TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA ATLAST MOVING AWAY, 21W HEADED TOWARD SEA OF JAPAN

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 09, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (PEPENG/19W)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (PEPENG/19W)

STRONG STAGE
LOCATION: 17.08N, 119.52E (100KM W WESTERN LUZON)
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13KM HIGH 225KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +8.17C (CENTER)
CONVECTION: HEAVY (-13.92C)
NEXT 12HRS: 30-35KT/56-65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 997.3MB VMAX: 38KT/71KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 998.0MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 994.3MB VMAX: 43KT/80KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 999.2MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 997.7MB VMAX: 38KT/70KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(PAGASA): VMAX: 55-70KPH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W

STRONG
LOCATION: 17.74N, 143.39E (240KM W NORTHERN MARIANAS IS [840KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: N 10KT/19KPH
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 10.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -37.03C (CENTER)
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-47.61C)
NEXT 12HRS: 35KT/65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 996.7MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 998.2MB VMAX: 33KT/61KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 988.2MB VMAX: 49KT/90KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 998.2MB VMAX: 33KT/61KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1002.1MB VMAX: 34KT/63KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: 30KT/56KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W

WARNING
LOCATION: 9.2N, 158.4E (MICRONESIA ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (N/A)
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1007.0MB VMAX: 15KT/28KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1007.0MB VMAX: 15KT/28KPH
(MIMIC): VMAX: N/AKT/0KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH


JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (PEPENG/19W) RARELY HITTING LAND FOR THE 3RD TIME IN THE SAME PLACE

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 08, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (PEPENG/19W)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (PEPENG/19W)

STRONG STAGE
LOCATION: 17.82N, 122.31E (10KM EAST COAST CAGAYAN)
MSLP: 1000MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH)
MOVEMENT: ALMOST STATIONARY
RAINRATE: +20-30MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 11.5KM HIGH 100KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): +13.63C (CENTER)
CONVECTION: MODERATE-HEAVY (-39.25C)
NEXT 12HRS: 30KT/56KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 996.7MB VMAX: 38KT/70KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 992.9MB VMAX: 45KT/83KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 999.1MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 997.7MB VMAX: 37KT/69KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 997.2MB VMAX: 35KT/65KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 55-70KPH


TYPHOON MELOR (QUEDAN/20W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 35.90N, 138.53E (LANDFALL JAPAN)
MSLP: 974MB
WINDSPEED: 65-80KT (120-148KPH)
MOVEMENT: NE 29KT/54KPH
RAINRATE: +5-10MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +7C AT 11.5M HIGH 50KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -N/AC (LAND)
CONVECTION: LIGHT (-N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 50KT/93KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 979.3MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 979.3MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (LOW PRESSURE AREA)

SEVERE ALERT
LOCATION: 14.2N, 143.6E (220KM W MARIANAS IS [860KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1004MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: NW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0.5C AT 12KM HIGH 400KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (N/A)
CONVECTION: LIGHT (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 1005.2MB VMAX: 23KT/43KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1005.2MB VMAX: 23KT/43KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (LOW PRESSURE AREA)

ALERT STAGE
LOCATION: 9.2N, 162.67E (MICRONESIA ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNW SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (N/A)
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 20KT/37KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1006.5MB VMAX: 19KT/35KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH

NOTE:

Tropical depression parma (pepeng/19w) rarely expected to hit land for the 3rd time almost the same place. This is the 1st recorded incident to happens that a single tropical cyclone hit land 3 times at the same place.

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

PARMA (PEPENG/19W) REMAINED STATIONARY OVER KALINGA-MT.PROVINCE AREA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 10A OCTOBER 07, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TROPICAL STORM PARMA (PEPENG/19W) AND TYPHOON MELOR (QUEDAN/20W)

TROPICAL STORM PARMA (PEPENG/19W)

MINIMAL STAGE

LOCATION: 17.39, 121.85E (KALINGA-MT. PROVINCE AREA)
MSLP: 996MB
WINDSPEED: 35-45KT (65-83KPH)
MOVEMENT: SSE 6KT/11KPH
RAINRATE: +10-30MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): N/AC (LAND)
CONVECTION: WEAK-HEAVY (N/AC)
NEXT 12HRS: 30-35KT/56-65KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 996.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 996.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 85-100KPH

TYPHOON MELOR (QUEDAN/20W)

CATEGORY 2

LOCATION: 28.68N, 131.79E (380KM ENE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN)
MSLP: 959MB
WINDSPEED: 85-100KT (157-185KPH)
MOVEMENT: NNE 16KT/30KPH
RAINRATE: +20-30MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +10C AT 12KM HIGH 30KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -28.68C (CENTER)
CONVECTION: MODERATE-HEAVY (-62.99C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-85KT/139-157KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 951.5MB VMAX: 93KT/171KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 950.1MB VMAX: 92KT/170KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 947.5MB VMAX: 95KT/176KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 947.5MB VMAX: 95KT/176KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 960.9MB VMAX: 86KT/159KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH

