#PepitoPH/19W 10192020 - 0700PM Severe Weather Bulletin

⚠ BULLETIN October 19, 2020 0700PM TROPICAL CYCLONE CODE/INTERNATIONAL NAME: 19W LOCAL NAME: #PepitoPH STAGE: STRONG DEPRESSION COORDINATES: 14.18°N, 127.46°E LOCATION: 370km East-Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes DIFFERENT AGENCIES INTENSITY US (1min aver.): 56km/hr; GUST: 74km/hr JAPAN-JMA (10 min aver.): 56km/hr; GUST: 83km/hr PAGASA (10min aver.): 55km/hr; GUST: 70km/hr HONGKONG-HKO: 45km/hr CHINA-NMC: 54km/hr TAIWAN-CWB: 54km/hr; GUST: 83km/hr SOUTH KOREA-KMA: No data km/hr MEAN WINDSPEED: 61.1km/hr MSLP: 1002mb Track: West-Northwest at 20km/hr SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 61.1km/hr (1002.9mb) RAINRATE: ≥75mm/hr AUTOMATED DVORAK: 59.3km/hr (1002.0mb) CLOUD TEMPERATURE: -44.3°C EYE/CENTER TEMPERATURE: -81.4°C SCENE TYPE: Irregular CDO SEA SURFACE TEMP.: 30°C OCEAN HEAT CONTENT: Extreme, influx RELATIVE VORTICITY: moderate-high (steady) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (average): 10.8kt/20.0km/hr (light-moderate, decreasing) STEERING WIND: Subtropical ridge extending SW towards Northern Vietnam Tropical depression 19W (#PepitoPH) began consolidating rapidly as continues formation of hot towers were observed based on 3-min himawari animation for the past 3 hours, indicating LLC started intensifying. The system currently tracking along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a center near 30N 155E to far Northern Vietnam. Favourable environment expected to continue supporting further intensification as very warm SST, low vertical windshear and moderate upper-level outflow on the divergent southwest quadrant of an upper level anticyclone. For the next 24hrs (October 20, 0600pm), TD 19W will continue to track generally west-northwestward along the periphery of the steering ridge and expected to intensify possibly into 95km/hr maximum windspeed while it approaches Northern and Central Luzon particularly Aurora-Isabela area which might be an entry point based on current trajectory. BASED ON 5PM PAGASA BULLETIN TCWS#1: Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, the eastern portion of Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Rizal, Tabuk City, Tanudan), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig), Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, San Jose City, Lupao, Llanera, Rizal, Bongabon, Laur, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, General Tinio, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, Muñoz City, Talavera, Santo Domingo, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo), and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) For realtime imagery visit the following link below: Philippines Doppler radar: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2012/08/philippines-doppler-radar-noah.html 19W/#PepitoPH realtime imagery link: https://weathergaines.blogspot.com/2020/10/Tropical-Cyclone-19W.html Kindly visit, subscribe and share this youtube channel to keep updated for latest weather bulletin, advisory and forecast. Just click the link below https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfvT2t7-KClwjJZXrIV0AYg/