TROPICAL CYCLONE BANYAN 23W (RAMON) 2011 SUMMARY

TROPICAL CYCLONE BANYAN 23W [RAMON] SUMMARY

THERMAL IR IMAGERY		THERMAL IR IMAGERY (2)
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds		TRACK

SUMMARY


MAXIMUM WIND: 35kt AND GUST 45kt
LOWEST PRESSURE: 1002mb
ACE: 0.3675
DVORAK MAX WIND: 55.0kt
DVORAK SEA LEVEL PRESSURE: 994.6mb


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC CHABA BEGINS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION, 92S NEXT TC, TC SHARY, TC TOMAS,

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 32.7N 138.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN






TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 92S


WTXS21 PGTW 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 97.4E TO 10.5S 94.9E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE 
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE 
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292130Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 96.7E.  THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 
97.1E IS NOW LOCATED AT 7.9S 96.7E APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291917Z 
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
PARTIAL 291539Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED 
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
302200Z.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S


TPXS11 PGTW 300300 COR


A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (SW OF SUMATRA)


B. 30/0230Z


C. 15.0S


D. 73.7E


E. FOUR/MET7


F. N/A


G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE




TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARY


deep convection has persisted this evening and has expanded a bit
over the southeast through northeast portion of the cyclone. 
Earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
within this particular area were 73 kt at flight level...and 60 kt
based on an SFMR wind estimation.  Consequently...the initial
intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory.  Shary is moving
within a region of increasing southerly shear...now 20-30 kt...and
is forecast to increase further through the period.  The shear
along with cooler sea surface temperatures should induce a
weakening trend during the next 24 hours.  Satellite imagery
indicates that a baroclinic system is rapidly approaching
Bermuda...and interaction with Shary should begin later tonight. 
The FSU cyclone phase evolution diagrams for the GFS/UKMET/CMC
unanimously agree that Shary will complete the transition to an
extratropical low within 24 hours...and this is indicated in the
official forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward...050/18.  This
general motion is expected to continue within the deep southwesterly
tropospheric flow during the next 24 hours as the system makes its
transition to a non-tropical low.  The life expectancy of
Post-tropical Shary should be short...as all of the large-scale
models suggest that the cyclone will become absorbed by the frontal
zone in 36 hours.  The official forecast is based on a blend of the
GFS...ECMWF...and the UKMET...and is adjusted to the right of the
previous advisory






TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS


as mentioned in the 0000 UTC special advisory...the Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 61
kt and SFMR measurements between 50-55 kt...albeit in some heavy
rain...on the last pass through the center.  Deep convection has
continued to increase since that time with a prominent band forming
over the western semicircle...so the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt on this advisory.

Tomas is benefiting from excellent upper-level outflow in almost all
quadrants...and the cyclone appears as though it is going through a
period of rapid intensification.  SHIPS RI guidance is indicating
at least a 40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity over
the next 24 hours...and it is likely that Tomas will reach
hurricane strength within the next 12-24 hours.  After 24
hours...nearly all the intensity guidance shows the intensity
leveling off or only increasing more modestly through 120 hours.
However...global model fields show the environment over the
Caribbean becoming favorable for continued intensification...and it
is not obvious at this point what might limit that trend.  The
official forecast continues to show steady strengthening to
category 3 strength by day 4 and remains Above All the reliable
intensity models.

The center appeared to have reformed to the north earlier this
evening...and the initial motion is estimated at 300/14.  The new
official track forecast remains largely unchanged from the
previous forecast...although the first 12-24 hours of the track
forecast have been shifted a little to the north as an artifact of
the reformation of the center.  The GFS...ECMWF...and GFDL all
support a relatively strong mid-level ridge north of the Greater
Antilles and show Tomas moving generally westward across the
south-central Caribbean Sea.  These are usually the most
trustworthy of the dynamical models...and the official forecast
favors their scenario...lying just to the south of the model
consensus.



JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC CHABA WEAKENS HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN COAST OF TOKYO, NEW TC NAMED SHARY DEVELOPED ALONG ATLANTIC, 01S WEAKENS

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 131.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
281646Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
DECEASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITHIN 12 HOURS, TY CHABA IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND FULLY TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (FINAL ADVISORY)


TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARY (20L)


AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST.  SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.






JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA NOW A CATEGORY 4, 01S STRUGGLE

TYPHOON CHABA PROGNOSIS

REMARKS:

272100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 128.4E.

TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH

OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS AN 18 NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,

AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. DUAL

OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE

TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING

POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE

TO THE EAST. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED

WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE

NEXT 12 HOURS, DUE TO SUSTAINED DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. AROUND TAU 24

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR JET SOUTH OF

JAPAN AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO

ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGINS

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A

BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH OF JAPAN. JUST AFTER TAU 48, TY

16W SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE

REACHING MAINLAND JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

NNNN

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S PRONOSIS

272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 83.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

INDICATES AN OVERALL WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED

WITH TC 01S. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE HAVE INDICATED A

WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CURRENTLY SUPPORT A 25 TO

35 KNOT SYSTEM. A 271621Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG

THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS

ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING

ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING

RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS

THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) IMPROVES

TO THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN TO THE WEST ONCE A MID-LEVEL

TROUGH PASSES DOWNSTREAM ALLOWING THE STEERING RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN

TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND

DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF 15S WILL ULTIMATELY

MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND LEAD TO

DISSIPATION OF TC 01S AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//

NNNN

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

CLOSE UP IMAGERY BY TERRA AT STY MEGI/JUAN

THERMAL IR IMAGERY

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

CLOSEUP SHOT BY TERRA MODIS ON OCTOBER 18 2010 AT 415GMT, 30MINUTES PRIOR LANDFALL

HERE IS THE COMPLETE LOOP BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER LASHING NORTHERN LUZON:

OCTOBER 17-19, 2010: LOOP


by:NexSat/NPOESS


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA STEADILY INTENSIFYING, TC 01S

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 127.4E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS AIDED 
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND AN OFF-HOUR 26/1930Z PGTW ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. 
A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS FORCED 
THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, 
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER CPA TO OKINAWA. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS NOW 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAKE A 
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. CHABA IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY 
AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS 
FAR BUT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ONCE THE STORM CROSSES 
25 NORTH, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH
TAU 48 BUT THE MAJORITY STEER THE SYSTEM EAST OF OKINAWA. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S


REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS 
RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD 
BACK OVER THE CENTER, ELEVATING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE 
TO A T2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. A 260407Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC 
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, A 261112Z SSMI 37H 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
DISTINCT LLCC. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS VENTING TO THE WEST AND 
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH ALSO 
APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOUTS OF ELEVATED VWS. LESS THAN SIX HOURS 
AGO THE LLCC HAD BEEN FULLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS VWS GRADUALLY EASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH 
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN 
TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 48. VWS IS AGAIN 
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
AND BEGIN TO TAPER NEAR 20S. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF 
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 252251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTXS21 PGTW 252300)MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 9 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN



JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TC CHABA STEADILY INTENSIFYING; FINAL TC RICHARD, 1ST SOUTH HEMI TC

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA PROGNOSIS


WDPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 375 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEARLY ALL THE DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAD 
DISSIPATED AROUND 0600Z, BUT IT HAS SINCE REBUILT OVER THE CENTER. A 
STRONG COLD SURGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE A MODIFIED POLEWARD AIRMASS 
EQUATORWARD. THIS SURGE APPEARS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TY 
THUS FAR, DESPITE NORTHEASTERLIES BEGINNING TO WEAKLY FILTER IN 
BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. DUAL EXHAUST MECHANISMS PERSIST AND 
ARE POSITIONED TO AID INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
FLUCTUATES BETWEEN LOW AND MODERATE, WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING 
NEARLY 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTH- 
WESTERLIES. A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE 
EAST HAS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE THE TY NORTHWEST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN ALTERED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER 
TAUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER CONSENSUS AND A DELAYED TURN TO THE 
NORTH. 
   B. THE RIDGE EXTENSION WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 
HOURS AND WILL ALLOW THE TY TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH. 500 MB 
HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO 
RETREAT TO THE EAST. AS CHABA TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE FLATTENED 
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE, IT WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY, BUT AT A SLOWER RATE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DEEP MID-
LATITUDES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHAT IMPACT THE COLD SURGE WILL HAVE 
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST, BUT CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
UNSCATHED. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS SHOW A WELL-ISOLATED 
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO PULL IN AIR FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. AROUND 
TAU 48 THE TY WILL SIT JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA NEAR 90 KNOTS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST 2 DAYS SHOWS A GENERAL SLOW POLEWARD 
TREND. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TURN NORTH-NOTHWEST FROM 
NORTHWEST THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST 
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO 
SHIFTED WEST.
   C. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AROUND TAU 72 AS IT 
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
WILL ALSO BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A 
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY 
TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120, JUST NORTH OF 
TOKYO. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND OVER HONSHU TO 
ACCOUNT FOR A CONSENSUS THAT HAS WALKED WEST. GIVEN THE WESTERLIES 
ALOFT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE ANY FARTHER WEST 
OVER JAPAN THAN ALREADY FORECAST, DESPITE THE GFDN SOLUTION THAT 
WANTS TO PULL THE SYSTEM INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. GFS AND ECMWF, 
THOUGH SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, RESOLVE FORECAST 
TRACKS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES, 
AND HAVE THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SKIRTING 
HONSHU.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S


