CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON MEGI THREATHENS CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA

LATEST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MEGI/15W[LOCAL: JUAN] OCTOBER 17 2010 1109P (1509UTC)

STAGE: 14 OF 15	CATEGORY: TYPHOON 5	INTENSITY (kt): MAX:155 GUST: 190	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 907
DVORAK INTENSITY
INTENSITY (kt): 152	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MB): 884.7	CENTRAL REGION TEMP (°C): 20.4	CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP (°C): -78.6
ANALYSIS
INTENSITY (MEAN IN KT): 150	SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MEAN IN MB): 893.8	RAINRATE (MM): +35	FORECAST INTENSITY (NEXT 12HRS IN KT): 165

POSITION: 17.87N, 124.59E/310KM E OF TUGUEGARAO, CAGAYAN (MWS: 287KPH-352KPH)
FORECAST: NEXT 6HRS BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND POSITION (17.09N, 123.51E/110KM E OF COASTAL AREA OF CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA)


NOTE: IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO 160-165KT MAX WIND (EQUIVALENT TO 296-306KPH) BEFORE LANFALL OVER CAGAYAN-ISABELA AREA.


3 SCENARIO (BASED ON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONDITION)


1. MOVE WSW-SW (ENTRY POINT: CAGAYAN-ISABELA. EXIT POINT: ILOCOS SUR-PANGASINAN)


2. STRONGER HIGH EXPECTED TO MAKE A SW TRACK BEFORE LANDFALL (ENTRY POINT: ISABELA, EXIT POINT: PANGASINAN-NORTHERN ZAMBALES)


3. STRONGER HIGH EXPECTED TO SLOW IT DOWN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE SW-SSW BEFORE LANDFALL (ENTRY POINT: SOUTHERN ISABELA-NORTHERN AURORA, EXIT POINT: NORTHERN ZAMBALES)




JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK