TC CHABA WEAKENS HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN COAST OF TOKYO, NEW TC NAMED SHARY DEVELOPED ALONG ATLANTIC, 01S WEAKENS

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 131.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
281646Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
DECEASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITHIN 12 HOURS, TY CHABA IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND FULLY TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (FINAL ADVISORY)


TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARY (20L)


AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST.  SHARY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SHARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.






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