TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W) RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO CATEGORY 4... LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 TODAY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY (AS OF 1P OCTOBER 01, 2009)

IMAGERY OF TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)





SUPER TYPHOON PARMA (PEPING/19W)


CATEGORY 4 (5KT AWAY TO BECOME CATEGORY 5)
LOCATION: 12.27N, 129.89E (440KM E SAMAR)
MSLP: 926MB
WINDSPEED: 130-160KT (241-296KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 14KT/26KPH
RAINRATE: 17MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +3C AT 13KM HIGH 95KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -37.45C (EYE)
CONVECTION: STRONG-SEVERE (-69.00C)
NEXT 12HRS: 140-145KT/259-269KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 934.2MB VMAX: 111KT/206KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 917.6MB VMAX: 127KT/235KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 964.9MB VMAX: 82KT/152KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 920.2MB VMAX: 125KT/232KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 937.2MB VMAX: 107KT/198KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 175-225KPH



TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

CATEGORY 1
LOCATION: 13.58N, 152.74E (750KM ESE OF SOUTHERN GUAM [1770KM E OF PAR])
MSLP: 974MB
WINDSPEED: 65-80KT (120-148KPH)
MOVEMENT: WNW 6KT/11KPH
RAINRATE: 15MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +2C AT 12.5KM HIGH 150KM RADIUS
CENTER TEMP.: (DVORAK): -78.02C (EYE)
CONVECTION: SEVERE (-75.78C)
NEXT 12HRS: 75-80KT/139-148KPH

DVORAK
MSLP : 985.0MB VMAX: 58KT/108KPH

DIFFERENT AGENCIES:
(JTWC): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RSMC): MSLP : 983.9MB VMAX: 59KT/109KPH
(CIMSS): MSLP : 985.6MB VMAX: 57KT/106KPH
(RAMMB-CIRA): MSLP : 988.2MB VMAX: 64KT/119KPH
(PAGASA): MSLP : 0MB VMAX: 0KT/0KPH

NOTE:

There are 2 scenario over the movement of typhoon parma;

1. The high pressure ridge over NE china and Japan will strengthen and eventually build-up to become a dominant steering force for typhoon parma and moves more wnw to w towards central Luzon (Aurora-Isabela area or Aurora-Quezon area).

2. The high pressure area NE of China moves more Westward and allow a poleward channel over SW part of High over Japan to become a primary steering force and eventually allow a more NW movement towards Northern Luzon (northern tip of Cagayan or just 100km away from land) before high over China buildup and pushes typhoon parma more to the North.

Any of this is possible but as of the moment the 1st scenario dominates more.. Let us pray coz this typhoon is very dangerous as it expect to become a CATEGORY 5 with windspeed of 145-150kt (269-278kph) maximum with gust of up to 180kt (333kph).
Imagine what destruction it will create to us after the devastation of tropical storm ketsana (Ondoy)

JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK