959MB
WINDSPEED: 85-105KT (157-194KPH)
MOVEMENT: NW 9KT/17KPH
RAINRATE: +40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -76.66C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.19C)
NEXT 12HRS: 95-100KT/176-185KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 970.47MB VMAX: 79KT/145KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 981.9MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.5MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 982.1MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 966.3MB VMAX: 90KT/167KPH
(AMSU): MSLP: 953MB VMAX: 104KT/193KPH
(SATCON): MSLP: 956MB VMAX: 96KT/178KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 86KT/159KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 130-160KPH

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W INVEST

SEVERE ALERT STAGE (JMA: MINIMAL DEPRESSION)

LOCATION: 13N, 111.9E (290KM E VIETNAM)
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 20-25KT (37-46KPH)
MOVEMENT: WSW VERY SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +40MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC
CONVECTION: SEVERE (N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 25KT/46KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1004.0MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP: 1004.0MB VMAX: 27KT/50KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL) NEARS CATEGORY 1 STAGE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 16, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

VORTICES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACT
RAIN ANALYSIS
CLOSEUP IMAGES

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

AS OF 1P

INTENSE STAGE

LOCATION: 13.35N, 136.40E (1190KM E BICOL REGION[140KM E PAR])
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-73.43C)
NEXT 12HRS: 70-75KT/130-139KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 994.6MB VMAX: 43KT/79KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.5MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 991.2MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/111KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 75-90KPH

NOTE:

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN TEMPORARILY ALLOWS LUPIT (RAMIL) TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVES MORE NW WARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24HRS (OCTOBER 17) HOWEVER, A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXTEND TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THUS BECOME A PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR LUPIT (RAMIL) CAUSING IT TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACT TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 AT MAXIMUM OF 125-130KT (232-241KPH) WINDS PRIOR ITS LANDFALL BY OCTOBER 22-23 DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, HIGH SST, GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THAT TIME AIDED BY A TUTT TO THE NE OF LUPIT (RAMIL). IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PHIL. AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN 8-9P TODAY.

THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL NUMERICAL MODELS SEEN ON MAIN WEB PAGE. (PLEASE SEE LUPIT OTHER CLICK LINK).

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK