TROPICAL CYCLONE GUCHOL 05W 2012

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUCHOL 05W [PRE-BUTCHOY] (FOR LATEST POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY)

REAL TIME THUNDERSTORM/PRECIPITATION IMAGERY (CLICK TO ZOOM IN, CTRL CLICK TO ZOOM OUT) -30°C: +2.5mm; -50°C: +5mm; -70°C: +15mm; -85°C: +25mm -95°C: +35mm; -110°C: +50mm

REAL TIME THERMAL IR IMAGERY (UPDATED EVERY 30 MINUTES)

REAL TIME VISIBLE (UPDATED EVERY 30 MINUTES)

REAL TIME WIND AND IR IMAGERY	REAL TIME DVORAK IMAGERY CLICK IMAGERY TO SEE 30MIN UPDATE OF POSITION, INTENSITY AND OTHER INFORMATION (IN TEXT)
REAL TIME RBTOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGERY TO ANIMATE)	WUNDERGROUND REAL TIME IMAGERY

FORECAST TRACK

>TROPICAL STORM RISK

CLOSE UP RELATIVE VORTICITY (CLICK TO VIEW LARGER)

CLOSE UP WIND SHEAR AND DIRECTION (CLICK TO VIEW LARGER)

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY (WITH SUNSHINE ONLY)

VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY (250M ZOOOM)

STEERING WIND ANALYSIS (CLICK TO SEE CLOSEUP)

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNAL NO: CLICK HERE

CLICK LINKS BELOW FOR OTHER REAL TIME (MOST UPDATED) INFORMATIONS

RAMMB-CIRA REAL TIME SITESATELLITE FIXJTWC WARNINGTRACK FILE TEXTNRL SSMI RAINRATENRL REAL TIME INFO SITEOTHER MODEL TRACKEUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF)TRACK, RAINFALL, CURRENT INTENSITYDISCUSSION/PROGNOSIS30MIN JTWC REAL TIME ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES30MIN RSMC REAL TIME ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUESTROPICAL STORM RISKSATCON INFOTYPHOON 2000 DISCUSSIONPAGASAUW-CIMSS IMAGERYMIMIC WIND AND IR---------- NO IMAGERY AND OTHER SITE ----------

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

MEGI NOW A CATEGORY 2 UNDERGOING RI... TS PAULA; 93W; 97B

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W OCTOBER 15 2010 1044A (0244UTC)

STAGE: 9 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 2	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:90 GUST: 110	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 956
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 72	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 973.1	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -72.4	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -74.2
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 82	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 963.73	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 100

POSITION: 14.06N, 136.47E/165KM E PAR OR 1360KM E OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES (MWS: 167KPH-204KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT SPEED AND POSITION (14.54N, 135.63E)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W INVEST OCTOBER 15 2010 1056A (0256UTC)

STAGE: 0 OF 15	CATEGORY: WARNING	INTENSITY (kt): MAX 15 GUST 20	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1010
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 27	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1005.1	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): N/A	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): N/A
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN in kt): 21	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN in mb): 1007.5	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 15kt

POSITION: 14.5N, 109.9E/100KM E OF QUANG NGAL, VIETNAM




OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM


NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: STRONG TROPICAL STORM PAULA


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: STRONG DEPRESSION 97B




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL) NEARS CATEGORY 1 STAGE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 16, 2009)

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W) IMAGERY

VORTICES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRACT
RAIN ANALYSIS
CLOSEUP IMAGES

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (RAMIL/22W)

AS OF 1P

INTENSE STAGE

LOCATION: 13.35N, 136.40E (1190KM E BICOL REGION[140KM E PAR])
MSLP: 978MB
WINDSPEED: 60-75KT (111-139KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -64.33C (CENTER)
DEEPEST CONVECTION: SEVERE-INTENSE (-73.43C)
NEXT 12HRS: 70-75KT/130-139KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 994.6MB VMAX: 43KT/79KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 982.5MB VMAX: 61KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.7MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 991.2MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 60KT/111KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 75-90KPH

NOTE:

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN TEMPORARILY ALLOWS LUPIT (RAMIL) TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVES MORE NW WARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24HRS (OCTOBER 17) HOWEVER, A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXTEND TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN AND THUS BECOME A PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR LUPIT (RAMIL) CAUSING IT TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACT TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON. IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 AT MAXIMUM OF 125-130KT (232-241KPH) WINDS PRIOR ITS LANDFALL BY OCTOBER 22-23 DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, HIGH SST, GOOD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THAT TIME AIDED BY A TUTT TO THE NE OF LUPIT (RAMIL). IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PHIL. AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BETWEEN 8-9P TODAY.

THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL NUMERICAL MODELS SEEN ON MAIN WEB PAGE. (PLEASE SEE LUPIT OTHER CLICK LINK).

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK