#PepitoPH #Saudel 10202020 -0730pm- Severe Weather Bulletin

⚠ BULLETIN October 20, 2020 0725PM TROPICAL CYCLONE CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: Saudel LOCAL NAME: #PepitoPH STAGE: Minimal Tropical Storm COORDINATES: 16.06°N, 122.08°E LOCATION: 30km East of Dinalungan, Aurora (nearing landfall) DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY US (1min aver.): 75km/hr; GUST: 93km/hr JAPAN-JMA (10 min aver.): 65km/hr; GUST: 93km/hr PAGASA (10min aver.): 75km/hr; GUST: 90km/hr HONGKONG-HKO: 65km/hr CHINA-NMC: 65km/hr TAIWAN-CWB: 65km/hr; GUST: 91km/hr SOUTH KOREA-KMA: 69/hr MEAN WINDSPEED: 78.1km/hr MSLP: 996mb Track: West at 20km/hr SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 77.8km/hr (998.6mb) RAINRATE: ≥90mm/hr AUTOMATED DVORAK: 94.5km/hr (989.8mb) CLOUD TEMPERATURE: -84.7°C EYE/CENTER TEMPERATURE: -88.1°C SCENE TYPE: Uniform CDO cloud region SEA SURFACE TEMP.: 30°C OCEAN HEAT CONTENT: Very high, influx RELATIVE VORTICITY: High (increased) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (average): 14.4kt/26.7km/hr (light, decreased slightly) STEERING WIND: Deep layered subtropical ridge over Northeast with an extension of the STR to the north TS Saudel (#PepitoPH) intensified slightly and begin moving more to the west in response over the steering effect of deep layered subtropical ridge over Northeast with an extension of the STR to the north endangering Aurora-Isabela area. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad convective banding wrapping into low-level circulation center (LLCC) with cooling tops observed over thermal imagery. Upper-level analysis reveals a favorable environment with near-radial outflow and low vertical wind shear as low-level environment remains conducive due to warm SST and High value of ocean heat content. TS Saudel is expected to continue tracking more to the west under the steering influence of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the northeast with an extension of the STR to the north. For the next 24hrs (up to October 23, 0600am), TS Saudel might have some slight intensification or maintain of intensity prior its landfall any hours tonight over near Casiguran, Aurora (75-85km/hr maximum windspeed) before transversing over Quirino, Southern Nueva Viscaya-North Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan as exit point. POSSIBLE AREAS OF NEAR THE CENTER OR DIRECT HIT: Aurora, Quirino, Southern Nueva Viscaya-North Nueva Ecija and Pangasinan as exit point. BASED ON 5PM PAGASA BULLETIN TCWS#2: La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Aurora, the southern portion of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Tagudin), the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan) and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) TCWS#1: Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the rest of northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real) and the rest of Zambales For realtime imagery visit the following link below: Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html Saudel/#PepitoPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Saudel.html Kindly visit, subscribe and share this youtube channel to keep updated for latest weather bulletin, advisory and forecast. Just click the link below https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfvT2t7-KClwjJZXrIV0AYg/