LOW PRESSURE 92W INVEST

ALERT

LOCATION: 10.0N, 143.4E (1540KM E EASTERN VISAYAS [840KM E PAR])
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +10MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (N/A)
CONVECTION: LIGHT (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1005.6MB VMAX: 14KT/26KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH

LOW PRESSURE 91W INVEST

WARNING

LOCATION: 8.0N, 165.9E (MICRONESIA ISLANDS)
MSLP: 1006MB
WINDSPEED: 15KT (28KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +0C AT 0KM HIGH 0KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -0C (N/A)
CONVECTION: HEAVY-SEVERE (-0C)
NEXT 12HRS: 15KT/28KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RSMC): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : N/AMB VMAX: N/AKT/N/AKPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): 1006.1MB VMAX: 26KT/48KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KPH

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

2 CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON THREATHENS NORTHERN LUZON AND GUAM RESPECTIVELY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 02, 2009)

IMAGERY OF SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) AND SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)









SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)

CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 15.36N, 124.88E (340KM E INFANTA, QUEZON)
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -66.75C (CDO)
CONVECTION: INTENSE (-70.85C)
NEXT 12HRS: 125-130KT/232-241KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 962.9MB VMAX: 80KT/149KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 974.7MB VMAX: 70KT/130KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/120KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 910.7MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 195-235KPH



SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 14.43N, 150.64E (484KM E OF GUAM [1565KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13KM HIGH 140KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -31.65C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.71C)
NEXT 12HRS: 130-140KT/241-259KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 969.2MB VMAX: 73KT/136KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 964.2MB VMAX: 82KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/117KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 925.5MB VMAX: 122KT/226KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH



NOTE: OCTOBER 3-8 FORECAST

PARMA EXPECTED TO MOVES IN GENERAL DIRECTION OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW REMAIN TO BE A THREAT AT THE MOVEMENT OF PARMA WHETHER IT WILL HIT AURORA-ISABELA OR ISABELA-CAGAYAN.

AFTER 36HRS, PARMA EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MUCH STRONGER MELOR AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARMA'S MOVEMENT... IT IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN ILOCOS REGION... AS PARMA SLOWLY WEAKENS, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP CAUSING IT TO PUSH PARMA MORE SOUTHWARD HITTING FOR THE 2ND TIME NORTHERN LUZON. INTERACTION WITH MELOR WILL ADD THIS ERRATIC MOVEMENT HENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER INLAND OR ALONG THE COAST OF ILOCOS REGION FOR 24HRS. AS MELOR MOVES MORE POLEWARD... ITS INTERACTION WITH PARMA WILL CUT OFF ALLOWING PARMA MOVES MORE WNW OR W AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON AFTER BETWEEN 72HRS (OCTOBER 8)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK

TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 4... LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 TODAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 01, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)





SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)


CATEGORY 4 (5KT AWAY TO BECOME CATEGORY 5)
LOCATION: 12.27N, 129.89E (440KM E SAMAR)
MSLP: 926MB
WINDSPEED: 130-160KT (241-296KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C AT 13KM HIGH 95KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -37.45C (EYE)
CONVECTION: STRONG-SEVERE (-69.00C)
NEXT 12HRS: 140-145KT/259-269KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 934.2MB VMAX: 111KT/206KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 917.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 964.9MB VMAX: 82KT/152KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 920.2MB VMAX: 125KT/232KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 937.2MB VMAX: 107KT/198KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 175-225KPH



TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 13.58N, 152.74E (750KM ESE OF SOUTHERN GUAM [1770KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 974MB
WINDSPEED: 65-80KT (120-148KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 6KT/11KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 12.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -78.02C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.78C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-80KT/139-148KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 985.0MB VMAX: 58KT/108KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.9MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 988.2MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

NOTE:

There are 2 scenario over the movement of typhoon parma;

1. The high pressure ridge over NE china and Japan will strengthen and eventually build-up to become a dominant steering force for typhoon parma and moves more wnw to w towards central Luzon (Aurora-Isabela area or Aurora-Quezon area).

2. The high pressure area NE of China moves more Westward and allow a poleward channel over SW part of High over Japan to become a primary steering force and eventually allow a more NW movement towards Northern Luzon (northern tip of Cagayan or just 100km away from land) before high over China buildup and pushes typhoon parma more to the North.

Any of this is possible but as of the moment the 1st scenario dominates more.. Let us pray coz this typhoon is very dangerous as it expect to become a CATEGORY 5 with windspeed of 145-150kt (269-278kph) maximum with gust of up to 180kt (333kph).
Imagine what destruction it will create to us after the devastation of tropical storm ketsana (Ondoy)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK