#OfelPH Severe Bulletin October 14 2020 1200AM

⚠ BULLETIN



October 14, 2020 1200AM



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: 94W

LOCAL NAME: #OfelPH



STAGE: WEAK

COORDINATES: 11.5°N, 126.6°E

LOCATION: 120km East of Borongan city, Eastern Samar



DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY

US (1min aver.): ≤37km/hr; GUST: No data km/hr

PAGASA (10min aver.): 45km/hr; GUST: 55km/hr

CWB: 43km/hr; GUST: 72km/hr



MEAN WINDSPEED: 47.1km/hr

MSLP: 1004mb

Track: NNW to NW at 10km/hr

Rainrate*: ≥50mm/hr



Surface wind analysis: 42.6km/hr (1007.6mb)



Sea surface Temperature: 30-31°C

Ocean Heat Content: Very high to extreme, influx

Relative Vorticity: moderate (increasing)

Vertical windshear (average): 7.5kt/13.9km/hr (low, decreasing)



Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveal a broad low level circulation with disorganized, but consolidating flaring convection. Invest 94W remains over at favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear, good equatorward and poleward outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures with influx of very high to extreme ocean heat content. Global models rmmains in agreement that invest 94W will continue to track NW to WNW and still possibly cross either areas of Samar-Bicol area as entry point by October 14 and track over Southern Luzon (either areas of CALABARZON-MIMAROPA-NCR) before consolidating further in the south china sea from late October 14-most of October 15. Overall the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is likely despite of landfall due to favourable environment across its track.



BASED ON 11PM PAGASA BULLETIN

TCWS 1: The southern portion of Quezon (San Francisco,San Andres,San Narciso, Mulanay,Catanauan, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Atimonan, Unisan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo) and Burias Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and the northern portion of Leyte (Tabango, Leyte, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Pastrana, Dagami, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Palo, Santa Fe, Alangalang, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel, Barugo,Tunga)



For realtime imagery visit the following link below:



Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html

Nangka/#NikaPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Nangka.html

94W Invest/#OfelPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Disturbance-94W.html







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