261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS 
RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD 
BACK OVER THE CENTER, ELEVATING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE 
TO A T2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. A 260407Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC 
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, A 261112Z SSMI 37H 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
DISTINCT LLCC. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS VENTING TO THE WEST AND 
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH ALSO 
APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOUTS OF ELEVATED VWS. LESS THAN SIX HOURS 
AGO THE LLCC HAD BEEN FULLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS VWS GRADUALLY EASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH 
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN 
TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 48. VWS IS AGAIN 
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
AND BEGIN TO TAPER NEAR 20S. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF 
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 252251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTXS21 PGTW 252300)MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 9 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD


261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 92.9W.  135NM WNW OF CAMPECHE, MEXICO. 
12FT SEAS: NONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED BY NAVMARFCSTCEN.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA; TC RICHARD; TCFA 91S

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING 
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MARKEDLY IMPROVED 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH 
OF THE INTENSIFICATION. A 252132Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A 
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE AND INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING. INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN COLD TOPS OVER 
THE LLCC DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED 
ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 77 
KNOTS FROM RJTD. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WELL 
DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 HAVE BEEN INCREASED.
   B. TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY POLEWARD TRACK 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48.
THE STORM WILL SUSTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN PROVIDES FURTHER ENHANCEMENT 
TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A VIGOROUS 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL UNTIL IT PASSES EAST OF THE STORM. THIS 
WILL INDUCE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS TY 16W ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GFDN, FORMERLY AN OUTLIER TO THE EXTREME 
WEST, HAS NOW JOINED THE PACK AND IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
OF OKINAWA.
   C. A RECENT COLD SURGE OVER WESTPAC HAS BROUGHT CONTINENTAL POLAR 
AIR DEEP INTO THE THEATER, THEREFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION WILL 
BEGIN BEFORE THE STORM REACHES 30N. TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO 
RECURVE AND TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU AFTER TAU 72 WHILE 
UNDERGOING A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE RECURVATURE WILL 
NOT BE A DRAMATIC TURN AND ACCELERATION DUE TO A ZONAL ORIENTATION 
OF THE POLAR FRONT JET DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ZONAL JET, HOWEVER, 
WILL PRODUCE TREMENDOUS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 NORTH 
LATITUDE. THEREFORE TYPHOON CHABA IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID 
DE-INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS PERIOD OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
DURING THE SAME PERIOD,THE STORM WILL BE RIDING OVER A REGION OF 
RAPIDLY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS AND EGRR BOTH STEER 
THE STORM OVER SHIKOKU AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, PUNCHING IT 
THROUGH A 100 KNOT POLAR FRONT JET AND OVER THE JAPANESE ALPS. THIS 
SOLUTION IS INCOHERENT AND IS DISREGARDED. BECAUSE THE CONSENSUS 
INCLUDES BOTH NOGAPS AND EGRR, THE FORECAST IS TO THE 
RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER 
BUT VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE BEST HANDLING OF THE 
SYSTEM'S TRACK THUS FAR.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 91S


WTXS21 PGTW 252300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 9.6S 86.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 252251Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 
86.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) IS EASING AND CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING. A 251943Z AMSR-E 
36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AND EMCOMPASSING 
ALL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER 
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VWS IS 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE SHORT TERM AS THE LLCC DRIFTS 
SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN 
WESTWARD BY A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24. A 
251523Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE 
CENTER. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
262300Z.
//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE RICHARD


260300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 91.6W OR APPROX 17NM SE OF 
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN, MEXICO. 12FT SEAS: NONE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260901Z, 261501Z, 262101Z AND 270301Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN





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TC MEGI NOW OVER THE COAST OF CHINA; 16W SHOWING RELOCATION; 17W WEAKENING;

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 23 2010 1053A (0253UTC)

STAGE: 7 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 1	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 70 GUST: 85	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 970
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 90.0	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 954.1	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -25.54	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -37.66
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 77.3	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 965.63	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 50

POSITION: 23.84N, 117.83E/SE COAST OF CHINA (MWS: 130KPH-157KPH)

FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (24.35N, 116.75E/LAND)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W[LOCAL: KATRING] OCTOBER 23 2010 1104A (0304UTC)

STAGE: 2	CATEGORY: MINIMAL DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (kt): MAX: 25 GUST: 35	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1003
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 39	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 994.6	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): -4.52	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -33.30
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 32.3	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 1000.3	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 35

POSITION: 16.10N, 135.01E/PAR OR 1110KM E OF AURORA [MWS: 46-65KPH]


FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (16.01N, 134.89E/1095KM E OF AURORA)

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W OCTOBER 23 2010 1112A (0312UTC)

STAGE: 3	CATEGORY: STRONG DEPRESSION	INTENSITY (KT): MAX: 30 GUST: 40	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 1000
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (KT): 39	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 994.6	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 20.69	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): 1.06
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 32.3	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 999.23	RAINRATE (MM): +15	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS): 30

POSITION: 22.23N, 153.76E/OPEN WESTERN PACIFIC [MWS: 56-74KPH]


FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (22.59N, 153.88E/OPEN PACIFIC)

OTHER ACTIVE SYSTEM:

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: CYCLONE GIRI

NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: STORM RICHARD

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