05B SHOWING SOME RI, 02S WEAKENS, 90W REMAIN OVER COAST OF VIETNAM, 91W DEVELOP OFF BICOL REGION

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B


REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN 
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AS IT CONSOLIDATES UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. BANDING FEATURES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED IN 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
BUILD. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE STEADIED AT A 3.0/3.0 OR 45 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW FIX CYCLES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 
A 050228Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. BOTH PLACE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS CONVECTION SHEARS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING 
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
ALONG THIS RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL WITH INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48, BUT NOT BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 75 KNOTS. A 
DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC 
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS, AND A DEEP POOL OF WARM WATER WILL ALL SUPPORT 
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND 
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO EMERGING INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS FORECAST LIES 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH 
IS TRENDING SOUTH OF EARLIER RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z 
AND 060900Z.//
NNNN




TXXS25 KNES 050842




A.  02S (ANGGREK)


B.  05/0830Z


C.  15.9S


D.  89.9E


E.  THREE/MET-7


F.  TOO WEAK


G.  IR/EIR/VIS


H.  REMARKS...ANGGREK HAS BECOME A REMNANT SWIRL OF LL CLOUDS WITH
NO ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION YIELDING NO DT. MET IS 1.0. PT IS .5. FT
BASED ON DT.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN FOR 02S(ANGGREK) UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.




TROPICAL CYCLONE 90W


TXPN22 KNES 050902
SIMWIR


A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)


B.  05/0830Z


C.  13.3N


D.  110.3E


E.  FIVE/MTSAT


F.  T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS


G.  IR/EIR/VIS


H.  REMARKS...LL SWIRL CONTINUES TO BE SEEN JUST OFF VIETNAM COASTLINE
WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THOUGH NONE OF THE CLUSTERS
YIELDS BANDING FOR NO DT. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT BASED ON PT.



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