IMAGERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
STRUCTURE OF 12W
NEAR THE CENTER
8-28-09 1P
LOCATION: 22.60N, 148.02E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1000.0MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 998.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13.5KM HIGH 170KM RADIUS (DVORAK: -62.35C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
STRUCTURE OF 12W
NEAR THE CENTER8-28-09 1P
LOCATION: 22.60N, 148.02E (OPEN PACIFIC)
MSLP: 1000.0MB
WINDSPEED: 30-40KT (56-74KPH [DVORAK: MSLP: 998.8MB VMAX: 32KT/59KPH])
MOVEMENT: STATIONARY
RAINRATE: 21MM/HR
EYE TEMP: +1C AT 13.5KM HIGH 170KM RADIUS (DVORAK: -62.35C)
NEXT 12HRS: 40KT/74KPH
DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO HAS TRACKEDNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AS BANDING HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE SYSTEM. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 26.1N 146.3E AND HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A TROUGH NEAR 22.7N 163.0E HAS CONTINUED TO ALLOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. SOUTH OF THE LLCC UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM.
CURRENTLY TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).AS A ID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN LIFTS NORTHWARD,THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER JAPAN CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VIGOROUS AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED, LEADING TO A SLOWER INTENISIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24. SST AND VWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW BASED ON POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION LEADING TO LIMITED GUIDANCE.
BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN BY TAU 120 AS THE STR CONTINUES BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT THE FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT TAU 120 ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO HAS TRACKEDNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP UNDER A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AS BANDING HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE SYSTEM. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS DEVELOPED AROUND 26.1N 146.3E AND HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A TROUGH NEAR 22.7N 163.0E HAS CONTINUED TO ALLOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. SOUTH OF THE LLCC UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM.
CURRENTLY TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).AS A ID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN LIFTS NORTHWARD,THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER JAPAN CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VIGOROUS AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED, LEADING TO A SLOWER INTENISIFICATION BEYOND TAU 24. SST AND VWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW BASED ON POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION LEADING TO LIMITED GUIDANCE.
BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN BY TAU 120 AS THE STR CONTINUES BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, BUT THE FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT TAU 120 ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CLOSE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAPAN.
JUST VOTE OR COMMENT FOR FEEDBACK
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