TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 02, 2009)
IMAGERY OF SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) AND SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)
CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 15.36N, 124.88E (340KM E INFANTA, QUEZON)
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -66.75C (CDO)
CONVECTION: INTENSE (-70.85C)
NEXT 12HRS: 125-130KT/232-241KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 962.9MB VMAX: 80KT/149KPH
DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 974.7MB VMAX: 70KT/130KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/120KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 910.7MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 195-235KPH
SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 14.43N, 150.64E (484KM E OF GUAM [1565KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13KM HIGH 140KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -31.65C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.71C)
NEXT 12HRS: 130-140KT/241-259KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 969.2MB VMAX: 73KT/136KPH
DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 964.2MB VMAX: 82KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/117KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 925.5MB VMAX: 122KT/226KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
NOTE: OCTOBER 3-8 FORECAST
PARMA EXPECTED TO MOVES IN GENERAL DIRECTION OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW REMAIN TO BE A THREAT AT THE MOVEMENT OF PARMA WHETHER IT WILL HIT AURORA-ISABELA OR ISABELA-CAGAYAN.
AFTER 36HRS, PARMA EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MUCH STRONGER MELOR AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARMA'S MOVEMENT... IT IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN ILOCOS REGION... AS PARMA SLOWLY WEAKENS, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP CAUSING IT TO PUSH PARMA MORE SOUTHWARD HITTING FOR THE 2ND TIME NORTHERN LUZON. INTERACTION WITH MELOR WILL ADD THIS ERRATIC MOVEMENT HENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER INLAND OR ALONG THE COAST OF ILOCOS REGION FOR 24HRS. AS MELOR MOVES MORE POLEWARD... ITS INTERACTION WITH PARMA WILL CUT OFF ALLOWING PARMA MOVES MORE WNW OR W AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON AFTER BETWEEN 72HRS (OCTOBER 8)
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
IMAGERY OF SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) AND SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)
CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 15.36N, 124.88E (340KM E INFANTA, QUEZON)
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 13KT/24KPH
RAINRATE: +40-50MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -66.75C (CDO)
CONVECTION: INTENSE (-70.85C)
NEXT 12HRS: 125-130KT/232-241KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 962.9MB VMAX: 80KT/149KPH
DIFFERENT AGENCIES (BASED ON DVORAK):
(JTWC): MSLP : 974.7MB VMAX: 70KT/130KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/120KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 910.7MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 195-235KPH
SUPER TYPHOON MELOR (20W)
CATEGORY 4
LOCATION: 14.43N, 150.64E (484KM E OF GUAM [1565KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 933MB
WINDSPEED: 120-150KT (222-278KPH)
MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY
RAINRATE: +30-40MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 13KM HIGH 140KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -31.65C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.71C)
NEXT 12HRS: 130-140KT/241-259KPH
DVORAKMSLP : 969.2MB VMAX: 73KT/136KPH
DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 964.2MB VMAX: 82KT/113KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.6MB VMAX: 59KT/117KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 978.7MB VMAX: 65KT/109KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 925.5MB VMAX: 122KT/226KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH
NOTE: OCTOBER 3-8 FORECAST
PARMA EXPECTED TO MOVES IN GENERAL DIRECTION OF ISABELA-CAGAYAN AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW REMAIN TO BE A THREAT AT THE MOVEMENT OF PARMA WHETHER IT WILL HIT AURORA-ISABELA OR ISABELA-CAGAYAN.
AFTER 36HRS, PARMA EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MUCH STRONGER MELOR AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARMA'S MOVEMENT... IT IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN ILOCOS REGION... AS PARMA SLOWLY WEAKENS, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP CAUSING IT TO PUSH PARMA MORE SOUTHWARD HITTING FOR THE 2ND TIME NORTHERN LUZON. INTERACTION WITH MELOR WILL ADD THIS ERRATIC MOVEMENT HENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EITHER INLAND OR ALONG THE COAST OF ILOCOS REGION FOR 24HRS. AS MELOR MOVES MORE POLEWARD... ITS INTERACTION WITH PARMA WILL CUT OFF ALLOWING PARMA MOVES MORE WNW OR W AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON AFTER BETWEEN 72HRS (OCTOBER 8)
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
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