- The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains warmer than the long-term average in central and eastern areas.
- The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific also remains warmer than the long-term average, although it has cooled slightly in recent weeks.
- The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is −13; The SOI has fallen rapidly over the last week after rising through most of January.
- Trade winds have weakened significantly in the last fortnight, with westerly wind anomalies evident across both the western and central equatorial Pacific this week.
- Cloudiness near the date-line remains above average.
- Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict tropical Pacific temperatures to cool, although are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until the southern hemisphere autumn.
SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY.
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