WELCOME TO TYPHOON AND WEATHER IMAGERY. THIS BLOG CONTAINS REAL TIME WEATHER, TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES AND IMAGERY, AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST. CONTENTS OF DROP DOWN MENU CAN BE FOUND AFTER PHILIPPINE IMAGERY BELOW (SCROLL DOWNWARD). THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THIS SITE. YOU ARE FREE TO MAKE ANY COMMENT(S) OR FEEDBACK(S) ABOUT THIS BLOG.

ACTIVE LOW OR TROPICAL CYCLONES

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FERNANDA

GREG

EIGHT-E

HILARY

NORU

SONCA

KULAP

ROKE

99W LOW

90W LOW

91W LOW

TEN-E

LANGUAGE TRANSLATION

LAS PINAS CITY REALTIME DATA (CREDITS: MANILA OBSERVATORY)

PRESSURE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL WINDSPEED SOLAR RADIATION

PHILIPPINES HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGERY (10 MINUTES UPDATE) AND RAINFALL MAP (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

WESTERN PACIFIC HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY (CLICK LINK TO VIEW)
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REAL TIME HOURLY SURFACE WIND AND RAINRATE WITH VALUE

CREDIT: VENTUSKY

Error: Embedded data could not be displayed.

DOPPLER RADARs (CREDITS: CLIMATEX)

TC CHABA BEGINS EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION, 92S NEXT TC, TC SHARY, TC TOMAS,

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHABA


REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 32.7N 138.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN






TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 92S


WTXS21 PGTW 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5S 97.4E TO 10.5S 94.9E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE 
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE 
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292130Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 96.7E.  THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 
97.1E IS NOW LOCATED AT 7.9S 96.7E APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF THE 
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291917Z 
AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
PARTIAL 291539Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED 
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
302200Z.//
NNNN




TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S


TPXS11 PGTW 300300 COR


A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (SW OF SUMATRA)


B. 30/0230Z


C. 15.0S


D. 73.7E


E. FOUR/MET7


F. N/A


G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE




TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARY


deep convection has persisted this evening and has expanded a bit
over the southeast through northeast portion of the cyclone. 
Earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
within this particular area were 73 kt at flight level...and 60 kt
based on an SFMR wind estimation.  Consequently...the initial
intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory.  Shary is moving
within a region of increasing southerly shear...now 20-30 kt...and
is forecast to increase further through the period.  The shear
along with cooler sea surface temperatures should induce a
weakening trend during the next 24 hours.  Satellite imagery
indicates that a baroclinic system is rapidly approaching
Bermuda...and interaction with Shary should begin later tonight. 
The FSU cyclone phase evolution diagrams for the GFS/UKMET/CMC
unanimously agree that Shary will complete the transition to an
extratropical low within 24 hours...and this is indicated in the
official forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward...050/18.  This
general motion is expected to continue within the deep southwesterly
tropospheric flow during the next 24 hours as the system makes its
transition to a non-tropical low.  The life expectancy of
Post-tropical Shary should be short...as all of the large-scale
models suggest that the cyclone will become absorbed by the frontal
zone in 36 hours.  The official forecast is based on a blend of the
GFS...ECMWF...and the UKMET...and is adjusted to the right of the
previous advisory






TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS


as mentioned in the 0000 UTC special advisory...the Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 61
kt and SFMR measurements between 50-55 kt...albeit in some heavy
rain...on the last pass through the center.  Deep convection has
continued to increase since that time with a prominent band forming
over the western semicircle...so the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt on this advisory.

Tomas is benefiting from excellent upper-level outflow in almost all
quadrants...and the cyclone appears as though it is going through a
period of rapid intensification.  SHIPS RI guidance is indicating
at least a 40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity over
the next 24 hours...and it is likely that Tomas will reach
hurricane strength within the next 12-24 hours.  After 24
hours...nearly all the intensity guidance shows the intensity
leveling off or only increasing more modestly through 120 hours.
However...global model fields show the environment over the
Caribbean becoming favorable for continued intensification...and it
is not obvious at this point what might limit that trend.  The
official forecast continues to show steady strengthening to
category 3 strength by day 4 and remains Above All the reliable
intensity models.

The center appeared to have reformed to the north earlier this
evening...and the initial motion is estimated at 300/14.  The new
official track forecast remains largely unchanged from the
previous forecast...although the first 12-24 hours of the track
forecast have been shifted a little to the north as an artifact of
the reformation of the center.  The GFS...ECMWF...and GFDL all
support a relatively strong mid-level ridge north of the Greater
Antilles and show Tomas moving generally westward across the
south-central Caribbean Sea.  These are usually the most
trustworthy of the dynamical models...and the official forecast
favors their scenario...lying just to the south of the model
consensus.



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