#PepitoPH, 19W 102020-1200AM Severe Weather Bulletin

⚠ BULLETIN October 20, 2020 1200AM TROPICAL CYCLONE CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: 19W LOCAL NAME: #PepitoPH STAGE: STRONG DEPRESSION COORDINATES: 14.33°N, 126.40°E LOCATION: 248km East-Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY US (1min aver.): 56km/hr; GUST: 74km/hr JAPAN-JMA (10 min aver.): 56km/hr; GUST: 83km/hr PAGASA (10min aver.): 55km/hr; GUST: 70km/hr HONGKONG-HKO: 45km/hr CHINA-NMC: 54km/hr TAIWAN-CWB: 54km/hr; GUST: 83km/hr SOUTH KOREA-KMA: No data km/hr MEAN WINDSPEED: 63.0km/hr MSLP: 1002mb Track: West-Northwest at 20km/hr SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 63.0km/hr (1002.3mb) RAINRATE: ≥70mm/hr AUTOMATED DVORAK: 63.0km/hr (1004.5mb) CLOUD TEMPERATURE: -53.6°C EYE/CENTER TEMPERATURE: -58.4°C SCENE TYPE: Uniform CDO cloud region SEA SURFACE TEMP.: 30°C OCEAN HEAT CONTENT: Extreme, influx RELATIVE VORTICITY: moderate-high (steady) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (average): 15.3kt/28.3km/hr (light-moderate, increased) STEERING WIND: Subtropical ridge over North extending SW towards Northern Vietnam Latest animated satellite imagery shows tropical depression 19W's (#PepitoPH) convection continues to developed deeply over west of LLC while the east remains less. The system currently tracking along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a center near 30N 155E to far Northern Vietnam. Favourable environment expected to continue supporting further intensification as very warm SST, influx of high ocean heat content, low but increased vertical windshear and moderate upper-level outflow on the divergent southwest quadrant of an upper level anticyclone. For the next 24hrs (October 21, 1200am), TD 19W is expected to experience some increase in easterly shear, blowing most of its convection off to the west of LLC (as seen on latest satellite animation) while it continue be steer generally west-northwestward along the periphery of the steering deep-layered subtropical ridge over north with gradual intensification prior landfall, possibly into a strong tropical storm with 90-95km/hr maximum windspeed as it approaches Aurora-Isabela area which will be an entry point based on most agencies trajectory. BASED ON 11PM PAGASA BULLETIN TCWS#1: Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Islands, the extreme northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons) and Catanduanes. For realtime imagery visit the following link below: Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html 19W/#PepitoPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-19W.html Kindly visit, subscribe and share this youtube channel to keep updated for latest weather bulletin, advisory and forecast. Just click the link below https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfvT2t7-KClwjJZXrIV0AYg/