#Pepito #Saudel 10202020-1200pm Severe Weather Bulletin

⚠ BULLETIN October 20, 2020 1200PM TROPICAL CYCLONE CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: Saudel LOCAL NAME: #PepitoPH STAGE: Minimal Tropical Storm COORDINATES: 15.81°N, 124.26°E LOCATION: 284km Eastof Baler, Aurora DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY US (1min aver.): 65km/hr; GUST: 83km/hr JAPAN-JMA (10 min aver.): 65km/hr; GUST: 93km/hr PAGASA (10min aver.): 65km/hr; GUST: 80km/hr HONGKONG-HKO: 65km/hr CHINA-NMC: 65km/hr TAIWAN-CWB: 65km/hr; GUST: 90km/hr SOUTH KOREA-KMA: 65/hr MEAN WINDSPEED: 73.9km/hr MSLP: 1000mb Track: West-Northwest at 25km/hr SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 66.7km/hr (1001.1mb) RAINRATE: ≥75mm/hr AUTOMATED DVORAK: 94.5km/hr (991.9mb) CLOUD TEMPERATURE: -50.4°C EYE/CENTER TEMPERATURE: -47.1°C SCENE TYPE: Curved band with 0.67 arc in lt gray maximum curved band with 0.80 arc in lt gray at 14:48:36N, 123:15:36E SEA SURFACE TEMP.: 30°C OCEAN HEAT CONTENT: Very high, influx RELATIVE VORTICITY: High (increased) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (average): 15.1kt/28.0km/hr (light-moderate, decreased slightly) STEERING WIND: Deep layered subtropical ridge over Northeast with an extension of the STR to the north The system intensified into minimal tropical storm named Saudel means, Legendary Pohnpei Chief Soudelor's trusted guard/soldier (#PepitoPH) as it continues to endanger Aurora-Isabela area. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed, slowly-consolidating system with broad convective banding wrapping into a ragged low-level circulation center (LLCC). Upper-level analysis reveals a favorable environment with near-radial outflow and low vertical wind shear as low-level environment remain conducive due to warm SST and High value of ocean heat content. TS Saudel is tracking west-northwestward along the southwest periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge (STR) positioned to the northeast with an extension of the STR to the north. For the next 24hrs (October 22, 1200pm), TS Saudel continues to track WNW with possible minimal intensification prior landfall over either areas of Casiguran, Aurora-Palanan-Isabela as entry point with 75-85km/hr maximum windspeed late this evening if speed wont change. POSSIBLE AREAS OF NEAR THE CENTER OR DIRECT HIT: Northern Aurora-Southern Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Viscaya-Ifugao, Benguet, La Union-Pangasinan as exit point. BASED ON 11AM PAGASA BULLETIN TCWS#2: La Union, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Aurora, the southern portion of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Tagudin), the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan) and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) TCWS#1: Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, Vinzons), Catanduanes, the rest of northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real) and the rest of Zambales For realtime imagery visit the following link below: Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html Saudel/#PepitoPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-Saudel.html Kindly visit, subscribe and share this youtube channel to keep updated for latest weather bulletin, advisory and forecast. Just click the link below https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfvT2t7-KClwjJZXrIV0AYg/