#OfelPH Severe weather Bulletin 10142020-11AM

⚠ BULLETIN



October 14, 2020 1100AM



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: 94W

LOCAL NAME: #OfelPH



STAGE: WEAK

COORDINATES: 12.4°N, 124.0°E

LOCATION: Ticao pass



DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY

US (1min aver.): ≤37km/hr

PAGASA (10min aver.): 45km/hr; GUST: 55km/hr

CWB: 43km/hr; GUST: 72km/hr



MEAN WINDSPEED: 47.7km/hr

MSLP: 1004mb

Track: WNW at 19km/hr

Rainrate*: ≥50mm/hr



Surface wind analysis: 48.2km/hr (1006.8mb)



Sea surface Temperature: 30-31°C

Ocean Heat Content: Very high to extreme, influx

Relative Vorticity: High (increasing)

Vertical windshear (average): 12.5kt/23.2km/hr (low, decreasing)



Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery reveal a broad and ill-defined low level circulation with disorganized, but consolidating flaring convection over NW and W quadrant. Recent relative vorticity shows some increase, signifying that the Invest 94W's possible intensification in the coming hours. Invest 94W remains over at favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear, good equatorward and poleward outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures with influx of very high ocean heat content across its track. Global models remains in agreement that invest 94W will continue to track WNW and expected to cross Southern Luzon particular the areas of CALABARZON-MIMAROPA area today 'til early tomorrow before consolidating further in the south china sea. Overall, due to its current increase in relative vorticity, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 12-24 hours is high despite of continues landfall due to favourable environment across its track.



BASED ON 11AM PAGASA BULLETIN

TCWS 1: Batangas, the southern portion of Laguna (Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, San Pablo City, Calauan, Alaminos, Los Baños, Bay, Magdalena), the central and southern portions of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, Mulanay, San Francisco, Catanauan, Lopez, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Atimonan, Tayabas City, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio), Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands)



For realtime imagery visit the following link below:



Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html

Nangka/#NikaPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Nangka.html

94W Invest/#OfelPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Disturbance-94W.html







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